☕️ Escrow enchilada

Good morning.

Barrenjoey and Morgan Stanley wowed many yesterday. By carefully structuring a tantalisingly tight supply with a limited stock offering, the master chefs ensured a hyper successful market debut for taco-shop Guzman y Gomez. The sizzling debut saw shares rocket 30% to $30, leaving investors salivating for more.

Now the real intrigue begins. With most shares locked in escrow, the market is speculating: what will happen when these shares are finally free to trade? Will that lead to the stock being included in the S&P/ASX 200 index, or will the scarcity value factor disappear? Stay tuned.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Helia Group shares did a high-flying U-turn on Thursday, soaring 16% to $3.89 after Wednesday’s nosedive. Macquarie helped, upgrading Helia to 'outperform', with analysts suggesting a potential 9% gross written premium (GWP) uplift if they manage to keep CBA's exclusive LMI writer spot.

Morningstar chimed in, calling Helia shares undervalued post-selloff, cheekily hinting at a fair value of $4—assuming CBA doesn't pop their bubble.

The quick sync

• 'If the price is high enough': AGL in pivotal position under Dutton’s nuclear plan (Capital Brief)

• Virgin Australia and industry experts optimistic about sustainable fuels budget boost (Capital Brief)

• The $15 billion National Reconstruction Fund is struggling to find investments (AFR)

• Super funds managing growth options are set for a 9% return this financial year (AFR)

• Mortgage brokers warn buy now, pay later loans can affect borrowing capacity (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• MMA Offshore's directors back Cyan Renewables' "best and final" takeover offer, urging shareholder approval pending an expert review. (Capital Brief)

• Lantheus invests in Radiopharm Theranostics with a $65m raise at a 47% premium. (AFR)

• Bigtincan Holdings rejects a revised takeover bid from Vector Capital, deeming the offer price insufficient. (Capital Brief)

• City Chic Collective is selling its US-based Avenue business to Fullbeauty Brands to focus on core markets and is in a trading halt pending a capital raise. (Capital Brief)

• Southern Cross Media Group is in talks with Australian Community Media regarding a merger proposal involving the acquisition of 14 news publications and an agriculture division. (The Australian)

• Greenstone Partners joins the Merger Alliance network, enhancing its global reach. (AFR)

• DroneShield secures new order from Swiss customer for vehicle-based counter-drone systems, aimed at rapid deployment in convoy and mobile VIP protection. (Capital Brief)

• Beam in Business acquires Freelancing Gems' membership and platform. (BNA)

• The ACCC is concerned that Olam Agri Holdings' proposed takeover of Namoi Cotton would significantly reduce competition in cotton ginning and lint classing services. (Capital Brief)

Capital Markets

• DesignCrowd plans an equity raising to provide liquidity for early pre-IPO investors, with RBC Capital Markets assisting. (AFR)

• Guzman y Gomez has a history of missing forecasts, casting doubt on its IPO projections despite a 36% share price surge. (AFR)

VC

• Maxme raises $400,000 to expand human skill development programs, supported by LaunchVic’s Alice Anderson Fund. (Smart Company)

• Ilya Sutskever is starting Safe Superintelligence, an AI company focused on safety, joined by Daniel Levy and Daniel Gross. (Capital Brief)

People moves

• None

Watercooler

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