☕️ Rates pressure

Good morning.

As private credit grows ever more powerful, Nick Moakes of the £37.6 billion ($74.12 billion) Wellcome Trust sees “accidents waiting to happen,” with looser lending standards and a flood of capital setting the stage for trouble. He tells the FT of “very substantial” losses for major investors if the US economy falters.

Adding fuel to the fire, rating agency KBRA forecasts default rates climbing from 1.9% in 2023 to 3% in 2025. Of course, higher-than-expected interest rates as we enter Trump’s second administration are expected to hit the weakest borrowers the hardest.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Ingenia shares soared on Tuesday after the company bumped FY25 EBIT guidance to $162m and raised EPS to 30 cents, crediting cost cuts and a sharper focus on returns.

Streamlining operations and trimming debt seem to be paying off, with holiday parks and retirement communities delivering steady cash flow.

The quick sync

• Tanarra targets Nine Entertainment, slamming underperformance and tipping a wave of ASX activism. (Capital Brief)

• NRL, AFL met Albanese, Rowland just before Labor froze gambling ad crackdown. (Capital Brief)

• Oracle appeals $250m tax dispute with the ATO, impacting cross-border royalty issues for multinationals. (Capital Brief)

• Telstra bets $700m on AI overhaul with Accenture, risking job cuts to reshape its future. (AFR)

• KKR faces a US$650m DOJ lawsuit over alleged antitrust violations in 16 deals, sparking a countersuit claiming political targeting. (Bloomberg)

Trading floor

M&A

• NRL and AFL met with key ministers before Labor shelved gambling ad restrictions. (Capital Brief)

• Macquarie invests up to $8.09bn in Applied Digital’s AI data centres, becoming largest shareholder. (Capital Brief)

• AustralianSuper buys 50% of $1.4bn European logistics portfolio, aiming for major growth. (AFR)

• NZAM suspends activities after BlackRock exit, citing changing regulatory and client expectations. (Capital Brief)

• Armitage Associates acquires majority stake in hospitality ERP firm Redcat. (AFR)

• China considers Elon Musk acquiring TikTok US if a ban proceeds, with preliminary talks ongoing. (Capital Brief)

• Car Group exits Australian tyre businesses, selling assets and closing tyresales.com.au. (Capital Brief)

• Pfizer sells 7.7% stake in Haleon for $3bn, with strong investor demand. (Bloomberg)

• PWR Holdings' C&R Racing lands $8.9M US government order for cooling solutions. (Capital Brief)

• New Hope ends decade-long legal fight over mine expansion but warns of economic impact from approval delays. (The Australian)

• Vaxxas receives $3.2m from BARDA to advance needle-free COVID-19 vaccine patch. (BNA)

Capital Markets

• Energy sector rises as oil prices hit five-month high, boosted by US sanctions on Russia and weather conditions. (Capital Brief)

• Arafura Rare Earths secures $200m from Australia to develop a mine and processing facility for critical minerals. (Bloomberg)

• Morgan Stanley favors fund managers over REITs for office real estate exposure in 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Realm Investment House set to launch a $300m debt-focused LIT. (AFR)

• Mesoblast raises $260m to launch Ryoncil in the US and support manufacturing and development. (Capital Brief)

• Alpha HPA shares rise 3.3% on semiconductor demand boost and new LOI. (Capital Brief)

VC

• Arbor Capital raises $20m for new tech-focused VC fund. (AFR)

People moves

• Jennifer Piepszak becomes COO at JPMorgan, shifting CEO focus to other contenders and new leadership roles. (Capital Brief)

• Vow cuts 25 jobs, focusing more on manufacturing and market expansion. (Capital Brief)

• Meta to reduce 5% of staff, focusing on low performers, and plans to hire. (Reuters)

• Magellan appoints Michelle Mutchnik as interim CFO, replacing Kirsten Morton. (Capital Brief)

• Goldman Sachs' equity capital markets head Aaron Lamshed resigns after 10 years. (Bloomberg)

• Nine Entertainment appoints ex-Foxtel and News Corp CEO Peter Tonagh to its board. (Capital Brief)

• OpenAI appoints BlackRock executive Adebayo Ogunlesi to its board of directors. (Bloomberg) 

• BlackRock's Mark Wiedman, a potential Larry Fink successor, quits after 20 years, shaking up leadership as the firm bets big on alternatives. (Bloomberg)

• Fake job postings are surging, with nearly 1 in 5 ads luring workers for roles that don’t exist. (WSJ)

The watercooler