☕️ Iron wall

Martin Currie gets grim iron ore picture from China

Good morning.

Reece Birtles the seasoned chief investment officer at Martin Currie Australia returned from China with a hefty suitcase of concerns about the iron ore market's future, painting a grim picture for Australia.

He saw less of a property bubble and more of a brick wall, with overbuilt cities and excess steel capacity squeezing the iron ore market into a tight corner.

He told Capital Brief’s Jack Derwin that China’s excess stock is not fully reflected in prices yet, and with BHP, Rio Tinto and the banks driving the index near record highs, he cautioned a painful 90-95% fall for stocks not grounded in reality.

ASX as at market close. Commodities and crypto in USD.

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Market movers

Collins Foods shares surged 7.30% in on Tuesday, as Australians pinched by rising living costs swap fine dining for a bucket of fried chicken.

The KFC franchisee recorded a 10% lift in revenue for the year, proving that the lure of crispy chicken defies economic doom and gloom.

While same-store sales at KFC Australia dipped slightly, the overall results soared above the bleak forecasts that had previously sent Collins Foods shares down 25% this year.

The quick sync

  • The frosty sentiment towards the ASX among startups is thawing in the wake of the Guzman y Gomez IPO - just as the barriers to listing in the US get higher. (Capital Brief)

  • The Queensland government will force the public buyout of scandal-plagued Callide C coal-fired power station from its Chinese and European backers. (AFR)

  • Seven West axes three of its most senior executives in major shakeup. (AFR)

  • NGS Crypto, a Gold Coast crypto currency company has changed its name to Hiddup as receivers continue to look for $60m worth of superannuation money and while the corporate cop carries on an investigation. (The Australian)

  • Collins Foods pauses Taco Bell rollout amid Guzman y Gomez hype. (The Australian)

Trading floor

M&A

  • Bombora Investment Management is looking to Quay Fund Services to replace Evolution Trustees as its responsible entity while its growth fund, currently frozen, has a -11.6% return for the past year. (AFR)

  • SkyCity Entertainment Group is selling its 10% stake in Gaming Innovation Group to reduce debt. (Capital Brief)

  • AirTrunk's $15bn-plus auction enters round two, with binding bids due by August 27. (AFR)

  • Telstra is selling its Telstra Ventures investments to free up capital and cut costs, following its plan to save $350m and recent job cuts. (Capital Brief)

  • CSO Group and xAmplify are merging to create Australia's largest locally-owned cyber security and AI consultancy. (BNA)

  • The Energy & Minerals Group (EMG) has ended the agreement for Sev.en Global Investments to acquire its majority stake in Coronado Global Resources. (Capital Brief)

  • Labor delivers all-clear for $1b Rinehart-backed Senex gas project. (AFR)

Capital Markets

  • Petro Australis Energy raised $24m to prepare for a 2025 ASX IPO, focusing on its Cuban Pina oilfield. (AFR)

  • Coposit, a property payment platform, seeks to raise $10m through Ad Astra to fund growth. (AFR)

  • Bain Capital is restarting plans to list Virgin Australia, targeting a Christmas IPO. (The Australian)

  • National Group secures a $210m refinancing deal, paying out Gordon Brothers and facilitating a potential sale by Jefferies. (AFR)

VC

  • First Australians Capital secured $20m for its Catalytic Impact Funds' initial close, with investments from the Paul Ramsay Foundation and other trusts. (Startup Daily)

  • Sydney quantum startup Diraq raised an additional US$7m for its Series A2. (Startup Daily)

People moves

  • Fletcher Building's board is seeing swift changes as two directors move up their exit dates. (The Australian)

  • Predictive analytics platform Prophet has appointed former Meta exec Hamish Mogan as COO and VP of marketing science. (MrWeb)

☝️ Know about a deal or people move we don’t? Hit reply.

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The watercooler