☕️ Sure bet?

Good morning.

AMP Super just made bitcoin Australia’s hottest compliance test. As Capital Brief’s Laurel Henning and Jack Derwin write, the fund’s 0.05% punt on bitcoin —blessed by its investment committee, including reformed sceptic Shane Oliver—is skirting regulatory grey zones but could blow open the door for a $4 trillion super industry eyeing digital assets.

“We don’t believe this is a speculative investment, having conducted extensive research to support our inclusion of Bitcoin in our Dynamic Asset Allocation program,” AMP Super chief investment officer Anna Shelly told Capital Brief. Shelly clarified AMP isn’t taking a long-term position, but is trading Bitcoin futures and hedging downside risk for members.

It sure seems like a legal headache waiting for a precedent, with lawyers debating whether crypto exposure can comply with legislative bans on speculative and hazardous investments.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

PEXA shares jumped Tuesday as the market backed Russell Cohen, a Grab exec with platform cred, to take over as CEO in March. The move comes as PEXA builds scale offshore, with its UK expansion and reported interest in Canada’s Dye & Durham.

Glenn King will stick around for a smooth handover, but investors seem keen on fresh leadership for the next phase.

The quick sync

• Employment Hero’s $2b mission to simplify HR is marred by internal chaos, abrupt exits and rising tensions with investors. (Capital Brief)

• ASIC considers enforcement action against ANZ for charging fees to dead customers’ accounts, reigniting scrutiny over the bank’s compliance failures and governance woes. (The Australian)

• ANZ faces protest threats, a bond scandal fallout, and a potential remuneration strike at its AGM, capping a turbulent year for the bank. (Capital Brief)

• Honda and Nissan eye merger talks to tackle Tesla, BYD competition, potentially forming a global auto giant with Mitsubishi. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)(Nikkei)

• Private equity’s buybacks of flopped IPOs are deepening distrust with public investors, as both sides struggle to find a way forward. (AFR)

• KPMG leads Big Four global growth with 5.4% revenue jump, driven by audit and tax gains, narrowing its gap with rivals. (FT)

• US asset managers are dominating Europe, leveraging their scale, diverse products, and rising US growth to squeeze rivals and reshape the market. (FT)

Trading floor

M&A

• Tanarra Capital denies supporting Bain Capital's bid for Insignia Financial, calling reports of its involvement "categorically false." (Capital Brief)

• Lifestyle Communities may be bought out or raise equity, with Ingenia Communities seen as a potential buyer. (The Australian)

• NRL stars could earn more under a new global deal. (AFR)

• Mosaic Brands faces uncertainty with a single bid from chairman Richard Facioni, as store closures mount. (The Australian)

• AER rejects APA’s bid to regulate Basslink; APA will keep operating it in the market. (Capital Brief)

• I-MED’s $3bn sale is delayed, as Macquarie struggles with the price. (The Australian)

• TPG Capital is considering various options for Novotech, including a potential ownership shake-up. (AFR)

• KKR deal for Perpetual's businesses is in jeopardy due to higher tax implications. (Capital Brief)

  • Grant Samuel opposes the sale of Perpetual's wealth management and corporate trust business to KKR. (AFR)

• Crescent Capital offers $13.6m to buy Metro Performance Glass, which is struggling due to weak construction conditions. (The Australian)

• Macquarie Infrastructure is considering buying Linen Services Australia. (AFR)

• Southern Cross Media will sell regional TV licenses to Network 10, with completion expected by February 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Myer's acquisition of Premier Investments' brands is seen as a defensive move against fast fashion competition. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• ASX expected to rise slightly, while Wall Street is mixed as investors anticipate the Fed's interest rate decision. (AFR)

• AMP's Bitcoin investment tests legal limits for super funds, sparking potential crypto interest in the sector. (Capital Brief)

• Bingo Industries' debt is trading at a significant discount, attracting the attention of special situation funds. (AFR)

• Pfizer forecasts 2025 revenue despite challenges and cost-cutting measures. (Capital Brief)

• Whiteoak invests in Avolution, a business architecture modelling tool company. (AFR)

• Meta settles for $50m with Australian Facebook users over privacy breach. (Capital Brief)

• Big miners to invest in low-carbon metal trials in WA. (AFR)

• ARENA commits up to $14.1m to two projects under its sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) initiative. (Capital Brief)

• Vinyl Group is raising $7.5m to fund acquisitions. (AFR)

• Novonix gets $1.2bn US loan commitment for EV battery graphite plant. (Capital Brief)

• Google sued in Australia for ad tech market power misuse, seeking publisher compensation. (Capital Brief)

• Blue Owl co-founder Michael Rees is exploring a multiway merger to form a Blackstone-style alternative investment giant, highlighting the private capital market's rapid consolidation. (FT)

• US Fed's QT risks spark year-end liquidity crunch as investors watch US funding markets for 2019-style strains. (FT)

• Trafigura faces heightened lender scrutiny after scandals, including a US$1.1b Mongolia writedown, hit profits and exposed repeated risk control failures. (FT)

• Capital gains tax discount is estimated to be $22.7bn in 2024-25. (AFR)

VC

• A $42m project to build Australia’s first lunar rover, the "Roo-ver," is launched by a consortium of startups including BHP. (Startup Daily)

• Upflowy is launching a neuroscience-based AI marketing copilot. (Startup Daily)

• Medtech startup Ceretas licenses UQ's ultrasound technology to treat Alzheimer's. (BNA)

People moves

• Orica Chair Malcolm Broomhead to step down in 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Eight-year dispute between Atanaskovic and Kelly ends after appeals court ruling. (AFR)

• Star Entertainment names Frank Krile as CFO during financial and regulatory challenges. (Capital Brief)

• Qantas to pay $120m to illegally sacked workers. (AFR)

• Hugh Marks was appointed as the new ABC Managing Director. (Capital Brief)

• EY Australia sues five former partners and A&M for breach of contract. (AFR)

• Westpac CFO Michael Rowland will retire in 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Argentina exits recession with 3.9% GDP growth, marking a milestone for Javier Milei’s austerity-led economic recovery. (FT)

The watercooler