☕️Oracle of Oracle

Good morning.

Is Oracle the new Nvidia, or could the skyrocketing share price that on Wednesday pushed Larry Ellison onto the throne of the richest person on earth be too good to be true?

The staggering 41% surge in Oracle’s share price on Wednesday saw the fortune of co-founder and CTO of Oracle, push ahead of Elon Musk’s USD385 billion ($581.4 billion) pot, to USD393 billion.

The jump came on the back of Oracle’s forecast that booked revenue from its core cloud business would soon exceed USD500 billion.

But let’s not forget the company’s past. In the early 1990s, just a handful of years after going public, Oracle booked its first quarterly loss and revelations about deceptive sales accounting tanked the share price. Then, for a couple of days in early 2000, Ellison surpassed Bill Gates as the richest man in the world, before a bug-riddled applications suite 11i saw stock plummet 14% in five days.

Is Ellison the true Oracle of Omaha Oracle or does pride cometh before the fall?

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in Liontown Resources sank over 18% Wednesday to their lowest in over a year, leading a brutal sell-off in lithium stocks after China moved to restart a key mine, reigniting fears of supply pressure.

The quick sync

• OpenAI execs to meet Treasurer Jim Chalmers over potential AI investment in Australia. (Capital Brief)

• PsiQuantum raises $1.5b Series E at $7b valuation, backed by Macquarie and Nvidia. (Capital Brief)

• Hopes for a series of RBA rate cuts are fading fast as economists confront stronger data and mixed signals from Bullock. (Capital Brief)

• With Rupert stepping back, Lachlan Murdoch has finally sealed the family empire, and Aussie fundies are piling in. (Capital Brief)

• After a brutal sell-off, CSL is catching the eye of once-sceptical value investors like Simon Mawhinney, as cracks widen at the top of the ASX. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Lederer to lodge amended bidder’s statement for Elanor fund takeover after Takeovers Panel review. (Capital Brief)

• AMC Consultants seeks PE buyers after posting $55m revenue, $8.3m EBITDA. (AFR)

• Anglo presses on with coal sales amid USD55b Teck merger, sparking speculation of rival bids from Rio Tinto or Glencore. (The Australian)

• Anduril wins $1.7b Navy deal to build autonomous Ghost Shark submarines. (Capital Brief)

• BoQ hires BofA for $3.8b loan sale, private credit giants tipped as buyers. (The Australian)

• Take-private activity heats up on ASX in FY26, led by PEP’s Johns Lyng bid. (AFR)

• News Corp and OpenAI in early talks on Realtor.com real estate product. (Capital Brief)

• AGR trims Ridley stake to 13.5%, first ownership shift in over a decade. (AFR)

• Luye plans Aurora Healthcare break-up sale; Genesis, Mercury tipped as asset buyers. (The Australian)

• Soul Patts and Brickworks $14b merger approved by shareholders. (Capital Brief)

• Platinum Equity moves toward buying UGL’s transport unit; final bids due mid-October. (AFR)

• Hostplus sells Lendlease shares while pushing to strip it of property fund management. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Vulcan Energy wins approval for Frankfurt lithium plant, set to produce 24,000 tonnes a year for Europe’s EV industry. (Capital Brief)

• Iluka shares sink 11% on Cataby and SR2 production suspension. (Capital Brief)

• Judo Bank jumps after Citi upgrades stock; broader bank rally follows sector-wide target price lifts. (Capital Brief)

• Element 25, Mont Royal Resources tap investors for project funding, including Butcherbird development. (AFR)

• CSL’s restructure-driven slump makes stock appealing, says Allan Gray’s Simon Mawhinney. (Capital Brief)

• Metcash shares up as director retires, FY26 costs flagged. (Capital Brief)

• Novo Nordisk up 4% after 9,000 layoffs, $1.9b savings plan and lowered guidance. (Capital Brief)

• US PPI slips 0.1% in August, boosting Fed rate cut expectations. (Capital Brief)

• BlackRock’s GIP raises USD10b to fund Aramco Jafurah gas project stake. (Capital Brief)

• Australian Retirement Trust invests USD 650m in Macquarie clean energy fund as its first impact investment. (AFR)

• Klarna soars 43% on NYSE debut after USD1.37b IPO. (Capital Brief)

VC 

• ANZ’s VC arm 1835i under review as cost cuts, exits fuel doubts over future. (Capital Brief)

People moves

• NAB slashes 410 jobs, shifts roles to India and Vietnam. (Capital Brief)

• ANZ markets head Anshul Sidher exits after 13 years; interim leaders appointed. (Capital Brief)

• Michael Silverton, tipped as a future Macquarie CEO, gave a solo presentation at Barclays’ finance conference. (AFR)

• Kogan.com director James Spenceley quits board to prioritise humanitarian efforts. (Capital Brief)

• Sussan Ley sacks Jacinta Price from shadow cabinet over leadership defiance and refusal to apologise for Indian migrant comments. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler