☕️ Insider play

GYG facing big tests as insiders free to sell

January 22, 2025

Good morning.

Guzman y Gomez (GYG) is shaping up as the battleground of 2024.

Insiders will soon be able to sell $530 million worth of GYG shares post-escrow, testing the market’s appetite for a stock that has doubled since its IPO despite a towering 600x earnings multiple.

Sensing an opportunity ahead of February’s results, short sellers have doubled their positions in recent months, according to Capital Brief’s Jack Derwin. TDM Growth Partners, with $1.16 billion tied up, is holding firm but Barrenjoey’s next move could be a wildcard.

ASX as at market close. Commodities and crypto in USD.

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Market movers

Liontown shares surged on Tuesday despite a drop in lithium prices as the miner said spodumene production rose 215% and sales skyrocketed 651% in the December quarter.

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The quick sync

  • Trump’s deregulation agenda threatens global financial safeguards, escalating risks for Australia amid rising instability in credit, crypto and climate impacts. (Capital Brief)

  • Trump to unveil Stargate, a US$500 billion private sector AI infrastructure venture led by OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle. (CBS)

  • Endeavour’s split from Woolworths could cost $570m, surpassing initial estimates. (AFR)

  • Donald Trump’s meme coin launches to record-breaking hype but sparks fears of a crypto grift. (Capital Brief)

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Trading floor

M&A

  • Liontown triples lithium output at Kathleen Valley, advancing deals with LG, Tesla, and Ford amid price drops. (Capital Brief)

  • Charter Hall and Scape, backed by major investors, advance in the $3.5bn Aveo auction. (AFR)

  • Procuret enters administration, seeks sale or recapitalization. (The Australian)

  • Trump delays TikTok ban, proposes joint venture, and warns of tariffs on China over sale hurdles. (Capital Brief)

  • Arrow Energy to drill hundreds of wells in Queensland to boost gas supply under $100m contract. (The Australian)

  • StoreLocal seeks growth partner with Highbury Partners' help to expand its $300m self-storage portfolio. (AFR)

  • Guzman y Gomez’s market battle intensifies as insiders prepare to sell up to 25% of shares, with $2bn potentially hitting the market. (Capital Brief)

  • Star's Hong Kong partners cancel Queen's Wharf apartment sales due to cost overruns, amid Star's financial troubles. (The Australian)

Capital Markets

  • ASX 200 rises 0.66% after a mixed session, buoyed by sector gains and news on Trump’s tariffs. (Capital Brief)

  • Wesfarmers to wind down Catch, shifting fulfilment to Kmart to cut losses and boost e-commerce efficiency. (Capital Brief)

  • Liontown Resources stays profitable despite lithium price slump, earning $US20 per tonne in December. (AFR)

  • Citi keeps "buy" on Perpetual, citing AUM gains from a weak Aussie dollar despite rising expenses and sale uncertainty. (Capital Brief)

  • Santos delays $3bn Dorado project decision, leading to a 23% drop in Carnarvon Energy’s shares. (Reuters)

  • Australian dollar dips to 62.33 US cents as Trump mulls tariffs on Mexico and Canada. (Capital Brief)

  • HUB24 shares jump 15% after reporting record $5.5bn net inflows and an 8% rise in funds under administration. (HUB24)

  • Trump's meme coin surges, fueling debate on crypto regulation and risk. (Capital Brief)

  • Trump withdraws US from OECD tax pact, orders review of retaliatory measures against countries taxing US multinationals. (Capital Brief)

  • Woolworths and Coles stay top brands amid legal battles, while Commonwealth Bank reclaims the title of most valuable brand. (AFR)

  • Apple shares drop 4.6% as downgrades highlight weak iPhone sales, AI disappointment, and challenges in China. (Capital Brief)

VC

  • Stralis Aircraft partners with CQU to develop a hydrogen-electric propulsion system for aviation. (CSIRO)

  • SOUTHSTART unveils its 2025 program, featuring speakers on regenerative tech, ethical AI, and future funding (Startup Daily)

  • Four activists admit guilt over Woodside CEO protest; two others face conspiracy trial. (The Australian)

People moves

  • Concerns arise in Canberra over Angus Campbell's appointment as ambassador to Belgium, with political tensions surrounding the decision. (Capital Brief)

  • ASIC investigates ex-Lazarus broker Dylan Curtis for fraud involving fraudulent invoices and redirected payments. (AFR)

  • Adam Lai resigns as PwC Australia state managing partner after 18 years, moving to a new leadership role. (AFR)

  • Novonix CEO Chris Burns to step down as the company prepares for US graphite production and expansion. (Capital Brief)

  • Star Entertainment’s lenders hire restructuring lawyer Nikki Smythe as the casino group faces mounting financial risks. (AFR)

☝️ Know about a deal or people move we don’t? Hit reply.

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