☕ Recession risk

Good morning. The Bank of England followed the rest of the world and increased their rates by 25bps to 4.5% — and no longer expects the UK to fall into a recession this year. A bit of a different read to us locally, where an RBA research paper put Australia at an 80% chance of entering a recession this year or next. More below.

Good morning. The Bank of England followed the rest of the world and increased their rates by 25bps to 4.5% — and no longer expects the UK to fall into a recession this year.

A bit of a different read to us locally, where an RBA research paper put Australia at an 80% chance of entering a recession this year or next. More below.

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MARKET MOVERS

*Stock data as of the market close. Commodities and crypto data in USD.

Market news: Graincorp upped its EBITDA guidance from $470-530m to $500-560m, in what's been a record-breaking couple of years for the grain industry. This will be the second best result in the company's history — last year the company reported EBITDA of $703m.

THE QUICK SYNC

  • Treasury weighs criminal case against former PwC partner. (SMH)

  • Why Bubs’ directors, backed by Alibaba, dumped its founder. (SMH)

  • RBA research finds Australia has up to an 80% recession risk. (ABC)

  • In UBS’ new $11.5b-a-day Aussie trading room, the carpet is important. (AFR)

  • SoftBank posts record $32 billion loss at its Vision Fund tech investment arm. (CNBC)

  • Google shows the AI evolution of its search engine: What to know. (ALJ)

TRADING FLOOR

M&A:

  • Silver Lake has tweaked the structure of its $707m bid to acquire St Barbara’s flagship Gwalia mine. (AFR)

  • Anchorage Capital has entered the bidding for Hoyts. (AFR)

  • Stockland is held talks with Lendlease about an acquisition of at least part of its $1.7bn-plus Australian Communities business. (The Australian)

  • BWX’s 50.1% stake in Go-to Skincare to be sold by Grant Samuel. (AFR | BNA)

    • BWX's Sukin brand to go up for sale with advisors to be appointed this month. (SMH)

  • First-round bids for the Alinta assets are due this week, and APA is facing some strong competition. (The Australian)

  • Allkem and US-based Livent announced a US$10.6bn ‘merger of equals’. (BNA | SMH)

    • Market experts believe the $US10.6bn merger between Allkem and Livent Group is part of a wider industry trend. (The Australian)

Capital Markets:

  • Blackstone Credit and GSAM are expected to help TPG’s mooted $700m odd bolt-on acquisition for iNova. (AFR)

  • NextDC taps MacCap, UBS, and Cadence for a $618m entitlement offer. (The Australian)

  • Chalice Mining is quietly putting together a $60m private placement. (AFR)

  • Lab3 is seeking as much as $70m from external investors. (AFR)

VC:

  • None

Others:

  • Former Mirvac CIO Brett Draffen and Dexus executive Kevin George are the top contenders for the top job at GPT Group. (The Australian)

  • Key proxy advisers ISS, Glass Lewis and Ownership Matters back InvoCare. (AFR)

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THE WATERCOOLER

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