☕️ Poking holes

Good morning.

Bleecker Street Research published an aggressive short report against Firmus rival Sharon AI last week, just as the company was reportedly meeting potential ASX investors.

The fund questions the validity of its USD1.25 billion anchor contract and targets chief executive James Manning.

A Street Talk piece over the weekend doesn't exactly rebut the report directly, but it presents certain facts that push back on Bleecker's central claim that the ESDS contract cannot perform.

Popcorn, anyone?

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in big four lender ANZ fell on Friday despite posting a first-half cash profit of $3.78 billion that came above market consensus, as investors focused on disappointing revenue trends that UBS analyst John Storey said cast doubt over the bank's longer-term growth trajectory. Storey concluded the result was "driven by better-than- expected costs, coupled with lower-than-expected credit impairments" rather than the revenue momentum needed to meet the bank's FY28–FY30 targets.

The quick sync

• Startup founders rally behind MAGA-style national pride movement asking if Australia's best days are ahead. (Capital Brief)

• Australians trust public institutions less than ever but the RBA is winning confidence back. (Capital Brief)

• Tabcorp argues that removing R&D tax breaks will hurt anti-money laundering work as reform groups push back. (Capital Brief)

• RBA expected to raise rates Tuesday but economists split on what comes next. (Capital Brief)

• AI concentrates venture capital into fewer hands, as US megafunds eye Australia's super savings pool. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• PlayMetrics is acquiring SportsEngine with backing from Genstar Capital. (Bloomberg)

• GameStop prepares a potential bid for eBay. (Reuters)

• Meta acquires an AI robotics firm to advance humanoid technology. (Bloomberg)

• Fletcher Building nears final bids for its residential division. (AFR)

• Billionaires Lakshmi Mittal and Adar Poonawalla acquire an Indian cricket franchise for USD1.7b. (Capital Brief)

• Catch Group founders plan to revive the Click Frenzy sales event. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Pete Hegseth criticizes Dario Amodei while defending Pentagon AI use. (AFR)

• Apple shares rise on strong Q3 outlook. (Capital Brief)

• Coles Group revenue grows 3.1% despite weaker liquor sales. (Capital Brief)

• Qantas extends schedule changes due to high fuel costs. (Capital Brief)

• SkyCity Entertainment Group cuts earnings guidance citing uncertain outlook. (Capital Brief)

• Plant-based meat demand persists but needs better taste to grow. (Capital Brief)

• Qantas and Jetstar cut capacity due to high fuel costs. (AFR)

• Evolution Mining increases gold reserves on strong drilling results. (Capital Brief)

• Boaz Weinstein wins a fund battle involving a SpaceX stake. (WSJ)

• Lachlan Murdoch sets aside millions to settle a tax probe. (AFR)

• ANZ posts strong profit growth amid turnaround. (Capital Brief)

• Housing and migration pressures are driving political and economic tensions. (Capital Brief)

• Tesla earns more from batteries than EV sales in Australia. (AFR)

• Producer prices rise 0.4% driven by construction and oil costs. (Capital Brief)

• Craig Laundy moves to settle a dispute over a family pub business. (AFR)

• Andrew Charlton calls for stronger investment in Australian AI. (Capital Brief)

• Coles Group sees strong sales but rising supplier price hike requests. (AFR)

• ResMed revenue rises 11% on strong demand and appoints new CFO. (Capital Brief)

• A legal dispute emerges over a Gold Coast apartment development deal. (AFR)

• Southern Cross Media faces pressure from activist investors. (AFR)

• Atlassian shows resilience despite broader SaaS sector challenges. (Capital Brief)

• Sephora Australian losses deepen despite higher sales. (AFR)

• ANZ reports strong profit but warns of oil-related risks. (AFR)

• Gina Rinehart rejects demands over royalty restructuring. (AFR)

• Craig Laundy plans to leverage major brands to expand a new radio network. (AFR)

• Jim Chalmers warns Middle East conflict will strain the budget. (Capital Brief)

• Australian super funds are increasingly investing in professional sports assets. (Capital Brief)

• Oracle is favored by analysts but faces weak investor demand due to risks. (Bloomberg)

• Spirit Airlines shares plunge on shutdown concerns after bailout failure. (Capital Brief)

• EQT explores strategic options for WS Audiology, including a possible IPO. (Bloomberg)

• Aegon and Barclays warn of market risks. (Bloomberg)

• Roblox launches AI tools to compete with game engines. (Bloomberg)

• World’s fourth-largest gold miner Navoi Mining & Metallurgical Co. pauses its planned IPO. (Bloomberg)

• Donald Trump doubles EU auto tariffs, escalating trade tensions. (Capital Brief)

• Coinbase reaches agreement on part of crypto regulation. (Bloomberg)

• Pershing Square IPO investors gain from incentives despite mixed market reception. (Bloomberg)

• Reserve Bank of Australia expected to raise rates, with outlook uncertain. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• Matt Canavan warns against aggressive tax changes ahead of the budget. (Capital Brief)

• Fishbowl targets major US expansion as revenues grow. (AFR)

• Andrew Forrest seeks investors for a $4b Queensland wind farm project. (AFR)

• Fallout continues over a $300m misstep involving Bluey. (AFR)

• Backers of the Ravenswood gold mine receive a temporary financial reprieve. (AFR)

• Morgan Stanley Australia’s profit surged despite a slight drop in revenue. (The Australian)

• Pengana Capital Group launches a global private equity trust targeting AI opportunities. (AFR)

• Louis Vuitton Australia increases payouts to its billionaire owner. (AFR)

• NextDC and Suncorp raised $950m in bonds as investor demand for debt returned. (The Australian)

• Jim Chalmers says the government will retain all revenue upgrades in the budget. (Capital Brief)

• Tim Wilson urges budget support for small businesses and entrepreneurs. (Capital Brief)

• Surging coal prices are driving strong investor demand for Australian coal assets like Vitrinite. (The Australian)

• “Build Australia” movement promotes renewed economic patriotism. (Capital Brief)

• SkinKandy’s IPO story hinges on aggressive offshore expansion to drive growth. (The Australian)

• Aluminium producers ramp up output as war-driven prices boost profits. (AFR)

• Private equity investor body sounds alarm on ‘conflict vehicles’. (FT)

VC 

• AI is reshaping not just SaaS but also the venture capital industry. (Capital Brief)

People moves

• Contact Energy chair Rob McDonald to retire, successor appointed. (Capital Brief)

• Brendan Humphreys steps down as CTO of Canva. (Capital Brief)

• Senior WiseTech Global executive, Melina Green, files a Fair Work claim over dismissal. (AFR)

The watercooler