☕️ Index play?

Good morning.

Firmus pitched hard on its non-deal roadshow. Reportedly a USD9.1 billion revenue pipeline, and USD14 billion projected revenue with USD12 billion EBITDA at the 2 gigawatt milestone, backed by Nvidia and an unnamed US hyperscaler rumoured to be Meta.

But as Capital Brief’s Hugo Mathers reports, the question fund managers are also coming back to is: will insiders who have already made a few times their money be free to sell on day one?

The company is not talking, but at least one existing investor told Mathers it wouldn't all be bad if escrow was light. “The less shares on escrow, the more that are freely tradable, and the higher weighting you get in the index,” the investor said. “Which means that besides the passive funds who are forced to buy it, funds who want to just have an ‘index weighted’ position also have to buy the stock.”

I guess we’ll see.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in buy-now-pay-later company Zip surged Friday after the company upgraded its full-year earnings guidance, with US transaction volumes and revenue rising 43% in the third quarter. UBS analyst Lucy Huang took the result as strengthening confidence in Zip's ability to manage credit risks despite an uncertain macro backdrop.

The quick sync

• Crypto industry says Treasury’s stablecoin rules will stifle the sector at birth. (Capital Brief)

• Iran war delivers a brutal March for all but one Australian fund manager. (Capital Brief)

• Economists warn markets are too confident about an RBA May rate rise as Iran war clouds the outlook. (Capital Brief)

• Australia must build more diesel storage now or risk being caught short in the next crisis, writes Lurion de Mello. (Capital Brief)

• Canva's AI reboot puts it on a collision course with OpenAI and Anthropic as it races toward a 2027 IPO. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• With war, an energy crisis and a chaotic US president derailing Labor's agenda, Albanese faces a rough road to the May budget. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Axight buys a minority stake in La Trobe Financial, valuing it at $3b. (Capital Brief)

• Anchorage Capital to acquire HMA International for $170m. (AFR)

• CC Capital’s acquisition of Insignia fuels speculation it may pursue a future takeover of AMP. (The Australian)

• ACCC begins Phase 2 review of IAG’s $1.4b RAC Insurance takeover bid. (Capital Brief)

• Ramsay Health Care may divest its UK arm to invest in stronger growth opportunities in Australia and New Zealand. (The Australian)

• Chinese state-linked firm among bidders for $1.13b Hobart stadium project. (AFR)

• Stanmore Coal may need a major equity raising to fund its potential acquisition of Anglo American’s Queensland coal assets. (The Australian)

• Amplitude Energy signs four-year gas supply deal with AGL. (Capital Brief)

• QXO to buy commercial roofing firm TopBuild for USD17b. (Reuters)

Capital Markets

• Canva plans a 2027 IPO after completing its shift to an AI-driven business model. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• Anthropic warns of AI cyber threats but omits details on its new Mythos model. (Capital Brief)

• Dexus admits document was confidential but disputes forced share sale in Melbourne Airport case. (AFR)

• Viva Energy refinery runs below capacity after fire, cutting fuel output. (Capital Brief)

• GIC-backed Iglu seeks strategic investor partner in student housing. (AFR)

• Paladin lifts FY26 output guidance, boosting shares. (Capital Brief)

• AI chipmaker Cerebras files for U.S. IPO again amid strong AI market demand. (Reuters)

• Zip posts record Q3 earnings, sending shares higher. (Capital Brief)

• Private sector and super funds question Australia’s $15b defence investment plan. (AFR)

• Netflix shares fall on weak forecast and Reed Hastings’ departure. (Capital Brief)

• Australia’s fuel security is weakened by a lack of diesel storage. (Capital Brief)

• Monash IVF faces pressure as $350m private equity bid deadline nears. (AFR)

• NRW’s Fredon secures $160m in infrastructure and electrical contracts. (Capital Brief)

• Australia and UK sign deal to boost super and pension fund investments. (Capital Brief)

• Meridian Energy Q3 inflows fall below average despite strong demand growth. (Capital Brief)

• Boresight files $8m IPO to expand drone manufacturing and military tech. (Capital Brief)

• Future Fund spent $300k investigating allegations against senior executives. (AFR)

• ATO to apply backdated CGT rules mainly over a four-year review period for foreign investors. (Capital Brief)

• Euroz prepares equity raising for Babylon Pump & Power reverse listing. (AFR)

• Economists question market expectations of a May rate hike amid uncertainty. (Capital Brief)

• Macquarie relocates customer service jobs back to Australia to support banking growth. (AFR)

• Australian fuel spending falls for two weeks amid tax cuts and fare subsidies. (Capital Brief)

• Big Tech rebound drives S&P 500 to record highs. (Bloomberg)

• Tabcorp wins approval for live betting devices in Victorian venues. (AFR)

• NRF opens $1b zero-interest loan program to support businesses amid Middle East crisis. (Capital Brief)

• AI adoption rises in Australia as NAB urges broader business uptake. (Capital Brief)

• Only one Australian equity fund gained in March amid conflict-driven market losses. (Capital Brief)

• Disney+ launches ad-supported tier and raises ad-free prices to attract customers. (AFR)

• Firmus IPO faces scrutiny over potential lack of investor lock-up rules. (Capital Brief)

• Industry warns bank-style rules could stifle stablecoin sector growth. (Capital Brief)

• Google in talks with Marvell to build new AI chips. (The Information)

• Crypto hack worth USD290m triggers DeFi contagion shock. (Bloomberg)

VC 

• Deep tech startup Atomic Tessellator to develop rare earth alternatives using AI and quantum tech. (AFR)

• Renewable Metals to build first recycling plant after $12m raise. (AFR)

People moves

• Kelly+Partners CEO hosts Buffett-style shareholder meet-up, raising questions over strategy. (AFR)

• Review finds Humm director Andrew Abercrombie share purchases made under unacceptable circumstances. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler