☕️ Poker face

Good morning.

The US Federal Reserve raised policy interest rates in the early hours of this morning to a 22-year high, as was widely expected. The Fed also flagged that in its official projections that it expects to make one more rate hike this year.

But to paraphrase the Wall Street Journal’s esteemed Heard on the Street column, investors can see through J Powell’s poker face. The reaction in interest rate futures markets (and the muted move in equities) suggests the Fed could be done here.

With inflation and the jobs market both cooling in the world’s largest economy that would make sense, the Fed just can’t say it yet as that would risk creating a different set of problems…

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MARKET MOVERS

*Stock data as of the market close. Commodities and crypto data in USD.

Market News: Is Nuix back? Not quite, but shares in the surveillance software business had a good day on Wednesday and have had a pretty good run this year, doubling in value (albeit off a very low base). Recall that Nuix (which still counts investment powerhouse Macquarie as its largest shareholder) was embroiled in a disclosure scandal in 2021 that smashed its share price, claimed the scalps of multiple senior executives and resulted in an avalanche of lawsuits.

Yesterday’s rise came after the company said it expects to report a 20% jump in revenue and a more than doubling in EBITDA when it reports full year results next month. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. At yesterday’s closing price of $1.30 the stock is still miles below the $5.30 price Macquarie floated it at, let alone its pre-scandal highs above $11.

THE QUICK SYNC

• The US Fed hiked interest rates to a 22 year high and hinted at further rises. (CNN)

  • Investors can read the Fed’s poker face (WSJ)

• Meta’s results and guidance beat expectations. (CNBC)

• Top tech companies Anthropic, Google, Microsoft and OpenAI have formed a working group seeking to establish best AI practises. (FT)

• Rio Tinto’s first-half earnings slid to their lowest levels in 3 years. (Reuters)

•  Open AI has hired a former Microsoft lawyer to oversee negotiations with publishers to license their content. (The Information)

TRADING FLOOR

M&A:

• Stockland has agreed on terms to acquire five land lease communities from the Puljich family. (AFR)

• Regal Partners is teaming up with River Capital to make a bid for Pacific Current Group. (AFR | The Australian)

• TA Associates has taken bids for its 80% stake in Honan Insurance. (AFR)

• Ares Management is ready to lend to help mop up the TPG-Invocare deal. (AFR)

• Strike Energy’s $125m offer for the bulk of Talon Energy was not excessive, according to Wilsons analysts. (The Australian)

Capital Markets:

• Panoramic Resources is set to announce an equity raising by the end of the week. (The Australian)

• Main Sequence raises $450m for its third fund. (BNA | StartupDaily)

• IGO Limited has decided not to invest in Panoramic Resources’ $40m raise. (AFR | The Australian)

• Future Super has tapped E&P Corporate Advisory to drum up fresh capital. (AFR)

VC:

• UQ Ventures launches Empower Women's Accelerator (BNA)

• Startmate received a $300,000 grant from LaunchVic. (StartupDaily)

Others:

• Lactalis gets a $950,000 fine from ACCC over allegations it breached the Dairy Code of Conduct. (AFR)

• CBA is cutting staff across the board as it prepares for the new financial year. (AFR)

• GCB Constructions has gone into administration after more than 40 years. (BNA)

• Meta and its subsidiaries have copped $20m in fines over misleading data protection claims. (SMH)

THE WATERCOOLER