☕️ IPO vacuum

Good morning.

While the US market braces for blockbuster exits via IPOs like Klarna and Chime, Australia’s pipeline is looking a bit dry.

As Capital Brief’s Jack Derwin notes, historically dominant sectors like materials have been hammered, and for the first time since 2010, no software companies listed last year.

Just three small caps are slated to debut in early 2025, and delistings and M&A keep shrinking the bourse.

The local recovery hinges on rate cuts, US momentum and a commodity rebound, but for now, the outlook isn’t great.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Boss Energy soared on Wednesday, spearheading a uranium rally on the ASX as Canada tariff threats shook the market.

The quick sync

• Revolut pushes closer to an Australian banking licence, aiming to disrupt a market still dominated by the big four banks. (Capital Brief)

• JPMorgan’s record profits soften the blow of shrinking Aussie fees with bigger bonuses for local bankers. (AFR)

• Trump’s policy reversals halt US$300b ($478b) in green funding, stalling major clean energy projects and casting doubt on America’s renewable future. (FT)

• Joe Aston’s Rampart wants to redefine Australia’s business media with insights and a bold bet on flexible, subscription-driven publishing. (Capital Brief)

• Trump threatens retaliation over Australia’s big tech tax, risking higher levies on expats and companies. (AFR)

Trading floor

M&A

• Trump to unveil a US$500b AI investment led by OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, starting with a Texas data center, while lifting AI regulations and boosting energy development. (Capital Brief)

  • Musk questions the financial viability of Trump’s $797bn Stargate AI project, which aims to invest US$500b over four years and create 100,000 jobs. (Capital Brief)

• Dexus is set to acquire a Powerco stake from the Australian Retirement Trust, shaking up the $2b energy distributor's ownership. (AFR)

• Real Pet Food Company is preparing for a $1b-plus sale, issuing proposals to investment bankers. (AFR)

• FTI Consulting prepares Star Entertainment's lenders for potential voluntary administration amid a $400m cash crunch. (AFR)

• Paladin Energy reaffirmed guidance as Langer Heinrich Mine hit record output and finalized a $1.27b Fission Uranium acquisition. (Capital Brief)

• White Bay and Hawkers merge as Social Drinks, launching February 1 with $1.5m funding and Judd Michael as CEO. (AFR)

• Rio Tinto offers $472m to Mongolia to settle Oyu Tolgoi tax dispute, eyeing resolution amid Glencore merger talk. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Cromwell Property Group's Australian portfolio lost $99m in value, contributing to a $115.5m annual devaluation as it cuts debt through asset sales. (Capital Brief)

• Adisyn kicks off a $7.5m capital raising after acquiring semiconductor firm 2D Generation, offering shares at 9.5¢ each. (AFR)

• Adam Gilmour backs an Australian version of Elon Musk's Government Efficiency Department, paralleling his aim to emulate Musk’s space and efficiency initiatives. (Capital Brief)

• Life360 and NextDC boosted ASX tech stocks, tracking US tech gains fueled by Trump’s AI investment and deregulatory agenda. (Capital Brief)

• Realm Investment House raised $100m for its Dominion Income Trust (DN1) cornerstone offering, leading the way for private credit funds going public. (AFR)

• US IPO market shows promise, but Australia's outlook is grim, with few listings and low optimism. (Capital Brief)

• Trump ends federal DEI offices and pushes for reduced DEI initiatives in corporations like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, amid a broader conservative backlash. (Capital Brief)

• Pathify raises $25m, securing a $180m valuation with a new investor joining its capital table. (AFR)

• Venture Global LNG trims IPO target to US$65b ($104b), after investors baulked at price. (Reuters)

• Woodside paused its US hydrogen and solar projects following Donald Trump’s election, focusing instead on expanding a gas plant in Louisiana. (The Australian)

• LinkedIn is being sued by Premium customers for sharing private messages to train AI models without consent, claiming the platform quietly updated its privacy policy and misled users. (Reuters)

VC

• Joe Aston's Rampart taps into the US-inspired trend of independent, creator-led publishing. (Capital Brief)

• Levur, an ethical oil startup from NSW, won $100k in KPMG’s Nature Positive Challenge for its environmental efforts. (Smart Company)

People moves

• SunCable appoints ex-Origin exec   as CEO after securing approvals for its AAPowerLink solar farm. (Capital Brief)

• Mighty Kingdom names Dylan Miklashek interim CEO and Duncan Gordon as new Chair. (Market Index)

• Emyria reshuffles leadership to prepare for growth in 2025, boosted by US policy changes. (BNA)

• Prince Harry and Tom Watson settle with Murdoch’s News Group over phone hacking, with the company issuing an apology and acknowledging unlawful practices. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler