☕️Pressure Fermentation

Good morning.

Activist shareholder and one-time CEO-in-waiting Robert Foye will ratchet up his campaign to restore Treasury Wine Estates to its former glory, as he looks to meet with frustrated investors and convince a reluctant management team on his turnaround strategy.

Speaking from Houston, the wine industry veteran told Capital Brief he was talking to top investors and analysts about how to urgently turn around the company’s performance as he looks to emulate the company’s growth trajectory between 2014 and 2018 under his stewardship.

“If investors feel the stock price and the valuation is not going in the direction they want, and they want to have some more help, then I’ll provide that,” Foye said, adding that he was “absolutely” sticking around. “I’m going to keep the pressure on.”

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Market movers

Shares in fast-food chain Guzman y Gomez surged Tuesday after the company posted a stronger-than-expected 19.5% increase in third-quarter network sales to $345.9 million and reaffirmed its full-year guidance, marking its biggest single-day gain since its market debut in 2024.

The quick sync

• Australia lost over 33,000 small businesses in three years as regulation and costs bite. (Capital Brief)

• Australia risks repeating Europe's innovation-killing mistakes if it copies EU digital regulation rules, writes Christopher Yoo. (Capital Brief)

• Not all ASX software stocks face the same AI threat. Regulatory moats and lock-in matter more than ever, writes Sally Yu. (Capital Brief)

• The Middle East fuel crisis drove Australian EV sales to a record high in March. (Capital Brief)

• Roberts-Smith's own defamation case to clear his name may now help convict him of murder. (Capital Brief)

• Lawyers called it "ill-advised" for Australia's new solicitor-general Ruth Higgins to appear alongside the attorney-general at her own appointment announcement. (Capital Brief)

• Senior Labor powerbroker Don Farrell urged Albanese to expand parliament, saying it is "what great Labor leaders do." The PM ruled it out. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• BOQ forms $3.7b partnership with Challenger to boost funding and returns. (Capital Brief)

• Anthropic secures major compute deal with Google and Broadcom. (Capital Brief)

• Hologic is taken private by Blackstone and TPG for up to USD79 per share, with Joe Almeida named CEO. (Hologic)

• Nvidia’s SchedMD acquisition sparks worries over control of key AI and supercomputing software. (Reuters)

• Pershing Square Capital, led by Bill Ackman, proposed a EUR56b takeover of Universal Music Group. (Capital Brief)

Capital Markets

• CSL Limited expects minimal impact from new US tariffs. (Capital Brief)

• NextDC raises $1b in hybrid bonds to support expansion. (Capital Brief)

• Macquarie Capital preps local super fund for SpaceX $2.9t IPO. (AFR)

• DigiCo cancels LA data centre project over approval uncertainty. (Capital Brief)

• NDIS invoices flagged as outdated and prone to fraud. (AFR)

• Telix Pharmaceuticals shares rose after reporting strong Q1 revenue growth and reaffirming its full-year outlook. (Capital Brief)

• Taurus Funds Management is preparing an IPO or sale for Western Australia’s Abra Mine / Endurance Mining, two years after it collapsed. (AFR)

• a2 Milk settles class action for $62m. (Capital Brief)

• Fund managers will review Firmus’ IPO in Sydney, led by ex-insider trader Oliver Curtis, with ASX clearance pending and high reputational stakes. (The Australian)

• Santos misses Pikka project start, buoyed by high energy prices. (AFR)

• ASIC bans adviser over Shield fund collapse. (Capital Brief)

• Swipejobs hires Barrenjoey for $2b IPO. (AFR)

• High fuel prices boost Australian EV sales to record levels. (Capital Brief)

• Intel joins Musk’s Terafab to develop chips for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. (Bloomberg)

• Ex-Treasury Wine exec Robert Foye pushes turnaround plan to investors. (Capital Brief)

• T&G Global considers breaking up T&G Fresh units. (AFR)

• Matt Canavan unveils economic revival plan with tariffs and infrastructure boom. (Capital Brief)

• Sony Pictures restructures, cutting jobs to focus on franchises, anime, and digital content. (Bloomberg)

• US durable goods orders drop 1.4% in February. (Capital Brief)

• ASX tech sell-off overstates AI risk; strong-moat software firms may benefit. (Capital Brief)

• Apple’s first foldable iPhone is on track for September launch despite delay rumors. (Bloomberg)

• Australia can balance AI innovation with smart regulation. (Capital Brief)

• Catapult Sports has lost over half its value but its CEO and analysts insist the business is strong. (Capital Brief)

• Regulation and costs drive decline in Australian small businesses. (Capital Brief)

VC 

• Beaten Zone Venture Partners raised $2.6m in March as investor demand grows for sovereign defence technology. (Capital Brief)

• Chime Labs raises $900k pre-seed for AI receptionist for tradies. (Startup Daily)

• Triple Bubble VC hits $10m first close on $50m fund. (Startup Daily)

People moves

• Ben Roberts-Smith charged with war crimes; past defamation case against Nine Entertainment may affect verdict. (Capital Brief)

• Regal’s small companies co-manager James Sioud exits after a decade. (AFR)

The watercooler