☕️ Rates expectations

And some media merger news

Good morning.

It’s RBA rates week again, which means its also time for the LOI Interest Rate Prediction Poll™️. You can cast your votes now, and we will discuss the results this time tomorrow. Last month was a rare miss for the Poll, which predicted a rise when the RBA decided to stand pat.

Consensus expectations in the markets are for a 25bp hike this week, but two of the major banks, ANZ and NAB, are predicting another pause.

Adding a little bit of spice to this week’s decision is the fact it’s the first since Michele Bullock was confirmed as the next RBA governor, although Philip Lowe will still be in the chair for this and next month’s calls.

And in other news. We’re delighted to announce that Letter of Intent has been acquired by Capital Brief, a business publication for new economy professionals that is launching later this year.

We may have a new owner, but rest assured Letter of Intent won’t be changing. It will remain a newsletter focused on M&A, capital markets, VC (and fintwit memes) and it will also always be free. And yes, everyone will retain their subscriber numbers.

If you have any feedback, special requests, demands or observations, you can still get in touch at [email protected].

ps. if this was forwarded to you, you can sign up for LOI at letterofintent.com.au

LOI Subscriber #TBD

MARKET MOVERS

*Stock data as of the market close. Commodities and crypto data in USD.

Market News: Siteminder has been one of the quiet achievers of the Australian tech industry (and a hugely important investment for former All Blacks captain David Kirk’s venture fund Bailadoor). But the hotel booking platform has seriously underwhelmed on the ASX since listing in early 2021.

That changed on Friday, when the stock soared after Siteminder put out some fresh numbers in an unscheduled trading update. TL;DR the company will hit its FY23 guidance (including for 30% revenue growth) when it reports its official results next month. Perhaps more importantly it expects to be EBITDA profitable and free cash flow positive in the first half of the current financial (both on an underlying basis, so caveats galore there). Which suggests it won’t have to dip too heavily into its cash reserves any time soon.

THE QUICK SYNC

  • Apple, Amazon highlight this week’s US earnings reports (Yahoo Finance)

  • PwC signed a confidential settlement with the Tax Office in March over legal professional privilege claims (AFR)

  • Adani’s Carmichael coal mine in central Queensland lost $365.7m last year (The Australian)

  • Blackstone’s flagship US property fund has become a net seller of assets to meet client redemptions and fund investments in AI data centres (Financial Times)

  • US newswire Associated Press signed a deal to license its content to Open AI (Wall Street Journal)

TRADING FLOOR

M&A:

  • The Infrastructure Fund mandated a strategic review of its 7.19% stake in Perth Airport. (AFR | The Australian)

  • PAG is in discussions to acquire Australian Venue Co. (AFR)

  • Genesis Capital has acquired a stake in AusTrials. (AFR)

  • Sales process for Affinity Education and Guardian Childcare & Education are underway this week. (The Australian)

  • Supalai is believed to be in talks with Lendlease about taking a 50% stake in its land lease community business. (The Australian)

  • An international insurance broker is tipped to be the front-runner in the race to buy TA Associates’ Honan Insurance. (The Australian)

Capital Markets:

  • Strandline Resources has designated three brokers for a $30m equity raising. (AFR)

  • Quadrant Private Equity is pursuing debt investors to stock up on Jaybro. (AFR)

  • Aura Group is targeting to raise up to $100m for a multi-asset fund. (AFR)

  • Mosaic Group expects a $33m turnaround in earnings for FY23. (BNA)

VC:

  • Cartelux, an adtech company serving major car brands, has secured $3m in a post-seed investment round backed by QIC and TEN13. (BNA | StartupDaily)

Others:

  • Prospa has reported a total non-cash ECL provision of $58m. (BNA)

THE WATERCOOLER