☕️Jetfuel on the Fire

Good morning.

Qantas’ move to pass on higher fuel costs to its passengers this week may have infuriated its customers, but the ensuing spike in its share price suggests companies that respond decisively to roiling oil markets will be rewarded by their investors.

“I think we will start to see a lot of ASX companies come out and update market expectations,” Wilson Asset Management investment analyst Hailey Kim told Capital Brief. “It was pleasing to see that they are pulling the price lever,” said Kim, who holds the stock for Wilson clients.

Qantas’ shares which have fallen 14% in the days since the first major US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February, bounced more than 3% on Wednesday.

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Market movers

Shares in WA gold miner Ora Banda Mining surged almost 22% on Wednesday after the company announced a more than tenfold increase in the mineral resource estimate at its Round Dam deposit, from 125,000 ounces to 1.33 million ounces, lifting its total global resources by 57% to 3.3 million ounces.

The quick sync

• Former VC turned PR founder Jessy Wu wrote an 80,000-word corporate thriller skewering startup culture. The Aussie tech ecosystem is already wondering who inspired the steamy bits. (Capital Brief)

• Australia's crypto licensing regime is nearly done, but stablecoins remain sidelined. (Capital Brief)

• Australia's big four banks are tightening mortgage referrer programs and fraud controls as regulators and criminals alike close in. (Capital Brief)

• Anthropic is opening a Sydney office as Australia emerges as one of Claude's strongest markets globally. (Capital Brief)

• Matt Canavan became Nationals leader, going straight after Pauline Hanson, but Barnaby Joyce is already predicting internal ruptures ahead. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Blackstone eyes Real Pet Food Co sale amid shareholder price concerns. (AFR)

• Thinking Machines, led by Mira Murati, partners with Nvidia to deploy next-gen AI chips in a multiyear deal. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Legora raises $550m Series D to expand its AI legal platform in the US. (Capital Brief)

• GQG Partners FUM rises 4.3%, but shares drop amid $3.2b outflows. (Capital Brief)

• Macquarie Technology Group gets $200m NRFC funding to boost sovereign cybersecurity and digital infrastructure. (Capital Brief)

• Bendigo Bank misses client payments after tech outage, compounding post-scandal setbacks. (AFR)

• Cygnus Metals and Emperor Energy launch equity raises amid tough market. (AFR)

• Anthropic launches Sydney office to expand AI partnerships and hiring in Australia. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• Lynas Rare Earths shares jump after extending Japan rare earth supply deal to 2038. (Capital Brief)

• Blackstone sees AI as a pricing issue, not a threat, while weighing its Iress acquisition amid market uncertainty. (The Australian)

• High Court of Australia backs Katie Perry in trademark fight with Katy Perry. (Capital Brief)

• Takeovers Panel delays Humm Group board spill vote amid review of Credit Corp takeover bid. (Capital Brief)

• Estia Health readies IPO as Stonepeak moves on acquisition. (AFR)

• Philip Chronican urges Australia to strengthen supply chains and diversify exports to prepare for global shocks. (Capital Brief)

• Healthscope CEO and management face uncertainty as receivers pursue a not-for-profit conversion amid competing bids. (The Australian)

• Ora Banda Mining jumps after Round Dam resources grow 964%, lifting total global minerals by 57%. (Capital Brief)

• Westpac and UBS forecast a March RBA rate hike after deputy governor Hauser signals limited spare capacity and rising inflation risk. (Capital Brief)

• Longreach backs Melbourne fintech Co.Credit with $40m facility to grow its loan book cheaply. (AFR)

• Qantas hikes fares due to fuel costs, shares rise as investors applaud decisive move. (Capital Brief)

• G7 backs record oil reserve release to offset Middle East supply disruptions. (Capital Brief)

• ACHA ends Healthscope contracts, cutting three hospitals from its network to 28. (AFR)

• Meta shuts 150,000 accounts in global anti-scam operation, 21 arrests. (Capital Brief)

• Nvidia invests USD2b in Nebius to boost AI cloud and data centre expansion. (Capital Brief)

• Better Beer, backed by The Inspired Unemployed, is raising $10–15m to grow, with a potential $15m secondary sale for current shareholders. (AFR)

• US inflation held at 2.4% in February, in line with expectations, before Middle East tensions impact prices. (Capital Brief)

• Revolut secures full UK banking licence after five-year wait, set to begin phased current account rollout. (Capital Brief)

• South32 leads BHP’s West Musgrave copper-nickel asset sale amid rising copper demand and high project costs. (The Australian)

• IEA to release record 400m barrels of oil reserves amid US-Iran war disruptions. (Capital Brief)

• Bingo Industries CEO says refinancing is proactive, not an emergency; debt due 2028, no immediate sale planned. (AFR)

• JPMorgan cuts loan values, limits lending to private credit funds amid software sector stress. (Capital Brief)

• AustralianSuper seeks to let pension funds borrow and issue bonds, boosting liquidity and investment power. (AFR)

• Stablecoins remain on the sidelines in Australia as crypto licensing and regulatory clarity take shape. (Capital Brief)

• Big four banks clamp down on referral programs and boost fraud checks as mortgage risk rises. (Capital Brief)

• Amid volatility, Softbank-backed PayPay is pricing its Nasdaq IPO below its marketed range, at USD16 per share. (Bloomberg)

• A cyberattack paralysed medical technology maker Stryker's global operations, with a pro-Iranian group claiming it as retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on Iran. (Bloomberg)

• GOP senator says prosecutor in Jerome Powell probe has been changed. (Bloomberg)

• Goldman Sachs’ flood sees potential for ‘extreme’ rally in stocks. (Bloomberg)

VC 

• Melbourne startup mynd’s preventative mental health app helps employees build resilience, reaching 40% adoption where used. (Startup Daily)

People moves

• Matt Canavan becomes Nationals leader as Barnaby Joyce says One Nation will exploit Coalition divisions. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• CVC’s top dealmaker Boris Dangubic resigns to join AI data centre boom at Iren. (AFR)

• Jessy Wu launches debut novel Good Intentions about a startup scandal. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler