☕️Firmus frenzy

Good morning.

Firmus co-founder Oliver Curtis’ well-documented criminal backstory is the most obvious question mark hanging over a company that has already raised vast sums of money, and recently closed a $14 billion Blackstone-led debt facility, as it races towards a blockbuster IPO on the ASX.

While some big name fund managers, including Ellerston Capital and Regal Funds Management, have jostled for a spot on the fledgling company’s cap table, others have opted out, citing diminishing sustainability claims, competition for capital with fellow ASX hopeful Sharon AI, and the reputation that precedes Curtis.

In a 2,000 word deep-dive, Capital Brief spoke to 10 institutional fund managers about Firmus as it finalises plans for another major equity raising — its last before a planned IPO.

What emerged from those conversations was a split in opinion usually reserved for a battleground stock on the ASX, not a company that is yet to even list.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in shipbuilder Austal soared Monday, rebounding from Friday’s 23% slump after the company cut earnings guidance over an overstated US Navy contract.

The quick sync

• Trade minister Don Farrell says progress has been made and he is confident Australia and the EU will reach a free trade agreement. (Capital Brief)

• Fintech insiders say Treasury’s 50% cut to its CDR team has been noticed but point to new leadership and an impending 2024 reset. (Capital Brief)

• Australia’s stalled productivity, weak investment and complex regulation will leave the economy falling behind without urgent reform, writes David Larocca. (Capital Brief)

• Angus Taylor channels John Howard on free markets and borders, but internal Liberal tensions over policy loom before the next election. (Capital Brief)

• Matt Comyn says intensifying competition is pushing rival banks towards unsustainable growth that risks margins, asset quality and regulatory scrutiny. (Capital Brief)

• BlueScope calls an inflection point as profit jumps to $391m and dividends rise, with takeover bids still in play. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Qube to be acquired for $11.7b by Macquarie-led consortium; shareholders offered $5.20 each. (Capital Brief)

• Generation Development Group weighs takeover of Ironbark Asset Management. (AFR)

• Morgan Stanley Infra hires Rothschild for ~$1b sale of StraitNZ. (AFR)

• Genki Global buys Sushi Sushi, backing expansion in Australia and overseas. (Capital Brief)

• L1 Capital seeks 19.9% stake in tin explorer Elementos. (AFR)

• KKR-owned John Laing buys 49.9% stake in Melbourne Convention Centre. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• BlueScope Steel doubles profit to $391m, raises dividend, and expects stronger cash flows ahead. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• A2 Milk profit up 9.4% on Pokeno sales; beats forecasts and raises dividend. (Capital Brief)

• Santana Minerals launches $120m capital raising on stronger gold prices. (AFR)

• Ansell FY sales up 0.7%, EBIT up 15%, dividend rises 20% despite market challenges. (Capital Brief)

• JB Hi-Fi HY profit up 7%, revenue rises 7.3%, dividend up 24% on strong electronics sales. (Capital Brief)

• Treasury Wine Estates HY loss $649m, dividend cut, EBIT down 40% on shipment restrictions. (Capital Brief)

• Affinda raises $25m, valuation jumps to $220m on backing from Paul Little and other investors. (AFR)

• Bendigo & Adelaide Bank HY profit $256m beats forecasts; lending stalled, faces AML/CTF compliance costs. (Capital Brief)

• Genesis and Aeris shares rise on M&A deals; Genesis’ $639m bid wins stronger support. (The Australian)

• GPT Group FY profit $981m on $309m portfolio uplift; property income up 6.3%, distributions steady. (Capital Brief)

• EV strategy reversal costs global car industry $65b as firms reset plans. (AFR)

• Aurizon HY profit $235m beats forecasts; EBITDA up 9%, dividend raised. (Capital Brief)

• Coles eyed regulator over Woolworths’ aggressive promotions. (AFR)

• Stockland HY profit up 19.3% to $292m, misses forecasts; dividend rises to 9c. (Capital Brief)

• ACL’s weak results and falling volumes signal potential trouble for Healius. (The Australian)

• oOh!media FY profit down 54% to $16.9m on NZ impairment; dividend rises to 6.25c. (Capital Brief)

• Kapstream targets $300m via ASX-listed trust as alternative to bank hybrids. (AFR)

• Abacus Storage King HY profit up 4% to $71.1m; dividend steady, FY26 guidance maintained. (Capital Brief)

• Transgrid wants consumers to cover $1.1b of $1.5b transmission cost blowout. (AFR)

• New Hope January-quarter EBITDA $107m; coal sales and production rise, H1 beats forecasts. (Capital Brief)

• EQT lines up banks for potential NZ$2.5B Metlifecare IPO. (AFR)

• CBA CEO Comyn cautions rivals on aggressive growth risking margins and asset quality. (Capital Brief)

• Mute mishap on Australian Clinical Labs call exposes analyst’s insult about rivals. (AFR)

• PEXA to take $26m impairments as it exits Digital Solutions businesses. (Capital Brief)

• Everything you thought about the US labour market is wrong. (FT)

• Fund managers take most bearish stance on dollar for a decade. (FT)

VC 

• Techstars Sydney closes as NSW government ends funding, hitting local startups. (Startup Daily)

People moves

• Keyview Financial Group has hired Denison Partners to find a growth partner. (AFR)

• Stephen Donaghue, KC, joins Victorian Court of Appeal after nine years as solicitor-general. (AFR)

• KPMG partner fined over using AI to pass AI test. (FT)

• OpenAI hires OpenClaw founder Peter Steinberger. (FT)

• Companies are replacing CEOs in record numbers—and they’re getting younger. (WSJ)

The watercooler