☕️Grizzly Ground

Good morning.

Even before Trump dropped his 50% additional tariff bomb on China, the S&P 500 was flirting with bear territory until a false dawn on the tariff front fuelled a brief but powerful midmorning rally Monday, pushing the index up 7% in just 30 minutes. Trump’s announcement pushed the benchmark back to its earlier levels, as investors dashed back to safe havens.

Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge,’ the Volatility Index (VIX) whipsawed in keeping with the wider market on Monday, signalling that volatility is set to remain high for months.

We can look to the VIX for signals as much as we like, but at the end of the day when the globe’s leading benchmark is trading like a meme coin, a reckoning one way or another is around the corner.

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Market movers

On a $97 billion bloodbath day for the ASX, investment manager Challenger was one of just five winners, rising over 8% after it said TAL Dai-ichi Life will buy a 15.1% stake at a 53% premium.

The quick sync

• A false social media rumour about a tariff pause might have briefly sent US stocks surging before a White House denial reversed the gains. (FT)(CNN)

• Ashurst’s advisory push signals a permanent shift in how law firms tackle risk, compliance and client demand beyond the courtroom. (Capital Brief)

• Australia risks squandering a billion-dollar AI edge as new US chip rules hand it a rare regional advantage, but government inaction leaves rivals surging ahead. (Capital Brief)

• Scandals won’t sink ANZ, but its real test starts now under fresh leadership. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Abacus Storage King gets $1.9b bid from Ki Corp and Public Storage. (Capital Brief)

• CoStar’s $2.8b Domain acquisition at risk as market downturn spooks investors. (The Australian)

• Woodside sells 40% of Louisiana LNG project to Stonepeak for $5.7b (Capital Brief)

• Peter Warren’s 5% stake sold at a steep discount, fueling takeover speculation amid weak market conditions. (The Australian)

• Star Entertainment accepts $300m buyout from Bally’s amid financial turmoil. (Capital Brief)

Capital Markets

• Delays to streaming quotas cost the Australian film industry $1b and jobs. (Capital Brief)

• Nuix flags slower deal growth amid global uncertainty but expects strong cash flow. (Capital Brief)

• Investors want review of ASX waiver on James Hardie’s $14b Azek merger. (AFR)

• Chalmers says Australia well-placed despite Trump tariffs; Treasury sees minor GDP, inflation impact. (Capital Brief)

• Telix says US tariffs won’t impact its business or supply chain. (Capital Brief)

• Endeavour Group’s interim CEO Ari Mervis is cutting costs, including staff, to address falling share prices and regain investor confidence amid a portfolio review. (AFR)

• BOQ adjusts rate outlook due to global market turmoil from Trump’s tariffs. (Capital Brief)

• European stocks drop sharply as US tariffs spark global selloff and recession fears. (Capital Brief)

• The $1.9b sale of Storage King questions the 2023 demerger's success, reducing Abacus’s fees and revealing performance concerns, particularly from major shareholder Nathan Kirsh. (The Australian)

• JP Morgan’s Dimon warns tariffs raise recession risk, urges quick resolution. (Capital Brief)

• Trump threatens extra 50% China tariff as markets plunge. (Capital Brief)

• US Treasuries weaken as tariff risks increase, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs forecasting rate cuts amid recession concerns. (Capital Brief)

• Clive Palmer pouring up to $50m into a scattergun election ad blitz that may not win seats but is reshaping the campaign battleground. (AFR)

• The next RBA interest rate cut in May might be as big as 50 basis points, so the Australian dollar is reflecting that, says Chalmers. (AFR)

• MinRes bonds slide and debt fears mount as lithium pain and tariff shocks rattle the miner’s balance sheet. (AFR)

• Virgin lines up power players from Qatar and Macquarie as it eyes a June market comeback and pitches a leaner, more profitable airline. (AFR)

• Trump’s trade war is blowing up markets and shaking even his richest backers, as Wall Street braces for more damage. (Capital Brief)

VC

• Sports stars Sam Kerr, Pat Cummins, and Dylan Alcott are among 100 investors backing Athletic Ventures’ $25m tech VC fund, co-founded by Matt de Boer and Matthew Dellavedova. (AFR)

People moves

• IGO CFO Kathleen Bozanic will retire in December to pursue non-executive roles, with a search underway for her replacement. (Capital Brief)

• Former CBA business banking leaders Mario Saia and Andrew Hazell have joined HTL Group to launch a new debt advisory division. (AFR)

• Bain Capital hires distressed debt expert Rahim Chunara from Brookfield. (AFR)

• Barclays is expanding its oversight of Barrenjoey, appointing Asia Pacific head Jaideep Khanna as an alternate director to strengthen regional ties. (AFR)

The watercooler