☕️ Short windfall

Good morning.

Just as the long world of equities shed over US$1 trillion in value yesterday, AI contrarians were cashing in. Short sellers pocketed a cool US$9 billion during the DeepSeek-inspired rout, according to Reuters. The “Sputnik moment” from the low-cost AI disruptor stoked fears of US erosion in the tech race, with Nvidia and massive asset managers alike caught in the downdraft.

The usually contrarian Howard Marks called the selloff “irrational”, The Black Swan author Nassim Taleb framed it as the start of a “reality adjustment,” while Goldman Sachs’s Peter Oppenheimer kept his faith in the American AI growth story.

Who’s got the better read?

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Market movers

Sigma shares soared Tuesday as Chemist Warehouse sales grew 13%, EBIT surged 35%, amid a bold step into Dubai.

At the other end of the spectrum, uranium stocks, Deep Yellow, Boss Energy and Paladin sank as DeepSeek’s emergence slashed data centre energy demand hype.

The quick sync

• DeepSeek’s game-changing AI shows Australia can punch above its weight in the global tech race, even without Silicon Valley’s deep pockets, says Leonardo.Ai founder. (Capital Brief)

• Labor stakes $32m in Harrison.ai to anchor the Young Rich List start-up in Australia as global AI rivals threaten to outpace local innovation. (AFR)

• Hicksons Lawyers bets on bespoke AI and a diverse team to stay ahead in a rapidly changing legal landscape, says new managing partner Cameron Leaver. (Capital Brief)

• Wesfarmers’ heavy-handed management and poor strategy turned Catch.com.au from a thriving startup into a cautionary tale of corporate overreach. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Fortescue to acquire Red Hawk Mining for $254M, adding the Blacksmith iron ore project in WA. (Capital Brief)

• Trump confirms Microsoft in talks to buy TikTok's US arm, with strong interest from US tech firms. (Bloomberg)

• Glow Capital Partners acquires majority stake in Delta Laboratories, with founder Gary Leach keeping a small stake. (AFR)

• NinjaOne to acquire Dropsuite for $402M, boosting its IT platform with data protection tools. (Capital Brief)

• Cerberus targets the purchase of a portion of Star Entertainment’s $400M debt, as the company faces insolvency. (AFR)

• Amber acquires Charge HQ to boost EV charging tech and renewable energy offerings. (Capital Brief)

• ICG, alongside industry experts, acquires SuperChoice from Potentia Capital. (AFR)

• X partners with Visa for X Money, enabling real-time payments and digital wallet features in 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Elmo Software’s sale is halted as Bain Capital walks away due to high price expectations from its PE owners, K1. (AFR)

• HSBC retrenches from investment banking in Europe and the Americas, shifting focus to Asia and the Middle East. (Capital Brief)

• Chemist Warehouse reports $5B in sales and is set to merge with Sigma Healthcare, forming a $29B company ahead of its ASX listing. (AFR)

• Device Technologies has acquired DTect Innovation, its sixth acquisition in a year. (BNA)

• The Ravenswood gold mine, up for sale at $2B, has attracted bids from firms in Indonesia, Australia, China, and Canada, with first-round bids due soon. (The Australian)

• 5G Networks raised its bid for AUCyber by $3M, still below Brennan's competing offer. (BNA)

• Alinta Energy’s sale, linked to Chow Tai Fook, impacts The Star Entertainment Group’s Queen’s Wharf project, amid financial struggles at Chow Tai Fook's sister company. (The Australian)

• Brookfield moves to fully acquire Neoen in planned €6.1b takeover to take the renewable energy giant private. (Bloomberg)

• Struggling Brighthouse Financial seeks buyer, drawing private equity interest with its US$120b portfolio.(FT)

Capital Markets

• Gold Road sees a production boost at Gruyere mine from ore access and plant upgrades. (Capital Brief)

• Viva Energy forecasts higher earnings, driven by record fuel sales, despite refinery and retail challenges. (Capital Brief)

• Nuix forecasts higher H1 revenue and ACV, with growth delayed to H2 due to longer client procurement cycles. (Capital Brief)

• Morgan Stanley downgrades ASX shares over high valuation and slowing revenue growth. (Capital Brief)

• Realm’s Dominion Income Trust secures ASX listing after meeting $300M bookbuild minimum. (AFR)

• ASX data centre stocks fall amid global tech selloffs and DeepSeek AI competition fears. (Capital Brief)

• Uranium miners fall as Inkai production resumes and data center electricity demand forecasts waver. (Capital Brief)

• UBS gives HMC Capital’s DigiCo REIT a 'buy' rating, driven by data centre growth and AI trends. (Capital Brief)

• DP World is investing $400M to expand Port Botany's rail terminal, boosting capacity and productivity with five new rail sidings. (The Australian)

• Woolworths names Amazon, Aldi, Costco, and others as key retail competitors in ACCC inquiry, citing their impact on product range, prices, and consumer experience. (Capital Brief)

• Atlassian trims stock cash-out wait to three months, fuelling war for elite tech talent amid rising market pressure. (AFR)

VC

• Seer Medical, in voluntary administration, is looking for a buyer while planning to launch its next-gen epilepsy device in the US. (Startup Daily)

• Heaps Normal expands slowly in the US, now available in 140 Whole Foods stores and gaining traction in bars and venues. (Smart Company)

• Spoony raised $1M in pre-Seed funding to support its app for neurodivergent, ill, and disabled people. (Startup Daily)

People moves

• Mohit Wadan named Bain’s ANZ managing partner, succeeding Peter Stumbles in April 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Chris Gawler, small caps analyst at Goldman Sachs, departs, with his coverage reassigned to the team. (AFR)

• Angelo Pandeli seeks aggravated damages in defamation case against News Corp, accusing them of false criminal claims. (Capital Brief)

• Hells Angels figure Angelo Pandeli takes on News Corp in explosive defamation case over 'cocaine kingpin' allegations.(Capital Brief)

• Jefferies technology banker Carter McIntosh, 28, dies suddenly, sparking an investigation into the unexplained death. (Bloomberg)

The watercooler