☕️ Enron redux?

ASIC’s AI trial flags 4 ASX giants for collapse

Good morning.

Remember Enron? The energy trader that imploded spectacularly in 2001, shaking the accounting world? Reports of its return with a potential crypto twist have the Twitterati buzzing.

The whole setup reeks of a hoax from miles away. But for harder-to-spot frauds, ASIC is trialling an AI detection tool that claims it can sniff out "the next Enron" years before it collapses, as reported by Capital Brief’s Jack Derwin.

The tool, Transparently, claims a 90% accuracy rate and has already flagged four ASX-listed giants with a combined $10 billion market value, according to founder Hamish Macalister, a former quant head at Citi, Deutsche Bank, and DWS Group.

“Those four [companies] are rated ‘F.’ To put it in context, ‘F’ is Wirecard, ‘F’ is Evergrande,” Macalister said. In other words, very F…. serious. Other 32 billion-plus ASX-listed companies have been flagged with ‘C’ ratings, meaning a 50/50 probability of losing at least 80% of their value within 5 years.

ASX as at market close. Commodities and crypto in USD.

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Market movers

Northern Star’s $5 billion bid for De Grey Mining lit up the boards, sending De Grey shares up over 29%.

De Grey’s Hemi project would add serious scale to Australia’s largest listed gold miner, but shifting from old asset turnarounds to a greenfield gamble has the market second-guessing the timing. Citi reckons it’s close to a done deal—De Grey holders pocket a fat premium and dodge the Lassonde Curve grind.

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The quick sync

  • Deeligence’s Elena Tsalanidis plans a bold return to fundraising, challenging VC’s gender biases while scaling her AI-driven legal tech startup for global expansion. (Capital Brief)

  • Australia’s climate tech leaders eye China partnerships to counter Donald Trump-era renewables uncertainty. (Capital Brief)

  • The Albanese government expands migration list to include tradies amid housing crisis push. (AFR)

  • Ken Leech’s US$50b scandal ties Credit Suisse bond wipeout to alleged fraud at Wamco. (Bloomberg)

  • Disgraced billionaire Greg Lindberg’s sprawling 'baby project,' built on manipulation, deceit and gaps in US fertility oversight. (Bloomberg)

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Trading floor

M&A

  • TPG Capital is acquiring a majority stake in EQT's Five Good Friends. (AFR)

  • CEFC has invested $25m in Energy Locals, a subsidiary of Palisade Impact. (AFR)

  • Affinity Equity Partners is exploring the sale of Scottish Pacific, a business lender, with Goldman Sachs as their advisor. (The Australian)

  • Japanese trading house Sojitz is interested in acquiring North Queensland Airports, which includes Cairns and Mackay airports. (AFR)

  • Singapore Post is selling its Australian business, Freight Management Holdings, to Pacific Equity Partners for $1.02bn. (Capital Brief)

  • Global buyout funds eye The Entertainment and Education Group, but owner, Quadrant Private Equity, plans to retain the company to capitalize on its growth in India. (The Australian)

  • Top Shelf International, the owner of Ned Australian Whisky, is exploring a potential sale of its business. (AFR)

  • Telstra acquires Boost Mobile, a prepaid mobile services provider. (Capital Brief)

  • Keystone's Shield Master Fund is being liquidated after investors rejected multiple bids to save the fund. (AFR)

  • Northern Star buys De Grey for $5bn for its valuable gold project. (Capital Brief)

  • Oscars Group has acquired Sydney's Luna Park. (BNA)

Capital Markets

  • Netwealth hits $100bn in funds under management (FUA) and launches a new online platform. (Capital Brief)

  • 360 Capital Mortgage REIT is raising $16.32m to invest in residential properties in north west Sydney. (AFR)

  • Land & Homes Group, an Australian property company, has entered voluntary administration due to funding issues for its Fortitude Valley apartment project. (BNA)

VC

  • Freckle has raised $2.9m in pre-seed funding to help B2B companies. (Capital Brief)

People moves

  • Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger has stepped down with CFO David Zinsner and Products CEO Michelle Johnston Holthaus replacing him as interim co-CEOs. (Capital Brief)

  • NAB's chief economist, Alan Oster, is retiring and will be replaced by Sally Auld, a former JP Morgan executive. (Capital Brief)

  • The Transport Workers Union is threatening to withdraw its support for Virgin Australia's Qatar Airways deal if the airline appoints former Qantas executive Paul Jones as CEO. (AFR)

  • Ed Husic announces R&D system review led by Tesla chair Robyn Denholm, with results expected next year. (Capital Brief)

  • Uber has settled a class action lawsuit with thousands of Australian taxi drivers. (Capital Brief)

☝️ Know about a deal or people move we don’t? Hit reply.

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The watercooler