☕️ Passive reckoning?

Good morning.

Nothing like a sharp ultimatum to jolt investors awake. Orbis’ Eric Marais tells Capital Brief’s Jack Derwin that passive money will likely become dead money this decade. With $700 billion locked in Australian index funds, his zero real return forecast over 10 years might shake “set and forget” types.

Marais says Orbis is leaning hard into contrarian plays—overweight UK equities, Korean banks (might hurt today) and a punt on Nasdaq-listed QXO, a building materials disruptor.

Not every call has landed; Intel was a costly flop. But with stretched valuations making index bets look shaky, Orbis is staying loyal to its value-first philosophy.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Metcash shares jumped Tuesday as brokers cheered its interim numbers. Citi flipped it to ‘buy,’ betting on a hardware rebound while Morningstar sees a 10% hardware surge by FY26. Macquarie’s still sceptical though, flagging weak housing data.

The quick sync

• Life360 founder Chris Hulls envisions the ASX-listed family tracker soaring to a $100b valuation, powered by surging subscriptions despite competition from tech giants. (Capital Brief)

• ASIC's new guidance offers clarity for crypto industry, but uncertainties remain. (Capital Brief)

• China escalates tech trade war with US banning exports of chip-critical minerals, lifts Australia bans. (Capital Brief)(SCMP)(Bloomberg)(Capital Brief)

• Deloitte finds Cbus superannuation fund has shortcomings in complying with the best financial interests duty. (Capital Brief)

• BlackRock’s HPS purchase will make three founders billionaires. (Bloomberg)

Trading floor

M&A

• China Investment Corporation is selling a large block of Goodman Group shares worth $1.9bn. (AFR)

• Pro Medicus shareholders are selling a $500m block of shares. (AFR)

• Auckland Council is set to sell a significant stake in Auckland International Airport. (The Australian)

• PwC is in talks to sell its insolvency unit, Business Restructuring Services, to Teneo. (AFR)

• Carlyle Group is in exclusive talks to acquire Livingbridge's Waste Services Group. (AFR)

• Origin Energy is seeking a partner for its Yanco Delta wind farm project, with Barrenjoey and ICA Partners advising on the process. (The Australian)

• ASIC extends its contract with Nuix despite ongoing legal proceedings. (AFR)

• Social Kung Fu partners with Devika to develop an AI-powered anti-bullying app. (BNA)

Capital Markets

• ARENA grants $10m to Fortescue for developing electric vehicle fast chargers for mining sites. (Capital Brief)

• Ramelius Resources is increasing its stake in Spartan Resources by participating in Spartan's equity raising. (The Australian)

• Steadfast Group's independent review finds no evidence of wrongdoing related to regulatory non-compliance. (Capital Brief)

• 29Metals and Titan Minerals, both copper miners, are raising funds through equity offerings amid falling share prices. (AFR)

• Woolworths loses $50m due to worker strikes. (Capital Brief)

• Spartan Resources is raising $220m in an institutional placement. (AFR)

• RealThing's ASX reverse takeover fails due to funding issues. (BNA)

• Software startup Servicetitan seeks up to US$5.2b valuation in us IPO. (Reuters)

VC

• Visibuild raises $6.6m for construction tech platform. (Startup Daily)

• MGA Thermal secures additional funding from climate tech investors Electrifi Ventures and Climate Salad. (Startup Daily)

• Fresho raises $17m in Series B funding led by Geoff Tarrant. (BNA)

People moves

• Clayton Utz partner Niro Ananda is set to resign and potentially join King & Wood Mallesons. (AFR)

• Nufarm CFO Paul Townsend is stepping down and will be replaced by Brendan Ryan. (Capital Brief)

• Commonwealth Bank is restructuring its business banking team, leading to job cuts. (AFR)

• Zip co-founder Larry Diamond stepped down as a director and US chair to focus on philanthropy. (Capital Brief)

• Intel’s CEO search turns outward, targeting heavyweights like Marvell’s Matt Murphy and ex-Cadence chief Lip-Bu Tan for leadership void. (Bloomberg)

• Tesla to appeal US$101b Musk pay rejection as court slams shareholder vote strategy. (CNN)(Reuters)

The watercooler