☕️Spooky Szn

Good morning.

Double, double, toil and bubble.

Halloween might be around the corner but spooky szn has already arrived for AI bears cynical on soaring valuations and circular never-ending flow of funding.

Should concerns about an AI-driven bubble trigger a flood away from Big Tech, at least one USD35 billion ($53.4 billion) money manager will be sitting pretty.

Impax Asset Management Group, Bloombergv reports, targets low-carbon, sustainable investment strategies and is already “seeing signs that those benefits are coming through,” CEO Ian Simm said.

FOMO, the outlet writes, has been a key force fanning jaw-dropping valuation gains for tech firms whose ability to generate actual sustained profits remains (largely) untested. As fear about a looming AI bubble grows, Simm says asset owners are seeking to diversify their exposure to equities through non-Mag 7 type portfolios.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in newly merged fund manager L1 Group rose over 16% on Friday after Bell Potter raised its price target, bringing its weekly gain to more than 55%.

The quick sync

• Ripple says Treasury’s proposed crypto laws risk forcing startups to close by giving them too little time to meet new rules. (Capital Brief)

• ABC’s Hugh Marks criticised over partner’s appointment to Betr board. (Capital Brief)

• No RBA cut expected as unemployment edges up and key data drops. (Capital Brief)

• Cosette’s $672m Mayne Pharma deal hangs on this week’s court ruling and unresolved FIRB approval. (Capital Brief)

• Alisa Wu raised $2m for her AI startup without a team, but her immediate push to hire shows solo success may still depend on people. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Court to decide if Cosette can exit $672 m Mayne Pharma takeover amid disputed claims. (Capital Brief)

• Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners nears $1b+ deal for Queensland waste firm BMI. (AFR)

• Nine may buy Quadrant’s QMS despite investor surprise and focus on digital deals. (The Australian)

• Advent Partners to buy majority stake in Efex from Alceon, valuing it up to $200m. (AFR)

• Blackstone–Iress takeover talks hit a stalemate over price and due diligence access, with no rival bidders in sight. (The Australian)

• Affinity’s $1b-plus SME lender ScotPac hits the market under UBS-led sale. (AFR)

• PEP is leading a private equity push to buy $621m FleetPartners, with rival bidders including Bain and strategic partners like Mitsubishi Motors. (The Australian)

• France’s Sidetrade bids for Bombora-backed ezyCollect. (AFR)

• Macquarie to break up and sell $2.5b Paraway Pastoral in parts amid investor pressure. (The Australian)

• Foresight hires JPMorgan to sell 29% stake in $3b Flinders Port Holdings. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Precinct Properties plans NZD300m raise, hires Forsyth Barr, Jarden, and UBS. (AFR)

• xAI hires Nvidia experts to build next-gen “world model” AI systems. (FT)

• Boab Metals launches $50m raise at 40¢ after 200% share surge. (AFR)

• The Trump administration pressures Beijing to reverse new trade measures while signalling talks remain possible ahead of 1 November tariffs. (Bloomberg)

• Options pricing points to sharp earnings-day swings in major US stocks, with volatility near 2022 highs as investors question the outlook for AI and tech. (Bloomberg)

• Crypto bounces back after Trump tells investors not to worry about China, reversing panic from one of the largest liquidation events in history. (TheStreet)

VC 

• None

People moves

• RBC hires E&P’s Steven Marchio as Melbourne sales head. (AFR)

The watercooler