☕️ Liquidity shift

Good morning.

Believe it or not, private markets no longer have the it factor. According to Pitchbook data cited by Bloomberg, fundraising in PE is off 35% in Q1, and private credit’s pacing for its weakest year since 2018. Exits have been clogged and capital calls still seem to exceed distributions, so LPs are understandably waiting for some liquidity before they re-up.

Meanwhile, hedge funds just booked their best quarter of inflows in a decade, pulling in US$25 billion in Q2. Crypto’s also in favour (US$60 billion through July) driven by regulatory clarity and a few decent listings.

The rotation isn’t total, but there’s a real shift into liquidity, out of illiquidity.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in Vault Minerals surged Monday to lead the ASX 200, as gold miners rallied after bullion recorded its strongest gain in two months. The gold price rose 2.2% on Friday after very soft US jobs data and Donald Trump’s rollout of new trade tariffs, both of which fuelled rate-cut bets.

The quick sync

• Reviving Australia’s economy demands a new culture of risk, smarter governance and real ownership in boardrooms, John Wylie writes. (Capital Brief)

• Despite Trump-fuelled ESG backlash, Australia’s banks are pushing ahead on clean energy, and gearing up for a busy few years. (Capital Brief)

• ANU’s Robert Breunig blasts the Productivity Commission’s cashflow tax plan as “experimental” and confusing, warning the body is becoming increasingly irrelevant. (Capital Brief)

• Australia has the land and clean energy for AI data centres, but red tape is sending local players like IREN to build offshore.(Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• NZ power firms agree on Huntly reserve deal to boost energy security. (Capital Brief)

• Healthscope bidders enter 12-week due diligence before binding offers. (AFR)

• HMC taps Campbell Lutyens as it finalises Neoen asset buy. (Capital Brief)

• WiseTech completes $3.3b e2open acquisition, fully debt-funded. (Capital Brief)

• Sundrop, a major tomato grower, is on the market. (AFR)

• IGO offloads Forrestania to Medallion, keeps mineral rights and gold royalty. (Capital Brief)

• Tourism Holdings rejects BGH bid; analysts see recovery potential. (The Australian)

• Nine and News Corp to keep printing newspapers through 2030. (AFR)

• Santos, ENGIE agree on 10-year domestic gas supply from Narrabri. (Capital Brief)

• Gupta seeks new buyers for Tahmoor mine after Oaktree exits funding talks. (AFR)

• Lederer bids to take over Elanor Property Fund, citing poor governance. (Capital Brief)

• Domain shareholders back CoStar’s $3b takeover; court approval remains. (Capital Brief)

• BlueScope leads bid for Whyalla plant with major Asian steelmakers. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Argo profit rises 2.7%, lifts dividend, aided by Tech One. (Capital Brief)

• Netwealth drops SQM over positive ratings for failed $1b super schemes. (AFR)

• Beach posts $44m loss but ups dividend as profits rise. (Capital Brief)

• Neu Horizon gears up for 2026 IPO to fund Swedish uranium project. (AFR)

• Newmont gets extra $154m from Zijin after Ghana lease renewal. (Capital Brief)

• Rokt hikes mParticle pricing to boost revenue ahead of possible IPO. (AFR)

• IREN builds AI mega data centre in Texas, citing Australia’s red tape. (Capital Brief)

• Beach Energy cuts dividends to fund acquisitions amid growth push. (The Australian)

• Tesla grants Musk US$29b in shares to retain him amid legal fight and AI pivot. (Capital Brief)

• Nyrstar smelters get $130m state rescue ahead of national metals plan. (AFR)

• RBA set to cut rates but signal the end is near, as economists warn markets are pricing in too many cuts. (AFR)

VC 

• HSBC targets Aussie startups with new innovation banking arm, offering venture debt and tailored support. (Capital Brief)

• Hypersonix gains investors ahead of NASA test of its hypersonic jet. (AFR)

• Startup working space Tank Stream Labs opens new 2000sqm coworking hub in Adelaide. (Startup Daily)

People moves

• Endeavour Group chair Ari Mervis quits over board rift; profit forecast lowered. (Capital Brief)

• Ex-TPG CFO Grant Dempsey joins a2 Milk board. (Capital Brief)

• Alvarez & Marsal taps McKinsey partner Dorian Gaertner to lead AI push, eyes $100m revenue. (AFR)

• Krissy Barrett named first female AFP chief as Kershaw retires. (Capital Brief)

• Natalie Alford named HESTA's new chief risk officer. (Capital Brief)

• Boeing defence workers strike after rejecting pay deal, citing unfair terms. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler