☕️P(E)mpty hat

Good morning.

Private equity is passing the hat and finding it mostly empty. According to Preqin, global fundraising has slumped to a seven-year low of US$592 billion ($921.1 billion) in the 12 months to June, despite firms dangling cut-price fees and investor sweeteners that would have been unthinkable a few years ago.

High rates, frozen exits and a glut of managers (think mega-fund targets from the likes of Advent, Permira and Bridgepoint) have turned the once-glittering asset class into a buyer’s market, and investors still seem perfectly content to walk away from the bargain bin.

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Market movers

Shares of buy now pay later company Zip Co skyrocketed Friday after it posted a stronger-than-expected $79.89 million full-year profit and flagged a potential Nasdaq listing to support its growing US business. The company said more than 80% of divisional cash earnings now come from the US, where customer numbers and transaction volumes are rising sharply.

But at the other end of the spectrum, shares in Guzman y Gomez and Inghams plummeted by over 18% and 20% respectively, capping a brutal day for consumer stocks.

The quick sync

• XRG and Carlyle remain committed to their $36.4b bid for Santos, and expect to clarify soon whether a formal offer is imminent. (Capital Brief)

• Ted O’Brien throws shade at Labor’s AI caution, backing a freer hand on tech to stop Australia missing out on the AI boom. (Capital Brief)

• Tech Council rift deepens as Farquhar’s AI copyright push sparks backlash from creatives and Canberra. (Capital Brief)

• Chalmers rules out new super tax moves this week, shelving changes to high-balance concessions as pressure builds for broader reform. (Capital Brief)

• Jim Chalmers’ tax talk bought time, but the real decisions were punted to the next election. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Cuscal shareholders set to sell as IPO escrows lift. (AFR)

• Macquarie may sell $2.5bn Paraway Pastoral amid investor pressure. (The Australian)

• XRG and Carlyle stress national interest in $36.4b Santos bid. (Capital Brief)

• Allegro prepares $500m sale of Strait Link sea freight business. (AFR)

• Bega weighs reclaiming brands after losing Mainland bid to Lactalis. (The Australian)

• Breville is betting on China’s growing homemade coffee trend. (AFR)

• National Storage stake complicates Public Storage’s bid for Abacus. (The Australian)

• ACL sells Healius stake, merger hopes fade. (The Australian)

Capital Markets

• US law firm, The Schall Law Firm, probes James Hardie after profit collapse. (AFR)

• Rio Tinto halts Simandou project after fatality. (AFR)

• HSBC to drop 1,000+ wealthy Middle East clients after AML breaches. (Capital Brief)

• AAM seeks exit for poultry fund after ProTen’s $1.3b sale. (AFR)

• InfraBuild CEO battles imports as Gupta’s empire unravels. (AFR)

• Trump’s tariffs are smashing ASX earnings and the final week could bring more bruising surprises. (Capital Brief)

• GYG’s record sales and first dividend couldn’t stop a $1b wipeout, as soft guidance and looming exits smashed investor confidence. (Capital Brief)

• Secret audio surveillance of remote staff lands compliance giant Safetrac in legal hot water. (AFR)

• NSW unveils plan for 10,000 homes and Sydney’s first new heavy rail station in a decade at Woollahra. (AFR)

• Big super pressures Qantas on exec pay, warning cultural fixes can’t just be for show. (AFR)

• Wall Street is ditching VIX calls in favour of S&P 500 put spreads as investors brace for Nvidia earnings and the Fed’s next move. (Bloomberg)

• Powell opened the door to a rate cut in September, but the Fed is anything but united. (Bloomberg)

VC 

• Skutopia, founded by ex-News Corp managers Talea Bader and Emily Townsend, raises $100m to scale robot-run warehouses. (AFR)

• Blackbird Ventures’s $200m fund faces decline, depends on space tech bets. (AFR)

• Ed Craven’s Kick under fire for live-streaming man’s death. (AP)

People moves

• HSBC to cut jobs, tighten corporate lending in Australia. (AFR)

The watercooler