☕️ Relief rally?

Good morning.

Aussie investors might be feeling upbeat this morning with ASX futures pointing to a 1.2% pop at the open after Friday’s big bounce on Wall Street. But before we all get carried away with the Dow hitting 50,000, Goldman’s trading desk is out with a reality check.

They say trend following algo funds could offload up to USD33 billion in equities this week if the market starts to roll over again, and if the S&P drops below 6,707, that could unlock as much as USD80 billion more.

With liquidity thin, dealers set to chase price rather than absorb it, and retail stepping back, Goldman’s warning the setup could make any downside move sharper than it looks. Just be careful out there!

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in hotel booking platform Web Travel Group plunged almost 30% Friday after it told the market its Spanish subsidiary is under audit by local tax authorities, triggering the stock’s steepest one-day fall since listing. The announcement deepened pressure on a market already rattled by AI-driven volatility, leaving Web Travel as the ASX’s worst performer for the session.

The quick sync

• Sydney-based technologist Manik Surtani unites OpenAI and Anthropic in 130-company Agentic AI Foundation. (Capital Brief)

• Block joins CBA in calling for stronger regulation of Apple Pay and card schemes amid the federal inquiry into digital wallets. (Capital Brief)

• Australia has the talent to lead in global tech, but without better incentives to scale, success will happen elsewhere, writes Thomas Kelly.(Capital Brief)

• After lifting the cash rate, the RBA faces scrutiny this week as senior officials speak publicly and new economic data is released. (Capital Brief)

• Labor is considering CGT changes in May, testing if Albanese will trade caution for reform. (Capital Brief)

• Higher capital gains tax could stall construction, tighten supply and worsen the housing crisis, Mark Humphery-Jenner writes. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Crescent Capital moves to sell Hall Contracting with Greenhill’s help. (AFR)

• Shell may sell $2b stake in Woodside’s North West Shelf LNG project. (The Australian)

• GIP relaunches $565m/year Pacific National sale with JPMorgan. (AFR)

• Scape abandons Keyton deal, hitting Lendlease’s asset-sale plans. (The Australian)

Capital Markets

• Amazon stock fell after unveiling an unexpectedly massive USD200b AI-driven spending plan. (Capital Brief)(Capital Brief)

• Atlassian’s revenue surged on cloud and AI growth, but losses deepened. (Capital Brief)

• REA shares slid after profits fell 24% on the loss of a one-off PropertyGuru gain. (Capital Brief)

• Pepper Money nears privatization in KKR fund-to-fund deal. (AFR)

• News Corp expects a big payout from Anthropic’s copyright settlement as it pushes AI firms to pay for its content. (Capital Brief)

• Web Travel Group’s Spanish unit is under tax audit in Spain. (Capital Brief)

• KKR backs HMC’s energy platform with up to $603m to expand renewables. (Capital Brief)

• Cobre raises $50m to acquire Chile’s Sierra Atacama copper mine. (AFR)

• Charter Hall Retail REIT lifted earnings and distributions and reaffirmed FY26 guidance. (Capital Brief)

• IREN stock slid after revenue plunged and losses widened during its shift to AI. (Capital Brief)

• Neuren launched its first Phase 3 trial for Phelan-McDermid Syndrome. (Capital Brief)

• BlueScope to gain $2b cash boost, raising stakes in takeover tussle. (AFR)

• McGrathNicol unveiled a plan to save Healthscope hospitals via a new not-for-profit model. (Capital Brief)

• EOS halts trading amid skepticism over its $80m South Korea contract. (Capital Brief)

• Higher CGT could worsen housing by deterring construction and limiting supply. (Capital Brief)

• Abacus eyes internalisation, potentially boosting share value and cutting costs. (The Australian)

• AI worries hit ASX earnings season, dragging tech stocks and the ASX 200 lower. (Capital Brief)

• Tech firms’ huge AI spending is shaking global markets. (Capital Brief)

• Goldman Sachs builds AI agents with Anthropic to automate back-office tasks. (Capital Brief)

• Revolut tops 1m Australian users, plans $400m local investment. (Capital Brief)

• RZ Resources eyes $1b ASX listing as US critical minerals demand surges. (AFR)

• Australia’s talent is strong, but incentives to build global-scale companies are lacking. (Capital Brief)

• Fintech giant Block backs CBA to boost competition against Apple Pay in digital wallets. (Capital Brief)

• ASX tech stocks plunged amid AI disruption fears last week, but CEOs and analysts argued the selloff ignores business fundamentals. (Capital Brief)

• Anthropic’s more than USD20b funding to close as soon as next week. (Bloomberg)

• Tech’s AI push risks a bond market blowback. (Bloomberg)

• Goldman Sachs teams up with Anthropic to automate banking tasks with AI agents. (CNBC)

• Gambling stocks sag as prediction markets steal Super Bowl bets. (Bloomberg)

VC 

• Adelaide-based health startup Splose raises $46m to expand health software into the UK. (AFR)

People moves

• ANZ board member Graham Hodges retires after three years in role. (Capital Brief)

• Luke Sayers taps Melbourne elite, including Andrews and Joyce, for thank-you lunch. (AFR)

• SkinKandy names Trent Peterson chairman as $400m listing looms. (AFR)

The watercooler