☕️Tariff compass

Good morning.

Fair Supply saw an opportunity amid Trump’s trade war to deliver a much needed dose of certainty in deeply uncertain times. Expanding beyond its initial focus on ESG and modern slavery supply chain mapping, the firm whipped up its Supply Chain Tariff Calculator in the space of one month, and launched within hours of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

“It’s rare a startup that is perfectly positioned for a global macro shock," Airtree partner Jackie Vullinghs told Capital Brief.

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Market movers

Emerald Resources shares soared over 8% to rank among the ASX 200’s top performers as record-high gold prices drew investors to safety amid deepening US-China tariff tensions.

The quick sync

• Fair Supply’s tariff tool uncovers hidden costs of Trump’s trade war across 60bn supply chains, putting the Aussie startup at the centre of global economic disruption. (Capital Brief)

• EY is betting big on AI to reshape how 140,000 auditors work, starting with smarter search and disclosure tools inside its $1.6b upgrade. (Capital Brief)

• StrongRoom AI gets urgent funding lifeline to pay staff and stay afloat as administrators push ahead with high-stakes sale. (Capital Brief)

• Canva’s new tools ditch the start-up sparkle for enterprise grit, as it eyes an IPO and battles to stay essential in the AI age. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Scape Australia wins exclusivity to acquire $3b Aveo, beating GIC in bidding. (AFR)

• LG Chemical was offered a stake in Wodgina lithium but declined the $2bn price; MinRes now pulls the sale. (The Australian)

• Peabody Energy faces hurdles in breaking its $5.8b deal with Anglo American, with challenges around the material adverse change clause. (The Australian)

• Kegstar has made a non-binding bid for Konvoy Kegs in an effort to increase its market share in Australia. (AFR)

• Speculation about a GPT-Dexus merger surfaces, which could create a $15b real estate giant, though talks have cooled due to market volatility. (The Australian)

• Glencore’s Australian visit fuels merger speculation with Rio Tinto, driven by a shift towards copper assets. (The Australian)

Capital Markets

• Australian Retirement Trust restructures and cuts jobs while acquiring smaller funds. (AFR)

• RBA eyes unpredictable jobs data as Trump tariff risks loom. (Capital Brief)

• Greatland Gold secures brokers for ASX cross-listing, backed by Andrew Forrest. (AFR)

• U.S. grants temporary tariff relief for tech goods; China pushes for full repeal as semiconductor duties approach. (Capital Brief)

• Pilot Energy raises $5m to resume oil and gas exploration and carbon storage efforts. (AFR)

• Billionaire Anthony Hall raises $40b to build seafood empire with Yumbah Aquaculture. (AFR)

• Victoria delays offshore wind terminal plans, drops 2028 target amid project uncertainty. (Capital Brief)

• Five V Capital seeks share registry provider for Automic Group, with top banks bidding. (AFR)

• Former economic official Michael Brennan urges Australia to avoid tariff retaliation, rely on US ties for exemptions. (Capital Brief)

• BlueScope estimates $180m repair bill for Whyalla steelworks, complicating sale plans. (AFR)

• Ramsay Health Care is circling ailing rival Healthscope as lenders seek a buyer, eyeing a rare chance to expand its Australian footprint amid industry upheaval. (AFR)

• Kerry Stokes’ long-game in China is paying off as his family empire doubles down on ties with Beijing, defying trade war headwinds and geopolitical risk. (AFR)

• UTS pushes ahead with $100m cuts and 400 job losses despite booming international student numbers, fuelling backlash over transparency and financial justification. (AFR)

• Investment banks are redrawing their org charts to chase growing private capital opportunities driven by Australia’s $1.7 trillion super funds. (AFR)

• Deloitte partners clash over falling pay units and cost cuts as CEO Joanne Gorton faces pressure to steady the firm’s shaky finances. (AFR)

• Macquarie executive Ben Way’s LinkedIn sermon on ‘humility’ lands awkwardly as his asset division’s profits and fundraising plunge. (AFR)

• Morgan Stanley posts strong Q1 profit beat on record equity trading, with CEO upbeat on deal pipeline despite market uncertainty. (Reuters)(Bloomberg)

• US bank profits surge on trading gains, but executives warn tariff uncertainty could stall growth and trigger a recession. (Reuters)(FT)

• Peter Dutton gambles on negative gearing for first-home buyers and a Western Sydney push to revive his fading election hopes. (Capital Brief)

• Australia urged to hold firm in Trump-era trade negotiations, resisting retaliatory deals and banking on its US alliance to avoid new tariffs. (Capital Brief)

VC

• Australian startup Fair Supply uses supply chain data to help businesses navigate the hidden costs of Trump’s tariffs, turning crisis into opportunity. (Capital Brief)

People moves

• None

The watercooler