☕️ HSBC premium?

Good morning.

HSBC’s Australian retail bank is in play, but Capital Brief’s Andrew Cornell is warning us not to expect a premium.

It’s a clean, high-net-worth mortgage book—$32 billion in loans, $18.5 billion in deposits—but no sticky customers, no deep franchise.

Cornell notes speculation pointing at NAB, with a back-of-the-envelope price just north of $1 billion, or under 10% of deposits—less than ANZ’s Suncorp deal.

Bendigo is speculated to be in the mix. But no one’s overbidding for a run-off book. The upside is that ACCC hurdles look minimal, and NAB’s Citi integration shows it can handle this.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Audinate shares plunged Tuesday after Morgan Stanley slashed its price target, citing weak near-term catalysts and low visibility ahead of earnings.

The quick sync

• Defunct Altus Renewables is fighting Mitsui’s $21m claim over missed shipments, saying the trading giant never followed the rules or minimised its losses. (Capital Brief)

• Aussie VCs poured $4b into startups last year, but with fundraising still tough, 2025 may expose which firms can survive—and which will fade. (Capital Brief)

• British pension giant Nest is set to become IFM Investors' first overseas shareholder, acquiring a 10% stake and committing £5 billion over five years. (AFR)

• After years of financing roadblocks, Adani is betting on a $332m debt deal to keep its Abbot Point coal terminal afloat— testing whether banks are warming to fossil fuels again. (AFR)

• Citi is doubling down on hybrid work, sticking to a three-day office minimum while rivals like JPMorgan and Barclays push for full-time in-office mandates. (FT)

Trading floor

M&A

• Xref shareholders rejected Seek’s acquisition; both companies will pursue independent growth plans. (Capital Brief)

• Pemba Capital acquires 50% stake in cybersecurity firm ctrl:cyber. (AFR)

• Fortescue acquires majority stake in Red Hawk Mining for $254M. (Capital Brief)

• Oceania Glass has entered administration, with Grant Thornton managing operations and exploring a quick sale. (Grant Thornton)

• Greenlit Brands has become profitable and debt-free, setting the stage for a possible sale or listing. (The Australian)

• Nest commits £5B to IFM Investors, boosting UK pension fund involvement in private markets. (FT)

• KKR increased its bid for Fuji Soft, surpassing Bain Capital’s offer in a US$4.3B contest for the company. (Bloomberg)

• TA Associates is seeking new deals in Australia, with Escala Partners and GBST potential targets. (The Australian)

Capital Markets

• Palantir’s stock soars as Trump’s government revamp promises a windfall, with CEO Alex Karp embracing disruption—even if “some people will get their heads cut off.” (FT)

• Apollo’s Marc Rowan warns Wall Street to brace for a seismic shift as big asset managers race to tap private investments in a bid to stay competitive.

• Trump paused new Canada tariffs for 30 days after a call with Trudeau, following a similar move with Mexico. (Capital Brief)

• Trump's tariffs could raise U.S. home construction costs by US$29,000, exacerbating the affordability crisis. (Bloomberg)

• Chalmers says Trump's tariff changes are expected, and Australia can manage them. (Capital Brief)

• Nufarm sees strong demand, with inventory cuts and cost savings on track. (Capital Brief)

• Betr raises $15M to acquire TopSport, with a 34¢ per share placement. (AFR)

• Morningstar cuts Magellan’s value, forecasting $8B outflows. (Capital Brief)

• Pro Medicus shares rise after securing a $53M contract with BayCare to implement its imaging platform across 16 hospitals. (Capital Brief)

• News Corp gains on UBS upgrade, Nine and oOh!media fall after downgrades. (Capital Brief)

• Realm’s credit fund IPO closes with bids surpassing $450M. (AFR)

• HSBC revises rate cut forecast to February due to tariff uncertainty and inflation. (Capital Brief)

• A $15B Australian Government Bond attracts $76B in demand, with a yield of 4.48%. (The Australian)

• Macquarie rates DigiCo REIT 'outperform,' citing growth potential and capital needs. (Capital Brief)

• Australia's privacy regulator monitors DeepSeek amid global privacy concerns. (Capital Brief | Bloomberg)

• yesTPG explores an IPO for Greencross after a failed $3.75B sale, with key appointments pending. (AFR)

• ASX rises as Trump pauses tariffs on Mexico and Canada. (Capital Brief)

• China targets Google, Nvidia, and Intel in fresh antitrust crackdown, retaliating against US tariffs on coal, LNG, and biotech giant Illumina. (Capital Brief)(FT)(NYT)

• Transurban's weak share price and valuable toll road assets may make it a prime buyout target for pension funds. (AFR)

• European stocks fall as China retaliates with tariffs, but market impact remains muted. (FT)

• Amcor misses Q2 revenue targets but reaffirms 2025 forecast and acquisition plans. (Capital Brief)

• Altus Renewables denies Mitsui's claims of loss from undelivered shipments during its collapse. (Capital Brief)

• Adani is close to securing a $332M debt deal for its Queensland port, testing lenders' appetite for financing fossil fuel projects. (AFR)

VC

• Ovum raises $1.7M for an AI women's health assistant, with trials set for 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Lorikeet, an AI startup in Sydney, hits a $100M valuation, offering AI customer service agents to top firms while staying cautious of AI hype. (AFR)

• AdvanCell raises $171M to boost prostate cancer treatment development. (Capital Brief)

• More than 20,000 federal employees have signed up for a voluntary resignation deal as the Trump administration seeks to cut the workforce by 10%, though the target may be challenging to reach. (Bloomberg)

People moves

• Goldman Sachs cuts its alumni fund buy-in to $25K, courting former partners as it doubles down on private markets. (FT)

• Westpac names CBA's Paul Fowler as business and wealth head. (Capital Brief)

• Woolworths names Annette Karantoni and Sally Copland as new retail heads. (Capital Brief)

• BNP Paribas hires Peter Medynski to expand in Australia’s leveraged finance market, coinciding with rising M&A loan volumes in Asia Pacific. (Bloomberg)

• Monroe Capital opens a Sydney office with Galen Fu to lead its Australian operations. (AFR)

• Philippe Perzi from Goldman Sachs is rumored to be a potential candidate for Citi's Australian investment banking top role. (The Australian)

• US job openings slumped in December as layoffs hit Estée Lauder, Salesforce, and ADM, underscoring corporate belt-tightening amid profit pressures. (Capital Brief)(WSJ)(Bloomberg)

The watercooler