☕️ US election bets

Good morning.

In the run-up to a nail-biting US presidential election, Bitcoin's value is riding the same rollercoaster as pro-crypto Donald Trump's fluctuating fortunes in the polls and betting markets.

As Trump's odds of reclaiming the Oval Office dipped below 53% on betting site Polymarket over the weekend (down from 67% last Thursday) following narrowing polls, Bitcoin took a nosedive to US$67,600, according to Coinbase.  

Speaking of bets, Macquarie CEO Shemara Wikramanayake told Capital Brief’s Andrew Cornell that unlike Bitcoin, the fate of the Millionaires’ Factory’s mid-term infrastructure investments won’t be correlated with the election result.

“They will keep going no matter who is in power after November 5,” she said referring to Macquarie’s infrastructure projects in that country.

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Market movers

Macquarie’s shares copped a 3.59% slap on Friday, as the market grumbled over a 23% half-on-half profit dip.

The Group’s AUM dance barely changed the tune, sliding down 2%. While the dividend's slightly up, the result missed Visible Alpha consensus and UBS’s banking analyst John Storey told clients Macquarie now needs to deliver $2.5 billion in second half net profit after tax — which depends on asset realisations from key portfolios.

The quick sync

• Labor names over 40 energy, finance and communications firms as “systems of national significance” in a cybersecurity overhaul. (Capital Brief)

• Proxy adviser Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) calls on Nine shareholders to vote against chair Catherine West and director Andrew Lancaster over scandal-fueled toxic culture. (Capital Brief)

• RBA expected to hold rates, but all eyes on its language amid a pivotal week for global markets amid US elections. (Capital Brief)

• MinRes paid 70% above market rates to rent properties owned by CEO Chris Ellison, according to independent valuations. (AFR)

• Rio Tinto pushes for a deal with Entree and Mongolia to secure tenements near Oyu Tolgoi and avoid a copper production slump. (AFR)

Trading floor

M&A

• Berkshire Hathaway sold 100 million Apple shares, reducing its stake significantly since 2023. (Capital Brief)

• Quadrant's RiteBite is attracting interest from major confectionery players, with Mondelez viewed as a likely buyer. (The Australian)

• Kohlberg Kravis Roberts is considering selling Laser Clinics Australia. (The Australian)

• HMC Capital joins Neoen’s Victorian renewables auction, with Iberdrola reportedly boosting bidding momentum. (AFR)

• Equitise, lacking fresh funding, calls in administrators to manage its operations. (AFR)

• CPE Capital is close to a $200m acquisition of Perth's British Sausage Company, a supplier to major supermarkets. (AFR)

• Yancoal’s bid for Anglo American assets faces uncertainty due to a lack of final approval from its Chinese government backer. (The Australian)

• Bain Capital and Kohlberg & Company are competing in TPG's $4bn sale of Novotech. (AFR)

• Kelsian Group secures a five-year extension for NT ferry services, updating terms for costs and maintenance. (Capital Brief)

Capital Markets

• APA's stock price fell due to speculation about a potential acquisition of Zenith Energy and concerns over recent spending. (The Australian)

VC

• Seven startups, tackling varied challenges like Mars settlement and EV battery recycling, completed the ANZ Founder Institute accelerator's intense program. (Startup Daily)

• Nexobot raised $400k to bring affordable robotics to smaller warehouses, helping them compete with giants like Amazon. (Startup Daily)

People moves

• AustralianSuper has dismissed Cameron Evans as CEO of Indara Digital Infrastructure. (AFR)

The watercooler