☕️ RIP SaaS, Viva AI!

Good morning.

VC firm King River Capital is turning away from Australia’s SaaS legacy, arguing the nation’s disciplined valuations and deep AI talent are forging the next investment frontier.

Partner Zeb Rice told Capital Brief that “SaaS is dead” and that AI-driven “vibe coding” is beginning to displace entire categories of software products and the specialist teams that built them.

Despite the death of SaaS, Rice says Australia remains competitive in the AI cycle due to its engineering talent, more grounded pricing, and the faster-than-expected spillover of AI activity from the United States.

King River assumed that a USD100 million ($150 million) fund it closed in March “would lean heavily toward US investments.” Instead, Rice said the past quarter has delivered what he calls “an extremely rapid emergence of a bevy of companies” in Australia — AI startups growing at speeds that rival their US counterparts.

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Market movers

Shares in logistics software company WiseTech rose Thursday after it appointed Raelene Murphy to its board as an independent non-executive director, effective January 2026. The move is part of an ongoing board overhaul that has added four new directors since March and follows the resignation of four board members in February.

The quick sync

• Turnbull says standing firm on streaming quotas will blunt Trump-era US backlash. (Capital Brief)

• EY says companies risk falling behind on AI as leaders fail to support eager junior staff. (Capital Brief)

• APRA caps risky loans as major banks pull back from highly leveraged investors. (Capital Brief)

• Chief Justice Gageler says the judiciary must speak up on systemic issues as the legal convention hears confronting calls for reform. (Capital Brief)

• Labor and the Greens agree to pass streaming quotas and deliver $50m to the ABC as US pressure escalates. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Seven–Southern Cross merger clears regulator, awaits shareholder vote. (Capital Brief)

• ACCC concerns may block NAB from buying HSBC Australia as the bank exits non-core markets. (The Australian)

• Mathieson family and Bally’s take majority control of Star Entertainment; Bruce Mathieson Jr. to become executive chairman. (AFR)

• Lincoln Place owners may recapitalise after buyers decline interest in $1b sale. (The Australian)

• Betashares plans to buy a minority stake in ASIC-approved stablecoin issuer Macropod. (AFR)

• Healthscope receivers may relaunch hospital sale as buyers and landlords negotiate bids and rents. (The Australian)

• Ampyr inks $300m, 15-year deal with InCommodities to support its Bulabul battery project. (Capital Brief)

• Scape targets 25% stake in Keyton as Lendlease exits and synergies with Aveo emerge. (The Australian)

• Snowy Hydro deals set stage for wind farm and battery projects to boost Australia’s clean energy push. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• QBE confirmed its guidance and a $450m buyback, yet its shares dropped. (Capital Brief)

• UBS will join TPG’s advisory team as Greencross readies a major IPO next year. (AFR)

• APRA sets a 20% cap on high-DTI loans to curb rising risk in mortgage lending. (Capital Brief)

• JPMorgan and advisers back DroneShield’s Oleg Vornik amid share sell-off saga. (AFR)

• APRA orders Australian Ethical Super to fix spending and governance issues after concerns over payments to its parent company. (Capital Brief)

• Mineral explorers raise $3.49b in September quarter amid strong government support. (AFR)

• Suncorp faces $350m in storm-related costs after 10,000+ claims. (Capital Brief)

• Fair Go Finance boosts capacity with $125m warehouse to expand near-prime lending. (AFR)

• Tabcorp to spend $130m boosting gambling in pubs and upgrading terminals. (AFR)

• NRW Holdings raises guidance as mining and Fredon units outperform. (Capital Brief)

• Pepper Money urges regulator action to protect non-bank lenders from private credit misdeeds. (AFR)

• Latrobe Magnesium turns coal ash into magnesium, gaining from US-Australia critical minerals deal. (AFR)

• Capex rises 6.4% as data-centre and tech investment surge. (Capital Brief)

• Tech firms push for regulatory reforms to support booming AI investment in Australia. (AFR)

• Reece lifts on $35m share buyback announcement. (Capital Brief)

• AtSpace completes successful high-altitude test of its A01 rocket. (Capital Brief)

• ABC gains $50m funding after Greens back new streaming content quotas. (AFR)

• China cautions that its humanoid robot boom risks a bubble from too many similar products. (Capital Brief)

• EY says hesitant CEOs—not staff—are blocking faster AI adoption. (Capital Brief)

• Crypto laws land with powers industry fears could stifle innovation. (Capital Brief)

• SEC probes Jefferies over First Brands transparency. (FT)

• The US is deregulating banks. Will the rest of the world follow? (FT)

• Global stocks hold steady after four-day rally. (Bloomberg)

VC 

• Australia’s climate tech sector booms with 730+ startups, 7,000+ jobs, and $680m funding. (Smart Company)

People moves

• WiseTech rallies after adding Raelene Murphy amid broader board refresh. (Capital Brief)

• JPMorgan adds mining analyst Jonathan Sharp to boost sector coverage. (AFR)

• Barnaby Joyce leaves Nationals amid One Nation defection talk. (Capital Brief)

• BWP Trust chair Howarth to retire; Fiona Harris named successor. (Capital Brief)

• Macquarie Capital ends troubled chapter as Georgina Johnson exits unusually. (AFR)

• Taiwan raids ex-TSMC exec accused of leaking chip secrets to Intel. (Capital Brief)

• Cartherics names Dr Ian Nisbet CEO ahead of upcoming cancer therapy trials. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler