☕️ Gutted

Good morning.

It’s about that time where the world begins to really hone in on the story that is going to define 2024 and beyond: the US presidential election.

Who ends up in the White House will of course have deep and wide-ranging consequences for us all, from Sydney to Senegal.

Overnight, Republican frontrunner Trump began to give a flavour of what to expect if he wins, promising to gut the Inflation Reduction Act and “maximise fossil fuel production”.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Appen was once a high-flying tech stock of the ASX. Well, those days appear long gone.

Coming out of a trading halt on Thursday, the share price fell plummeted as the data services provider goes out to raise another $30m.

Ostensibly the extra capital is to continue an AI-powered turnaround. But six months into it, the share price continues to fall. And now it’s considering selling parts or all of the business.

Together with Stake | Invest on Wall St and the ASX

The quick sync

• Australia could produce ‘generational’ semiconductor companies if it acts now, industry warns. (Capital Brief)

• After hitting a pedestrian in 2020 Cruise, the driverless car unit of General Motors, will attempt to roll out its technology again, this time one city at a time. (WSJ)

• The costs of war have forced the Israeli government to turn to debt markets.(Bloomberg)

• Investors have recalibrated their expectations as the big banks go ‘ex-growth’. (Capital Brief)

• WHO has asked China for data on rising ‘undiagnosed pneumonia’ cases in the country’s children’s hospitals. (Financial Times)

Trading floor

M&A

• Origin Energy's takeover saga involving Brookfield, EIG, and AustralianSuper adds a national interest dimension to the usual commercial factors. (AFR | SMH)

  • Brookfield and EIG present an alternative offer for Origin Energy, a clever move likely to face rejection by the target's board. (The Australian)

  • Matthew Grounds was involved in structuring Brookfield and EIG's revised proposal. (The Australian)

  • Origin Energy delays the shareholder vote on a $16bn buyout proposal by Brookfield and EIG following the receipt of a new offer from the suitors. (The Australian)

• Takeovers Panel flags concerns in ARN Media's Southern Cross takeover. (Capital Brief)

• Nick Scali CEO Anthony Scali sells $50m stake, underwritten by UBS. (AFR)

• Evolt 360 expands globally with a supplier agreement with GoodLife Fitness Canada. (BNA)

• ACCC warns Treasury's merger proposal may increase deal costs and time. (AFR)

• Sports Entertainment Group addresses finances with NZ business sale. (SMH)

• TPG is set to expand its 5G coverage after acquiring two licenses in the 3.7 GHz spectrum band. (Capital Brief)

• Kidder Williams founder acquires stake in Clean Seas Seafood, sparking acquisition speculation. (The Australian)

CAPITAL MARKETS

• KEE Group, one of Western Australia’s largest players in road maintenance, has Azure Capital looking for capital partners. (AFR)

• US private equity firm Platinum Equity is drumming up interest in Australia for its $US12 billion ($18 billion) buyout fund. (AFR)

• Oil prices dropped nearly 1% as major producers, including OPEC+, delayed a meeting on further production cuts. (Capital Brief)

• AMP shares surged after the company agreed to pay a $100m settlement in class action over exit payments. (BNA)

VC

• SuperAPI, a start-up co-founded by ex-Xero employees, raises a $1m seed round for superannuation tech solutions. (AFR)

• Elliephant raises $560k in pre-seed funding with support from LaunchVic's Alice Anderson Fund for its corporate gifting platform. (Startup Daily)

• Tractor Ventures allocates $50m in funding to 130 tech-enabled businesses, with an average loan size of $380k. (Smart Company)

People moves

• Macquarie Group's head of investment strategy, Jason Todd, departs amid layoffs in the wealth management division. (AFR)

• Former BoQ CEO George Frazis is advising on debt capital markets. (AFR)

Insight of the week by Stake

Uranium surge

Due to increasing demand for clean energy sources and problems across its supply chain, uranium prices are reaching 15-year highs. Prices had dropped sharply as demand fell following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. But as countries around the globe seek an alternative for natural gas (which skyrocketed in price when conflict erupted in Ukraine and when Niger, one of the world’s top producers, went through a military coup), uranium’s price has exploded, with some analysts claiming it could still rise +150% by 2025.

A word of warning, though: as solar energy continues to become cheaper and the development and deployment of thorium-fuelled nuclear reactors advances, uranium prices could well go back into the doldrums again over the long term.

This is not financial advice.

The watercooler