☕️Performance Anxiety

Good morning.

Sharemarkets might be at record highs, but the unpredictability of President Donald Trump’s second term is denting confidence inside Australia's biggest boardrooms as large companies freeze, Capital Brief reports.

Data from East & Partners shows that around one in five (21.5%) of Australia's largest corporates is pausing M&A due to Trump related uncertainty, while fewer than one in ten are actively hunting acquisition targets.

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Market movers

Shares in Temple & Webster fell almost 12% Friday after UBS called its valuation “extreme”, warning the stock price is hard to justify even with booming profits and strong momentum.

The quick sync

• Australia’s innovation ecosystem has the potential to lift productivity and drive growth if backed by coordinated public and private support, writes David Sabow. (Capital Brief)

• Australia must make it easier to do business to fix falling productivity and avoid leaving future generations worse off writes Bran Black. (Capital Brief)

• Labor is holding off on AI copyright reform until at least later this year, despite industry lobbying and a push from the Productivity Commission. (Capital Brief)

• Chalmers’ economic reform talkfest begins. Don’t expect big bang reforms, just the opening moves in a longer game. (Capital Brief)

• Central bankers flock to Jackson Hole at pivotal moment. (Bloomberg)

Trading floor

M&A

• Ed Craven backs Mixi’s PointsBet bid, pressuring Betr. (AFR)

• Amcor to sell $1.5bn drinks packaging unit amid soda slump. (The Australian)

• Allgas Energy up for sale, tipped to fetch $600m+. (The Australian)

• Gina Rinehart’s Hancock approved to bid for Saudi mining rights. (AFR)

• Government may bid for Healthscope to add hospitals to public system. (The Australian)

• Peabody may back out of $5.8bn Anglo coal mines deal, dispute looms. (The Australian)

• Burford Capital seeks to buy equity stakes in US law firms. (FT)

• Iress is under pressure from major shareholders to engage with PE bidders and consider an ASX exit after years of stalled progress and leadership turmoil. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• PC Gold hires brokers for $70m ASX listing. (AFR)

• Gilmour Space eyes $100m raise, IPO in 3 years after failed first launch. (AFR)

• ConocoPhillips’ Otway Basin gas project draws retailer interest. (AFR)

• Robbie Williams backs Heaps Normal’s global no-alcohol push. (AFR)

• Business groups push for 25% red tape cut at reform talks. (Capital Brief)

• Mirvac gains ground in investor push to oust Lendlease from $10b property fund. (AFR)

• Orbx, backed by private equity, plans ASX float after Universal deal. (AFR)

• Keyview carves out bad loans into 121 Loans. (AFR)

• A forgotten franchise helped Banter Toys build a $200m Pokémon card business now battling scalpers, crime and runaway demand. (AFR)

• Winklevoss twins' Gemini reveals lower revenue and wider loss in US IPO filing. (Reuters)

• Qantas about to be hit with a multi-million dollar penalty as the Federal Court rules on one of the most serious workplace law breaches in Aussie history. (AFR)

• White House ranks US companies on loyalty to Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill agenda. (Axios)(The Telegraph)

• Sell-side analysts who use upbeat LinkedIn posts to promote themselves are less accurate forecasters but advance faster in their careers, new research finds. (AFR)

• Equity analysts still outperform AI in uncovering red flags, hidden value and accounting irregularities. (AFR)

• Extended bid deadline on $2b Central Queensland wind and solar play shapes up as key test for clean energy investment. (Capital Brief)

VC 

• Block Earner raises $75m for bitcoin-backed home loans. (AFR)

People moves

• Luke Sayers’ Tenet Advisory reshapes governance amid quiet CEO transition. (AFR)

The watercooler