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☕️ M&A fever
Trump sparks $6 trillion-plus M&A forecast for 2025
Good morning.
Donald Trump’s touted pro-business return is firing up M&A expectations, with dealmakers reportedly eyeing a US$4 trillion-plus ($6 trillion-plus) spree in 2025. Global volumes hit US$3.45 trillion this year, up 15%, driven by private equity buyouts (up 35%) and tech deals (up 20% to US$534 billion).
So recharge over the holidays, because deal teams are bracing for a busy year, betting deregulation, tax cuts and softer antitrust enforcement under new FTC head Andrew Ferguson will keep us all busy.
ASX as at market close. Commodities and crypto in USD.
🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD
Market movers
Deep Yellow shares tanked Thursday after pushing its Tumas investment decision to March. But the delay, pinned on late costings and quotes, hasn’t budged the 2026 production timeline—at least for now.
The quick sync
Investor uncertainty looms as the Coalition’s nuclear policy fuels delays in renewable energy projects, raising fears of capital shifting overseas. (Capital Brief)
News Corp and DAZN are poised to announce a game-changing Foxtel deal next week, reshaping Australia's media landscape. (Capital Brief)
Ethereum had lagged Bitcoin, but fund managers are betting on ETFs and ICOs to fuel a strong 2025 comeback. (Capital Brief)
ANZ faces investor fury with its first pay strike since the Royal Commission as outgoing CEO Shayne Elliott sacrifices $3.2m in bonuses amid a bond trading scandal and governance outcry. (Capital Brief)(AFR)
Westpac’s new CEO, Anthony Miller, swaps the boardroom for suburban pubs as he tackles streamlining and reviving the bank in a cutthroat market. (AFR)
Trading floor
M&A
UBS and Goldman Sachs dominate M&A advisory in Australia, expecting more activity in 2025. (The Australian)
Smorgon family forces Chinese partners into insolvency, triggering gold mine stake sale. (AFR)
News Corp and DAZN near a deal on Foxtel, poised to reshape Australian media. (Capital Brief)
Foxconn disrupts Nissan-Honda merger talks with stake acquisition proposal. (Bloomberg)
Woodside Energy will swap Australian operating assets with Chevron to streamline its LNG portfolio. (Capital Brief)
Humanforce buys LiveHire for $17.2m, boosting HR software and global plans. (AFR)
Champion Iron has partnered with Nippon Steel and Sojitz to jointly develop its Kamistiatusset iron ore mine in Canada. (Capital Brief)
Aveo advances in the auction process after being chosen by the NSW government to develop the Manly Health and Wellbeing site. (AFR)
Arena REIT maintains its full-year distribution guidance despite recent acquisitions. (Capital Brief)
Sigma and Chemist Warehouse merger clears key hurdle, set for February completion. (AFR)
Paladin Energy gains approval for Fission Uranium acquisition, secures TSX listing. (Capital Brief)
Capital Markets
Block trades led 2024 equity markets, with Citi and Goldman Sachs driving major deals. (The Australian)
JPMorgan tops 2024 ECM rankings after a strong second half. (AFR)
Morningstar remains optimistic about CSL and Cochlear despite concerns over US health policy changes. (Capital Brief)
Hindenburg predicts Sezzle's collapse over credit losses and insider profit-taking. (Capital Brief)
Booze and tobacco tax revenue drops by $12.5bn due to rising contraband. (AFR)
Perpetual and former advisor Elias in settlement talks after legal dispute. (Capital Brief)
Genesis Capital raises $350m for healthcare deals after Pacific Smiles takeover. (AFR)
AGL Energy has been fined $25m by the Federal Court for failing to promptly notify and refund Centrepay customers. (Capital Brief)
Transurban may face significant financial penalties following a Supreme Court of Victoria ruling related to a legal dispute with ConnectEast. (Capital Brief)
Angeleno invests $20m in Adelaide energy firm AZZO for US growth. (AFR)
CEFC invests $1.92bn in clean energy "superhighway," its largest investment. (BNA)
VC
National Reconstruction Fund leads $50m raise for Myriota, pledging 100 new jobs. (Startup Daily)
NSW government's decision to move Sydney Startup Hub criticized for missing the key factors behind its success. (Startup Daily)
People moves
Amazon workers strike for benefits and recognition as employees during the holiday rush. (Capital Brief)
Robin Khuda's finance lawyer Bryan Paisley returns to Baker McKenzie. (AFR)
ANU alumni and staff call on chancellor Julie Bishop to stand down vice chancellor Genevieve Bell amid controversy over her Intel ties, governance concerns and financial transparency at the university. (AFR)
☝️ Know about a deal or people move we don’t? Hit reply.