☕️ Venezuelan distress

Good morning.

Maduro’s out. And with Trump, Rubio and US oil now apparently running Venezuela, its defaulted debt is ripping. PDVSA (still JV’d with Chevron) and sovereign bonds have doubled in price, now trading in the 20s-30s cents on the dollar, after sitting near zero. Some are reportedly pricing restructurings at 50 to 60 cents.

The picture’s still quite murky of course, and Bloomberg explains a restructuring of the country’s debt involves unwinding a USD154 billion ($230.6 billion) web of defaulted bonds owed to creditors from Wall Street to Russia. Something analysts say will only happen once a permanent government is in place.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in 4DMedical jumped on Friday after signing a commercial deal with the Cleveland Clinic to deploy its CT:VQ respiratory imaging technology. The company also named early investor Julian Sutton as CFO and executive director, as it prepares for an accelerated scale-up following a global distribution agreement with Philips.

The quick sync

• 2026 may mark peak growth as economists split on RBA rate hikes. (Capital Brief)

• Weebit Nano CEO warns Australia risks a strategic blunder on chips as the company lands its biggest licensing deal yet with Texas Instruments. (Capital Brief)

• Australia’s private capital rebound puts these dealmakers on a busier path into 2026. (AFR)

• Conflicts, poor transparency riddle the $256b managed account market. (AFR)

• China social media hails US Maduro move as a Taiwan template. (Bloomberg)

Trading floor

M&A

• Nickel Industries rallies on Sphere’s 10% stake and offtake deal. (Capital Brief)

• ACCC aims to fast-track most merger approvals under new rules. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Judo Bank remains on track for FY26 profit growth, supported by a $13.4b loan book. (Capital Brief)

• Paspaley pivots to luxury hospitality as pearl profits fall. (AFR)

• Northern Star downgrades FY26 production outlook after operational setbacks. (Capital Brief)

• Elon Musk’s AI chatbot Grok faces backlash after generating illegal abusive images of minors. (AFR)

• BYD overtakes Tesla as global EV sales leader. (AFR)

• Commonwealth Bank tops 2025 Australian bond market ahead of AI-driven deal surge. (AFR)

• OPEC+ holds output steady despite rising geopolitical tensions. (Capital Brief)

• Sodexo boosts FIFO services ahead of $2.5b contract decision. (AFR)

• GCQ invests $200m in property portals amid AI-driven sell-off fears. (AFR)

• Weebit Nano CEO warns Australia must boost chip investment to stay competitive in AI. (Capital Brief)

• Cathie Wood’s ARK fintech ETF defies 2025 slump, gaining 30% on AI bet. (Bloomberg)

VC 

• Tom Waterhouse’s VC fund posts nearly 3900% returns. (AFR)

People moves

• 4DMedical names Julian Sutton CFO to drive its global scale-up. (Capital Brief)

• Mesoblast announces board changes as Jane Bell steps down as chair. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler