☕️ Now what?

Good morning.

The US Fed spent the better part of a year convincing itself it had tariff inflation figured out. Then the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump had exceeded his authority, and the scramble to replace his tariff regime has left everyone (Fed included) back at square one.

Most immediately the USD142 billion ($201 billion) collected under IEEPA authority in 2025 now sits in legal limbo, with more than 1,500 companies already lining up in the US Court of International Trade to claim it back.

Beyond the economics, the ruling has also blunted Trump's ability to deploy tariff threats as instant diplomatic leverage. Awkward timing, with a Beijing summit scheduled for early April.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in Telix Pharmaceuticals surged Friday after the biotech forecast revenue of USD950 million to USD970 million, ahead of expectations, despite reporting a full-year net loss.

The quick sync

• Donald Trump's 15% tariff and Australian inflation data out Wednesday will drive markets and shape the RBA’s rate outlook this week. (Capital Brief)

• Eucalyptus' $1.6b sale to Hims & Hers is a landmark Australian VC exit bypassing the ASX entirely. (Capital Brief)

• Eucalyptus' USD1.15b sale to Hims & Hers will deliver the biggest employee equity payout in Australian startup history. (Capital Brief)

• DigiCo CEO Michael Juniper is dismissing the threat of Firmus's ASX debut and zeroing in on a share price trading at less than half the company's net asset value. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Eucalyptus’ $1.6b sale to Hims & Hers will deliver huge returns to VCs, staff, and advisers. (Capital Brief)

• ColCap nears record $2.7b RMBS deal, topping non-bank transaction history. (AFR)

• Calvary and Northwest Healthcare launch rival bid for Healthscope. (AFR)

• Ramsay to spin off European unit, sparking takeover speculation. (AFR)

• I-MED Radiology to acquire Radiology Group to expand imaging services in NSW. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• Bastion Security, backed by Quadrant, acquires Astralas in its fourth deal. (AFR)

• Barrenjoey, Citi advise QIC’s Bluecurrent in Ausgrid Plus ES bid. (The Australian)

• AS Watson, backed by Li Ka-shing, eyes Australian Priceline pharmacy acquisition. (AFR)

• Santos secures 10-year gas deal to support Whyalla Steelworks’ green iron transition. (Capital Brief)

• AustralianSuper pushes BlueScope to fairly consider $14.2b bid. (AFR)

• Bailey Nelson preps for sale as founders seek new investors. (AFR)

• Bunnings is launching one-hour delivery via Uber Eats to boost ultra-fast retail convenience. (AFR)

• DOJ probes Netflix’s power over filmmakers in Warner deal review. (Bloomberg)

Capital Markets

• QBE posted a strong $3.05b profit, sending shares higher. (Capital Brief)

• DigiCo shares slipped after earnings missed expectations, despite a profit turnaround. (Capital Brief)

• DigiCo CEO confident in asset quality despite 50% share price fall. (Capital Brief)

• Alliance posted a $106m loss due to fleet impairments and contract margin pressures. (Capital Brief)

• Sky News rebrands as News24 while keeping its news identity. (AFR)

• Guzman y Gomez shares fell as its US earnings missed expectations despite strong overall profit growth. (Capital Brief)

• Guzman y Gomez US losses widen to $8m, sparking investor doubts. (Capital Brief)

• Barrenjoey moves to underwrite ASX dividend reinvestment plan. (AFR)

• Mineral Resources posted record $1.2b EBITDA on strong iron ore and lithium performance. (Capital Brief)

• Ramsay Health Care plans to spin off Ramsay Santé to streamline its business. (Capital Brief)

• Qube’s first-half profit rose 7% to $145m on revenue growth and acquisitions. (Capital Brief)

• Megaport halved its interim loss to $3.3m but cut full-year revenue guidance. (Capital Brief)

• Newmont’s profit more than doubled as gold prices jumped 45%. (Capital Brief)

• EatClub raises $27m to expand globally after London launch success. (AFR)

• Ramelius swung to a statutory loss after Spartan buyout costs, despite higher underlying profit. (Capital Brief)

• Telix Pharmaceuticals reports $7.5m loss as revenue rises 56% in 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Blue Owl hit after freezing $1.7b private credit fund for retail investors. (AFR)

• Inghams’ first-half profit falls 65% amid rising costs, prompting lower guidance. (Capital Brief)

• Cobram Estate’s half-year loss more than doubles to $12m amid falling revenue and higher costs. (Capital Brief)

• National Group plans bond issue as lenders seek exit. (The Australian)

• Austal secures $4b Defence contract for eight landing craft, lifting shares. (Capital Brief)

• Paladin shares climb after environmental approval for Patterson Lake South uranium project. (Capital Brief)

• Bapcor plans equity raise after weaker forecast, consulting major shareholders. (The Australian)

• Perseus Mining’s half-year profit falls 8% to $262m on weaker USD. (Capital Brief)

• Macquarie denies claims it had a regulatory advantage as it expands its mortgage market share. (AFR)

• Latitude’s full-year profit more than doubles, sending shares higher. (Capital Brief)

• Riskiest CLO funds are flashing a warning sign. (Bloomberg)

• JPMorgan says it closed Trump's bank accounts a month after Jan 6 attack. (Reuters)

• Lutnick’s Davos speech was ‘just too much,’ Lagarde tells WSJ. (Bloomberg)(WSJ)

• Centerview settles lawsuit over analyst’s need for 8 hours’ sleep. (FT)

• EU may freeze US trade deal approval on Trump tariff ‘chaos’. (Bloomberg)

• Bitcoin’s USD1 trillion identity crisis hits from every direction. (Bloomberg)

VC 

• Australia’s new $500m defence tech fund faces VC resistance because ESG rules restrict weapons investment. (Capital Brief)

• Tractor Ventures' Matt Allen joins Community Music to scale a $10m fund advancing independent artists capital against their streaming royalties (Capital Brief)

People moves

• ACMA names Samantha Yorke as inaugural chief AI officer. (Capital Brief)

• Ingham’s may face activist board challenge after missing earnings guidance. (The Australian)

• Matt Allen joins Community Music to provide venture capital support for independent artists. (Capital Brief)

• A free AI detection tool rated NAB retail boss Ana Marinkovic's LinkedIn post on Kamala Harris as 100% machine-generated. NAB says she wrote it herself. (AFR)

The watercooler