☕️Super Stress Tests

Good morning.

APRA is putting the finishing touches on a report that will expose vulnerabilities in Australia's $4 trillion superannuation sector, following a year-long stress test into the resilience of the country's big four banks CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ, and the six largest super funds, including AustralianSuper and Australian Retirement Trust.

Two people with direct knowledge of the stress tests told Capital Brief APRA's findings will be released later this week, identifying weaknesses in the system, including liquidity risks.

APRA chair John Lonsdale was tight-lipped on what the results would look like when he addressed the stress test in remarks at the ASIC Forum in Melbourne last week, but hinted that the super funds and banks incorrectly assumed how the other side would act in the same scenario.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in defence tech firm DroneShield jumped Monday, partially rebounding from last week’s plunge after its CEO, chair and a director sold their holdings for nearly $70 million.

The rise yesterday came despite warnings from house broker Bell Potter that institutional investors are now steering clear, calling the stock “dead money” for the rest of 2025.

The quick sync

• Gega Elements is focused on developing a cheaper, cleaner way to refine gallium and germanium from mine waste to reduce China’s control. (Capital Brief)

• Australia’s relentless election cycle is eroding governance, delaying reforms and costing billions. It’s time for fixed four-year terms, writes Marty Gray. (Capital Brief)

• Labor advances news levy and streaming quotas despite US trade warnings and Trump risk. (Capital Brief)

• ANZ restructuring begins as CEO Nuno Matos confronts entrenched cultural and risk failings detailed in internal review. (Capital Brief)

• Major Australian funds exposed to US solar giant Pine Gate collapse. (AFR)

Trading floor

M&A

• HSBC mulls sale of Australian retail business, NAB and Macquarie interested. (AFR)

• Fletcher Building seeks buyers for residential development unit to cut debt after $364m NZ loss. (The Australian)

• SunCable secured a 70-year deal with Traditional Owners to build Australia’s biggest solar farm in the NT. (Capital Brief)

• PE firms make first-round bids for Keypath Education’s APAC unit. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Elders shares jumped after posting a 12% profit rise and giving an optimistic FY26 outlook driven by improving conditions and the Delta acquisition. (Capital Brief)

• IFM Investors raises Atlas Arteria stake to 35% in $153m trade. (AFR)

• Rio Tinto shelved BioIron development to invest $35m in Calix’s ZESTY green-steel plant, while continuing BioIron research in parallel. (Capital Brief)

• ConocoPhillips strikes gas off Victoria in $100m drilling campaign. (AFR)

• Abacus Storage King may split from parent to cut $20M costs after failed $2.3b buyout. (The Australian)

• TPG Telecom is raising $688m through a shareholder reinvestment plan and reaffirming its FY25 guidance. (Capital Brief)

• MA Financial launches $300m private credit note on ASX. (AFR)

• Pro Medicus shares climbed after winning a five-year, $44m US imaging contract. (Capital Brief)

• DroneShield drops 40% after insider $70m share sale; Charles Goode still top shareholder. (AFR)

• Transgrid raises $800m in bonds to fund renewable energy projects. (The Australian)

• Amazon, Temu, Shein to take 36% of Australia’s online retail by 2026. (AFR)

• IperionX shares dropped after the company rejected a Spruce Point short seller report that alleged major risks and overvaluation. (Capital Brief)

• Fortitude writes down Aura Medical investment to $0.01, seeks turnaround. (AFR)

• Justin Sun-linked firm freezes $700m in global assets, including Australian projects. (AFR)

• SQM Research will defend ASIC’s lawsuit, insisting it maintains high integrity and strong research standards. (Capital Brief)

• Brooki Bakehouse secures $25m to expand globally, opening Sydney and UAE stores. (Smart Company)

• Nash Capital backs Blue Hippo Laundry with $20m for national expansion. (AFR)

• Groq is investing USD300m in Australia and has launched its first APAC AI inference cluster in Sydney to meet fast-growing regional demand. (Capital Brief)

• Amazon aims to raise $18b in first US bond sale in three years. (Bloomberg)

• GMI Cloud to build USD500m Nvidia-powered AI data centre in Taiwan. (Capital Brief)

• Atlassian travel emissions up 135%, misses reduction target; CEO jets not blamed. (AFR)

• Future Fund shifts to resilient investments amid global “permacrisis.” (Capital Brief)(AFR)

VC 

• Bezos launches $6.2b AI startup Project Prometheus for engineering and manufacturing. (Capital Brief) (NYT)

• Gega Elements seeks to challenge China in critical minerals with early Australian backing. (Capital Brief)

People moves

• Ramsay Health Care named ex-Santos executive Anthony Neilson as its new CFO. (Capital Brief)

• Unified Capital hires Mark Carew to boost institutional sales. (AFR)

• Steadfast CEO Robert Kelly returns after investigation clears LinkedIn joke complaint. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler