☕️ Subtropic Anthropic

Good morning.

AI lab Anthropic has been quietly laying the foundations for an Australian expansion, but unlike its chief rival OpenAI, which arrived in December with a splashy launch party, it's taking a slower, low-key approach by infiltrating CBA’s earnings with 65 mentions of artificial intelligence.

Working behind the scenes to establish ties in the local market, Anthropic will this week be confirmed as a major sponsor of Blackbird's annual Sunrise conference and Capital Brief has learned the company will send three senior leaders to speak at the event.

Sources also told Capital Brief that Anthropic has held exploratory conversations with all three of Australia's major venture firms — Blackbird, Square Peg and Airtree — as it begins to map out the market.

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Market movers

AGL Energy shares jumped Wednesday after the company posted a half-year profit 21% above expectations and agreed to sell its telecommunications business to Aussie Broadband in an all-scrip deal worth up to $125 million.

The quick sync

• Anthropic has begun early outreach in Australia, quietly engaging with venture firms, founders and developers while delaying formal market entry. (Capital Brief)

• Who are the Liberals backing Angus Taylor to oust Sussan Ley? (Capital Brief)

• CBA boss Matt Comyn says fears AI will slash white-collar jobs are overblown and insists the technology will drive hiring and productivity instead. (Capital Brief)

• CBA’s share price soared after a strong half-year result beat expectations, adding $20 billion to its market cap. (Capital Brief)

• AI coding tools are enabling more women to launch startups as solo founders, but systemic funding gaps remain a hurdle. (Capital Brief)

• Farrell is in Brussels for revived EU trade talks, but unresolved disputes over agriculture and critical minerals could still derail a deal. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• SGH drops BlueScope bid, unwilling to raise leverage despite profit rise. (Capital Brief)

• Tabcorp explores informal takeover talks with BetMakers to boost its wagering tech. (AFR)

• Barrenjoey sells $49m (6.3%) of Nufarm following 45% share drop. (AFR)

• Pacific National’s $6b business is up for sale, with JPMorgan and Barrenjoey marketing all shareholder stakes, including GIP and CPP. (The Australian)

• Infinity Pharmacy, owner of 91 Priceline stores, valued at $500m+ as sale begins; Chemist Warehouse faces a tough acquisition. (AFR)

• Nuveen, PSP, and OMERS vie for $3b Paraway Pastoral, a global agricultural asset. (The Australian)

• Macquarie taps Zara founder Amancio Ortega’s logistics know-how in push to acquire Qube. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• James Hardie jumps on revenue growth and guidance upgrade despite profit slump. (Capital Brief)

• Aussie Broadband surges on $125m AGL telco deal; AGL profit falls but outlook steady. (Capital Brief)

• National Storage lifts underlying earnings 8%, net profit falls. (Capital Brief)

• Firmus targets $420m in private round ahead of IPO after $10b Blackstone-Coatue backing. (AFR)

• HomeCo reaffirms FY26 guidance as first-half FFO edges higher. (Capital Brief)

• Evolution Mining profit doubles; shares rise on strong dividend and outlook. (Capital Brief)

• CBA jumps 6% on $5.44b profit beat and stronger dividend. (Capital Brief)

• CBA surges $20b after half-year beat, marking its best day in six years. (Capital Brief)

• AustralianSuper’s Don Russell calls on super funds to better support retirees managing withdrawals from traditional investments. (AFR)

• GQG FUM up $2.5b as performance offsets heavy outflows. (Capital Brief)

• Centuria Industrial lifts profit, reaffirms FY26 guidance. (Capital Brief)

• Dexus Industria profit drops $10.3m; FFO steady, FY26 guidance maintained. (Capital Brief)

• Bravura’s H1 net profit rises to $25.9m; dividends lifted, UK expansion underway. (Capital Brief)

• S&P admits a $1b SGH short-trade glitch after 22m shares were incorrectly reported as loaned. (AFR)

• CSL H1 profit plunges 81% to $567m; CEO exits, interim CEO named, shares tumble 11.5%. (Capital Brief)

• Adora secures $7m to launch AI journey mapping, serving clients like Canva and Notion. (Capital Brief)

• RBA’s Hauser defends staying silent on government spending, citing neutrality and only acting in extreme monetary threats. (Capital Brief)

• China’s CPI rises 0.2% in January as factory deflation continues; PPI falls 1.4%. (Capital Brief)

• CBA’s Matt Comyn says AI will lift jobs, highlighting bank’s stake in AI lab Anthropic. (Capital Brief)

• Maas Group pivots from construction materials to electrical contracting, eyeing acquisitions to scale and target energy and AI projects. (The Australian)

• Neuren announces a 12-month, up-to-5% on-market share buyback, citing undervalued assets. (Capital Brief)

• NATO launches “Arctic Sentry” to strengthen Arctic presence after Trump’s Greenland threats. (Capital Brief)

• US jobs jump 130,000 in January; unemployment falls to 4.3%, beating forecasts and signaling a steadier labor market. (Capital Brief)

• Anthropic quietly eyes Australia, building local ties and sponsoring Blackbird’s Sunrise conference, without launching offices or hiring yet. (Capital Brief)

• Susquehanna-backed crypto lender BlockFills halts client withdrawals. (FT)

• Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square discloses new stake in Meta. (Bloomberg)

• Second firm suspends deals with DP World over Epstein files. (Bloomberg)

• Trump privately weighs quitting USMCA trade pact he signed. (Bloomberg)

• Trump’s tariffs face rebuke as Johnson fails to block votes. (Bloomberg)

• Word’s biggest nickel mine in Indonesia told to cut output. (Bloomberg)

VC 

• AI tools help women founders go solo: Alisa Rae raised $2m and joined Y Combinator with Lucent, her AI bug-detection startup. (Capital Brief)

• Adora, founded by ex-Canva and Amazon staff, raises funds from Blackbird and Skip Capital, valued near $50M. (AFR)

People moves

• PsiQuantum CEO Jeremy O’Brien becomes executive chair; Victor Peng steps in as interim CEO. (Capital Brief)

• Domino’s names McDonald’s’ Andrew Gregory as new global CEO, starting August. (Capital Brief)

• Ausbil’s Tom Cutler departs for rival Ophir amid fund management exits. (AFR)

• Don Farrell heads to Brussels for EU free trade talks; agriculture disputes put deal at risk. (Capital Brief)

• E&P Financial hires Abraham Akra from Shaw and Partners to boost small-cap research coverage. (AFR)

• Telstra may axe 650 jobs via India outsourcing and AI JV cuts to streamline operations. (Capital Brief)

• JBWere’s Andrew Bird departs after a decade, joins UBS. (AFR)

• Angus Taylor quits the frontbench to challenge Sussan Ley for Liberal leadership. (Capital Brief)

• Co-founders of Musk’s xAI join exodus from start-up’s tech team. (FT)

The watercooler