☕️Lil luck, lotta Soul

Good morning.

While the investment house is “not in a position to take a view on how long the war is going to last,” Soul Patts’ Todd Barlow told Capital Brief, the chief exec said the company has seen its “busiest period ever” and is continuously monitoring events to reposition the portfolio.

The famously long-term investor is adopting a more dynamic approach in response to turbulent global markets, with its emerging companies fund the standout performer for the first-half period, delivering a 37% total return, and jumping from 16% to 21% of its total portfolio.

Barlow describes Soul Patts’ timing of some of those investments — the largest of which include Canadian uranium producer NexGen and counter-drone company Electro Optic Systems — as “very fortunate”.

“Some of the big positions that we’ve taken in that portfolio have been exactly right for the times. It wasn’t necessarily predicted, but a bit lucky.”

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Market movers

Shares in Australian counter-drone technology company DroneShield rose a second straight session on Thursday as investors rushed to gain exposure to the Iran war, with the ASX-listed company seen as a direct beneficiary of surging global demand for drone defence systems as the conflict drives military spending.

The quick sync

• Pay.com.au CEO defends $850 million IPO valuation as RBA reforms loom and analysts balk. (Capital Brief)

• Anthropic’s boss Dario Amodei heads to Canberra and Sydney next week with a geopolitical pitch, a government lobbying campaign and data centre ambitions in tow. (Capital Brief)

• Westpac culls sub-brands but CEO warns the hard part of its tech overhaul still ahead. (Capital Brief)

• AI will commoditise software but systems that hold operational truth and survive regulatory scrutiny will endure, writes Charlie Wood. (Capital Brief)

• Mallesons goes independent on Monday after 14 years with King & Wood. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• St Barbara Limited advances Simberi stake sale, targeting $500m gain. (Capital Brief)

• Airtasker lands $5m ad deal with Nine Entertainment. (Capital Brief)

• Ex-KKR China leaders’ DCP Capital nears $450m acquisition of Vitaco, owner of Musashi and Nutra-Life. (AFR)

• KKR to buy Nothing Bundt Cakes for USD2b+. (Reuters)

• T&G Global restarts sale process with Goldman Sachs after stronger performance. (The Australian)

• Westpac to unify commercial banks under one brand by 2027. (Capital Brief)

• Advanced and AusAgritech team up to channel $10m+ in R&D funding to regional innovators. (Startup Daily)

• Akaysha Energy taps Macquarie Capital to explore partial or full sale. (AFR)

• Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group takeover speculation may curb Jefferies’ aggressive growth in Australia. (The Australian)

• Lynas Rare Earths teams with LS Eco Energy for $30m Vietnam rare earth metals facility. (Capital Brief)

• Aware Super–TelstraSuper $237b merger triggers redemptions for Western Asset Management, IFM Investors; merger effective April 30. (AFR)

• Orikan sale looms with private equity firms circling. (The Australian)

• Woodside Energy now runs the Beaumont New Ammonia facility in Texas following its acquisition of OCI Global. (Capital Brief)

• Pernod Ricard weighs deal for Jack Daniel’s maker Brown-Forman. (Bloomberg)

Capital Markets

• Reserve Bank of Australia warns oil shock may tighten policy and reduce wealth. (Capital Brief)

• Washington H. Soul Pattinson profit jumps 604%, dividend raised. (Capital Brief)

• Carbon Revolution enters administration as wheel demand falls, Geelong plant to continue operating. (AFR)

• LG Energy Solution and Westpac help raise USD2.8b in Asian debt deals. (Reuters)

• Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc. face legal risk after landmark verdict on addictive platforms. (Bloomberg)

• Weebit Nano readies $100m capital raise; final terms and lead managers pending. (AFR)

• L1 Group opens L1 Gold Fund IPO with $900m committed. (Capital Brief)

• Koala secures $20m in IPO ahead of ASX debut. (Startup Daily)

• Australian Energy Market Operator pushes Australia gas shortage forecast to 2029 (Bloomberg)

• Infratil sees CDC FY26 earnings at low end, with FY27 outlook improving. (Capital Brief)

• Vantage Point AM targets $10b from super funds to build Vietnam financial hub. (AFR)

• Fenix Resources Ltd. cuts some operations amid diesel shortages from Iran war impacts. (Bloomberg)

• Catapult Sports shares climb on record growth and strong FY26 outlook. (Capital Brief)

• Manny Stul and investors launch $144m fund for celebrity-backed consumer brands. (AFR)

• David Jones seeks to refinance $150m debt amid financial concerns. (The Australian)

• Apple Australia enlists PwC to fix leave miscalculations affecting staff pay and entitlements. (AFR)

• Bain Capital lands $430m loan for Perpetual Limited wealth unit buyout. (Bloomberg)

• Mallesons regains independence from King & Wood a day early, effective Monday. (Capital Brief)

• Lorna Jane lifts sales and profits with local support and wellness travel expansion despite global competition. (AFR)

• Nickel Industries halts operations at Hengjaya Mine after a fatal accident, shares fall 3.44%. (Capital Brief)

• Gap Inc. to open 50 China stores in 2026 after first breakeven quarter. (Bloomberg)

• Australian household wealth reached $18.84t in December 2025, boosted by income, superannuation, and property growth, says the Australian Bureau of Statistics. (Capital Brief)

• Queensland’s Taroom Trough oil push gains urgency, targeting Ampol refinery supply by 2028. (AFR)

• AI may reduce software costs, but trusted SaaS that manages data, enforces rules, and meets regulations will retain strong value. (Capital Brief)

• Soul Patts shifts to a more dynamic strategy, adjusting its long-term portfolio amid Middle East conflict uncertainty. (Capital Brief)

• Sydney and Melbourne airports tap offshore bond markets for faster deals amid volatility. (The Australian)

• Westpac starts moving 75,000 business customers from sub-brands to the main bank under its Unite tech overhaul. (Capital Brief)

• Blackstone invests USD250m in UAE tech platform amid Gulf uncertainty. (Reuters)

• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei visits Australia to strengthen AI ties and engage government leaders. (Capital Brief)

• Netflix hikes subscription prices for all plans, ad-supported up USD1. (Bloomberg)

• OECD warns Middle East conflict will lift Australia’s inflation, driven by fertiliser price spikes. (Capital Brief)

• Meta boosts El Paso data center investment to USD10b for AI infrastructure. (Bloomberg)

• Qantas boosts Europe flights via Singapore as Middle East conflict reshapes travel routes. (Capital Brief)

• Apple to let third-party AI assistants integrate with Siri in iOS 27. (Bloomberg)

• Shield AI raises USD2b, reaching USD12.7b valuation to expand defence AI capabilities. (Capital Brief)

• Tesla’s 2026 EV sales forecast cut to 1.69m vehicles as recovery slows. (Bloomberg)

• Musk plans 30% of SpaceX IPO for retail investors, rewriting the playbook. (Reuters)

• Elon Musk’s X restructures ahead of SpaceX IPO. (WSJ)

• Sheryl Sandberg’s Lean In sheds quarter of staff, will focus on manosphere fight. (WSJ)

• JPMorgan launches private credit fund with 7.5% quarterly redemptions, eyeing monthly liquidity. (Bloomberg)

• Pay.com.au says RBA reforms won’t hurt its IPO and may create opportunities. (Capital Brief)

• Germany, Australia team up on space security, laser weapons. (Bloomberg)

• Apple plans to open up Siri to rival AI assistants in iOS 27 update. (Bloomberg)

• Ares private credit fund posts steepest monthly loss on record. (Bloomberg)

• Wall Street bonus pool jumps to a record USD49.2b for 2025. (Bloomberg)

VC 

• Harvey AI raises USD200m from GIC and Sequoia Capital at USD11b valuation. (Capital Brief)

• Rumin8 secures $4.3m from NZ investors to expand methane-reducing cattle feed. (Startup Daily)

People moves

• AMP Limited names Adrian Ryan acting CFO ahead of CEO transition. (Capital Brief)

• Citi adds Thiago Ojea as senior metals and mining analyst in Sydney, joining from Brazil’s Apex Capital. (AFR)

• ACS CEO Ralston cuts executive roles in rapid organisational shakeup. (Startup Daily)

• Monash IVF Group names Birol Akdogan interim CFO. (Capital Brief)

• NAB cuts 170 Australian jobs while expanding roles offshore in India and Vietnam. (AFR)

• Nine Entertainment names Chris Halios-Lewis to board after radio asset sale. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler