☕️ Predator’s market

Good morning.

Challenger's decision to cut its takeover offer for Pepper Money blaming deteriorating market conditions looked like a retreat. But dealmakers told Capital Brief’s Hugo Mathers it may be the opening act of something altogether more aggressive.

The same volatility that's pushing some buyers to the exit is handing cashed-up opportunists a rare window to move.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in airline Virgin Australia fell 5% on Friday, bringing losses over the past month to 23%, as the carrier said it planned to raise airfares by about 5% to offset surging costs driven by a tightening aviation fuel market as a direct consequence of the ongoing Middle East conflict.

The quick sync

• AI attacks and economic crisis top Australians' national security fears, but nearly half also believe a foreign military attack on home soil is probable within years. (Capital Brief)

• Tech's race to go AI-first is pushing workplace cultures to breaking point, and research suggests sacrificing culture for performance may be self-defeating. (Capital Brief)

• As AI companies soften their safety commitments, the risks of deploying these models are now for businesses and governments to manage, writes Andrew Macken. (Capital Brief)

• Derek Sivers ended a six-year public absence at Adelaide's SouthStart, delivering a defence of radical humanness that won the room before dividing it. (Capital Brief)

• Canavan goes on the attack after a Capital Brief/Demos AU poll shows One Nation poised to gut the Coalition. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• Policy Institute Australia finds a $35b cost blowout in energy transition projects could push household electricity bills up by $600 a year. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Flight Centre buys Fresh Approach to grow its events business. (Capital Brief)

• Scottish Pacific draws eight suitors, including Brookfield and BGH, ahead of $1b+ sale. (AFR)

• Mystery global buyer eyes I-MED amid Permira’s IPO plans. (The Australian)

• Infinity Pharmacy Group sale down to four bidders for $400–$500m portfolio. (AFR)

• BlackRock-Keppel consortium vies for Ausgrid’s $2.5b Plus ES meters business. (The Australian)

• Premier Investments posts ~$102m profit, driven by strong brand sales. (Capital Brief)

• Regulatory changes on agent commissions have limited effect on UP Education sale. (The Australian)

• 3D Energi eyes buy-out talks with Conoco as gas market heats up. (AFR)

• Fitness & Lifestyle Group, owner of Fitness First and other gyms, targets $1bn-plus sale to global fitness operators and PE buyers. (The Australian)

Capital Markets

• Canva targets IPO next year amid strong growth and rising AI competition. (Capital Brief)

• Government boosts refinery subsidies to support fuel supply and operations. (Capital Brief)

• Electro Optic Systems shares drop after CEO sells 1.5m shares. (Capital Brief)

• Pay.com.au gears up for $850m IPO with roadshows in major cities. (AFR)

• Court finds Macquarie breached rules over failed Shield investment oversight. (Capital Brief)

• Abercrombie challenges ruling over Humm’s misleading takeover handling. (Capital Brief)

• IEA urges travel limits as Iran conflict disrupts oil; Ampol secures overseas supply. (AFR)

• SouthStart keeps its quirky, independent style with standout guests like Derek Sivers. (Capital Brief)

• Gloria Jean’s shareholder urges management overhaul amid 70% market cap decline. (AFR)

• One Nation gains amid global turmoil and chaotic news coverage. (Capital Brief)

• AI push in tech strains company culture amid layoffs and performance pressures. (Capital Brief)

• Jury rules Musk defrauded Twitter investors over 2022 buyout. (AFR)

• Iran war drives up oil, slows growth, and raises inflation forecasts. (Capital Brief)

• A new ANU study shows Australians fear AI, economic crises, and military attacks amid low confidence in preparedness. (Capital Brief)

• HP’s OmniBook 7 impresses technically but lacks Windows’ competitive edge. (AFR)

• Tech sector adds $249b to Australia’s economy, driving productivity and exports. (Capital Brief)

• Net-zero project cost surge could raise Aussie energy bills by $600. (Capital Brief)

• Market downturn may spark opportunistic M&A spree. (Capital Brief)

• High Court tests ASIC’s claim that crypto products need a licence. (Capital Brief)

VC 

• Macquarie-backed finance startup Rela expands to UK with Macquarie backing to manage renewable energy leases. (AFR)

People moves

• Citi hires Goldman Sachs banker Ben Bartholomaeus for healthcare advisory. (AFR)

• Telstra names Holly Kramer to board as Elana Rubin retires. (Capital Brief)

• Craveable Brands names ex-Domino’s Asia boss, Josh Kilimnik, as new CEO. (AFR)

• Richard White personally negotiated $5m settlement over employee allegations. (AFR)

• Four Federal Court judges join Australian Competition Tribunal. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler