☕️ Nine gambit

Good morning.

Tanarra Capital’s small but strategic position in Nine Entertainment, just as the company prepares to appoint a new CEO, looks less like passive support and more like a calculated bet.

As Capital Brief’s Jack Derwin and John Buckley write, the move, made below the 5% disclosure threshold, suggests John Wylie’s Tanarra sees untapped value in Nine, with its stock 36% below last year’s prices.

From its struggling TV business to Stan’s uphill battle against streaming giants, the company’s disjointed parts are valued higher separately than together, and whispers of its potential break-up are growing louder.

With Nine’s billionaire backer Bruce Gordon watching closely, Wylie’s presence might signal a seismic shift—or a calculated gamble to extract maximum value.

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Market movers

CC Capital’s $4.30 bid for Insignia isn’t just 7.5% above Bain’s—it’s a statement. The stock surged over 14% yesterday, and with the Australian dollar weak and valuations lagging, US funds like CC are wasting no time locking in targets. If this is (full) week one of 2025, we’re in for a busy year.

The quick sync

• Fiona Crosbie on reshaping Allens, leading high-stakes competition cases and the challenges ahead in merger reform and digital regulation. (Capital Brief)

• RBA rate cuts are on the horizon, but economists remain split on timing, with February, May, or later in play as inflation, labour market strength and sluggish growth drive debate. (Capital Brief)

• Private equity firms will push to access US$13 trillion in retirement savings by lobbying for deregulation, aiming to include riskier private investments like leveraged buyouts in 401ks. (FT)

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr's early resignation paves the way for a Trump-appointed banking regulator, intensifying debates over Fed independence and financial oversight. (Fed release)(Reuters)

Trading floor

M&A

• US Steel and Nippon Steel sue Biden over blocked merger, citing political motives and anticompetitive actions. (Capital Brief)

• SPC Global signs major dairy supply deal with Hong Kong's Dairy Farm Company. (Capital Brief)

• Microsoft’s data center pipeline boosts outlook for NextDC amid contract delays. (The Australian)

• Regis Healthcare to acquire BodeWell, expanding in Victoria and southeast Queensland. (Capital Brief)

• DroneShield wins $9.7m Latin America military contract for counterdrone systems. (Capital Brief)

• Insignia Financial considers a $2.9bn bid from CC Capital. (Capital Brief)

• Disney's US$6b merger with FuboTV creates NA's second-largest streaming platform, resolves a key sports lawsuit and strengthens Fubo’s focus with expanded access to ESPN and Disney networks. (WSJ)(FuboTV and Disney statement)

• Japanese chemical firms Taiyo and DIC are exploring a potential merger to consolidate their industries, leveraging DIC's 19% stake in Taiyo and involving private equity. (Bloomberg)

Capital Markets

• SX tech stocks climb, tracking Wall Street gains ahead of CES. (Capital Brief)

• Falling iron ore prices hit ASX stocks; further decline expected in 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Morningstar flags Nanosonics shares as undervalued due to temporary earnings challenges. (Capital Brief)

• ASX poised to rise as Nvidia boosts tech sector, Bitcoin surges. (AFR)

• Gold Road misses guidance but posts record Q4 output, eyes strong 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Bellevue Gold cuts FY25 guidance, expects higher output in second half. (Capital Brief)

VC

• VC-backed founders in China face blacklisting and asset seizures, disrupting the startup ecosystem. (AFR)

People moves

• Nine Entertainment to appoint Amanda Laing for broadcast oversight in management restructure. (AFR)

• Trudeau to resign as PM and Liberal leader amid party pressure and poor polls. (Capital Brief)

• Birchal CEO Matt Vitale resigns; Kirstin Hunter steps in as transition lead. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler