☕️ Gordon’s move

Good morning.

Bruce Gordon is circling tighter around Nine, with Capital Brief’s John Buckley and Jack Derwin reporting his regional broadcaster WIN has progressed talks to offload its northern NSW TV licence to Network 10.

If finalised, the sale would clear the way for Gordon to convert his Macquarie-held equity swaps into direct shares, significantly boosting his voting power and strengthening his case for greater board influence.

Meanwhile, Nine’s “Nine2028” restructure under interim CEO Matt Stanton continues while activist investor John Wylie quietly builds a position. His exact play remains unknown, but with Nine’s shares lagging and assets undervalued, the window for a bigger move is wide open.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Domino’s shares skyrocketed on Friday after it announced plans to shut 205 loss-making stores—mostly in Japan. Newly appointed CEO Mark van Dyck is betting on a leaner, more profitable future, squeezing short sellers along the way.

The quick sync

• As corporate Australia races to adopt AI, a storm of lawsuits is brewing—expect clashes over tech failures, AI hype, and who’s to blame when things go wrong. (Capital Brief)

• Archer Materials is chasing a bold quantum future, but after staff turmoil and its CEO’s abrupt exit, the company’s grand vision hangs in the balance. (Capital Brief)

• Trump loyalist Kash Patel, poised to lead the FBI, is under fire for holding up to US$5m in stock linked to Chinese retailer Shein, which is accused of using forced labour. (FT)

• Morgan Stanley’s dominance in M&A advisory is fading as JPMorgan and boutique firm Evercore outpace it in Wall Street’s dealmaking game. (FT)

• Apple's revamped iPhone SE kicks off a critical year for its smartphone lineup, as it battles AI setbacks, regulatory challenges and intensifying competition in China. (Bloomberg)

Trading floor

M&A

• KKR considers selling Arnott’s Asian business, seeks UBS advice. (AFR)

• Morrison joins bidders for Zenith Energy’s $2B+ stake sale. (AFR)

• Elliott Investment Management has taken a stake in BP, pushing for changes as investors grow frustrated with its underperformance. (Capital Brief)

• FIRB delays derail Lightsource BP’s $813M solar farm sale; new buyers sought. (AFR)

• Blackstone and rivals, including KKR, are exploring a potential buyout of Dexus amid office market downturn. (The Australian)

• Hong Kong investors offer to take over Star’s $1.6B Queen’s Wharf project. (AFR)

• Ainsworth Gaming Technology has resumed takeover discussions with its largest shareholder, Austria’s Novomatic. (AFR)

• Elon Musk denies interest in buying TikTok. (Bloomberg)

• Real Pet Food Company is preparing for a $1B-plus sale, with Goldman Sachs likely to be appointed as adviser. (The Australian)

• Japan’s Nippon Steel to invest in, not buy, US Steel. (Bloomberg)

• Thames Water’s chaotic rescue effort is in doubt as Covalis warns of a flawed sale process, absent leadership and a looming cash crisis. (Bloomberg)

• A year-long FIRB deadlock is pushing an US$800m Chinese solar deal to the brink. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Generation Development to raise $288M for Evidentia buyout at $4.15 per share. (AFR)

• China’s consumer inflation rose due to the Lunar New Year, but factory deflation persists, highlighting ongoing economic challenges. (Capital Brief)

• Trump halts US aid to South Africa amid diplomatic row. (Bloomberg)

• Trump aims to eliminate tax breaks for billionaire sports team owners, but it’s unclear if Congress will support the move. (Bloomberg)

• Canada looks to EU trade ties amid U.S. tariff threats. (Reuters)

• Porsche struggles as sales drop and US tariffs loom. (Bloomberg)

• Two-thirds of renting Australian retirees live in poverty due to rising rents and declining home ownership (Capital Brief)

• The UK’s push for Apple to weaken cloud encryption alarms privacy advocates and US officials, citing global security risks. (Bloomberg)

• New Zealand is relaxing visa rules to attract foreign investors and boost economic growth. (Reuters)

• Morgan Stanley has lost its position as Goldman Sachs’ top rival in dealmaking, with JPMorgan and Evercore generating higher financial advisory fees in 2024. (FT)

• Small-cap gold miners, led by Pantoro, launch non-deal roadshows (NDRs) to attract investor interest amid rising gold prices. (AFR)

• Regis Resources hires Greenhill for $2B Ravenswood gold mine bid. (The Australian)

• Pembroke secures $875M loan to expand Queensland coal mine. (AFR)

• Corporate Australia's AI adoption is expected to trigger more litigation in 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Middle East markets rebound as investors bet on a new era of stability, but Donald Trump's Gaza proposal threatens to upend fragile gains. (Reuters)

• Toorak’s Coonac estate smashes Australia’s house price record with a $150m sale, outpacing Sydney’s trophy homes in a landmark deal. (AFR)

VC

• Rosterfy secures $8.5M to enhance its volunteer management software, including handling Superbowl volunteers. (Capital Brief)

• Ilya Sutskever’s AI startup Safe Superintelligence (SSI) is in talks to raise funding at a US$20B valuation. (Reuters)

• Former Westpac CEO Brian Hartzer and the Gandel family are backing UpCover now valued at $45M. (AFR)

• Anduril, the AI defence startup backed by Peter Thiel, is set for a major cash injection that could push its valuation to US$28b—just months after its last funding round. (Reuters)

People moves

• Meta will lay off thousands of employees starting Monday, targeting the lowest-performing 5% as it shifts focus to AI. (Capital Brief)

• IFM Investors is facing backlash in Spain as it pushes for greater influence on the board of Naturgy. (AFR)

• Greensill creditors seek to disqualify judge in $7B IAG case. (AFR)

• Ex-Star execs on trial for money-laundering breaches; ASIC targets 11 individuals. (The Australian)

• Italian billionaires were duped by an AI deepfake of the defence minister, with one victim wiring €1m in a high-stakes hostage scam. (Bloomberg)(FT)

• Trump's new CFPB boss shuts down oversight, slashes funding, and hands Elon Musk's team the keys—critics call it a regulatory coup. (Reuters)(NYT)(WSJ)(Bloomberg)

• Donald Trump’s early 53% approval masks growing worries over inflation and trade tariffs, with even Republicans divided, a CBS poll shows. (Bloomberg)

• Casino tycoon Steve Wynn pushes the US Supreme Court to rethink press protections, aiming to weaken the defamation shield for journalists. (Reuters)

• Ex-Goldman Sachs bankers are taking over Australia’s biggest banks, wielding elite networks and Wall Street-honed skills to shape the industry’s future. (AFR)

• Simon Rothery has lasted 27 years at Goldman Sachs by staying in favour with Wall Street, sidestepping rivals and knowing where the money is. (AFR)

The watercooler