☕️Out of Puff?

Good morning.

$2.3 billion market darling 4DMedical is expected to raise $150 million after an extraordinary 5-month share price surge, but investors are split on whether the medtech has run out of puff.

Shares in the four-dimensional lung-imaging software firm have surged more than 1,800% since July, catapulting the Melbourne-based outfit into the market spotlight and putting it on course to crack the ASX 200 — before a rare pullback on Monday.

Fund managers are now mixed on whether the rally has further to run, Capital Brief reports.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in defence tech firm Electro Optic Systems jumped Tuesday for a second straight session after it announced plans to acquire UK counterdrone company MARSS Group for $54 million in cash. The deal is expected to be earnings and cashflow neutral in 2026 but deliver a financial uplift from 2027.

The quick sync

• SecondQuarter’s third fund wants to close a $12b venture liquidity gap and bring in super funds. (Capital Brief)

• Australia’s AI skills are emerging from builders, not classrooms, writes Chris Kirk. (Capital Brief)

• HESTA is urging faster gender diversity progress after opposing directors at 50-plus ASX firms in 2025. (Capital Brief)

• GQG lost $3.1b in December after betting against the AI boom – 2026 will reveal if the call was too early or just wrong. (Capital Brief)

• Federation alleges ACI Logistix misled it before a merger that ended with Sendle’s closure and frozen redemptions. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Rio Tinto hires banks to advise on potential Glencore takeover. (Capital Brief) (Bloomberg)

• I Squared plans sale of Australian energy firm Octa. (AFR)

• Harris Farm nears $1b in sales amid narrowing losses. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Fletcher Building does not expect a strong sales recovery before 2027. (Capital Brief)

• GQG Partners’ funds under management declined in December amid rising net outflows. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• ANZ lifts savings rates to compete for deposits. (AFR)

• Endeavour Group forecasts a lower half-year profit in FY26. (Capital Brief)

• Electro Optic Systems’ shares climbed after announcing a $54m acquisition of MARSS Group. (Capital Brief)

• Consumer sentiment weakened in January as rate-rise fears grew. (Capital Brief) (Westpac)

• L1 Group’s FUM rose $700m in the December quarter. (Capital Brief)

• Jobs growth slowed in December, but the labour market stays tight. (Capital Brief)

• Former Morgan Stanley Wealth Management advisers, led by Steve Moon, launch new wealth firm Granite Bay. (AFR)

• Gold miners pushed the ASX higher after Citi raised its gold price outlook. (Capital Brief)

• Federation Asset Management claims ACI Logistix misled it before Sendle’s collapse. (Capital Brief)

• Dan Murphy’s hits record Christmas sales, but profits fall. (AFR)

• HESTA urges companies to lift their gender diversity efforts. (Capital Brief)

• JPMorgan Q4 profit drops 7% on weaker investment banking fees. (Capital Brief)

• US core inflation rises less than expected to 2.6% in December. (Capital Brief)

• SecondQuarter targets Australia’s $12b venture liquidity gap with new fund. (Capital Brief)

• Australia’s AI workforce needs hands-on builders, not just formal programs. (Capital Brief)

• Dimon warns interfering with Fed would push up rates. (WSJ)

• AI startup sued by Palantir says company wants to ‘scare others’ from leaving. (WSJ)

• ASX IPOs opened 2026 flat, but easing inflation has fundies eyeing a rebound. (AFR)

• Hedge funds turn chaos into cash for best gains in 16 years. (Bloomberg)

VC 

• Gym software platform Hapana raised $7.25m in a funding round led by Microequities and OIF Ventures, lifting its valuation. (Startup Daily)

People moves

• Kevin Rudd is leaving his role as US ambassador early to lead the Asia Society. (Capital Brief)

• Macquarie hires Westpac treasurer Jo Dawson. (AFR)

• Lynas Rare Earths CEO Amanda Lacaze will retire after 12 years. (Capital Brief)

• Ansell appointed Jonas Samuelson as a new non-executive director. (Capital Brief)

• Goldman Sachs technology research MD Kane Hannan exits. (AFR)

• Advanced Navigation appointed Michelle Toscan as head of APAC sales. ( Capital Brief)

• MG CEO Peter Ciao resigns amid dealer tensions and sales slump. (AFR)

• Global central bankers back Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid US DOJ threats. (Capital Brief)

• David Webb, Hong Kong’s most vocal activist investor, dies at 60. (Bloomberg)

The watercooler