☕️ Knife's edge

It's RBA rates day again

July 04, 2023

Good morning.

It’s the first Tuesday of the month, which means it is time for the econocrats at Martin Place to decide whether to raise the cost of borrowing money across the economy again.

The consensus among analysts is (narrowly) in favour of a 25bp hike, and the LOI Interest Rate Poll™️ is trending in the same direction, but you still have a few hours left to get your votes in for that.

ps. if this was forwarded to you, you can sign up for LOI at letterofintent.com.au

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MARKET MOVERS

*Stock data as of the market close. Commodities and crypto data in USD.

Market News: United Malt was the standout gainer after the former GrainCorp offshoot, which supplies ingredients to craft breweries and whisky distilleries, inked a deal to be sold to France’s Malteries Soufflet.

The stock closed at $4.78, about 5% below the $5 bid price, leaving a little bit of room for the M&A arbs to play with.

THE QUICK SYNC

  • The RBA is expected to to raise interest rates by 25bps, although economists say the decision is on a knife’s edge. (Investing.com)

  • China restricted exports of two key metals used in semiconductors in an escalation of its trade battle with the US. (Bloomberg)

  • EV stocks soared after strong quarterly production and delivery numbers from Tesla, Rivian and BYD Auto. (Yahoo Finance)

  • Apple has reportedly slashed production targets for the Vision Pro headset and will delay the introduction of a cheaper model. (Financial Times | TechCrunch)

TRADING FLOOR

M&A:

  • Malteries Soufflet's $1.5b bid for United Malt holds after lengthy due diligence. (AFR | The Australian)

  • KKR and Qantas are presenting as a powerful combo in the contest to buy TEG, but are yet to work out the finer details of their offer. (The Australian)

  • Cromwell will sell a 50% stake of its Italian logistics fund assets to Value Partners Group in a joint venture deal. (AFR)

  • Costa Group is set to call time on its ASX listing to recommend a takeover offer from Paine Schwartz Partners. (AFR | The Australian)

  • JF Lehman & Company is preparing to lodge an offer for Austal as early as next week. (AFR)

  • Keppel Infrastructure Trust ditched the sale of Ixom. (AFR)

  • Single Use Ain’t Sexy, a sustainable personal care brand, has been acquired by Buzz for an undisclosed sum. (SmartCompany)

Capital Markets:

  • QIC Infrastructure and Vector have closed a $1.6bn green loan. (AFR)

  • Redox’s ASX debut could possibly reopen the frozen IPO market. (AFR)

  • Mike Boorn Plener who was previously involved in a failed start-up investment scheme is trying to raise $20m for a fund called Catapult. (AFR)

  •  Bill Beament’s Develop Global is expected to raise $50m from equity investors to fund a bid for Essential Metals (AFR)

VC:

  • Nomad Atomics, a quantum sensor start-up, raises $2m in seed funding and a fresh $10m pre-series A round led by Blackbird. (AFR | StartupDaily)

  • Pet Circle retains its unicorn status after a $75m funding boost from Prysm Capital. (BNA)

  • Sherlok, a customer retention fintech, has raised $3.4m in a round led by VC Rampersand. (StartupDaily)

Others:

  • Australian Vintage hires E&P to run a strategic review. (AFR)

  • JPMorgan’s Duncan Mann has been hired by Miles Advisory Partners. (AFR | The Australian)

THE WATERCOOLER