☕️Dumping Ground

Good morning.

Australian retailers are looking mighty appealing to short sellers as DJT’s trade war with China shows little sign of abating. As Chinese exports to the US remain subject to 145% tariffs, markets suspect that China will begin dumping goods elsewhere, potentially causing significant implications for e-commerce platforms and other retailers selling those goods in Australia.

“It can't be good for local e-commerce companies,” QVG Capital principal and portfolio manager Chris Prunty tells Capital Brief.

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Market movers

The market lifted on Monday amid global gains and US tariff relief, but it’s Neuren’s jump on FDA trial greenlight that drove the day’s biggest move.

The quick sync

• Asian dollar bonds face their worst losses since 2020 as Trump’s tariffs revive credit risk fears despite year-to-date outperformance. (Bloomberg)

• Australia's VC market surged in Q1 2025 as AI and climate tech boomed and investors weighed rising sovereign risk amid Trump-era tariffs. (Capital Brief)(AFR)

• As private credit surges past $150b, Privity warns lenders to stay disciplined amid rising risks and a maturing market. (Capital Brief)

• As Kevin Han writes, social platforms are sidelining creators and brands, using generative AI to flood feeds with cheap, controlled content that keeps users scrolling and spending. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Gold Road backs Northern Star’s bid for De Grey ahead of 16 April vote. (Capital Brief)

• Adrian Portelli is preparing LMCT+ for a sale, with MacCap handling the process, following discussions on how to make the company sale-ready. (AFR)

• Pacific Equity Partners hired Stanton Road Partners and Morgan Stanley to auction UP Education. (AFR)

• Global suitors, including United Tractors and Chifeng, are vying to buy Queensland’s Ravenswood gold mine, with price expectations possibly adjusted due to hedging contracts. (The Australian)

• Intel sells 51% of its Altera chip unit to Silver Lake for $8.75b, retaining a 49% stake as part of its strategy to focus on core assets. (FT)

• Five V Capital chose Goldman Sachs to handle the $500m-plus sale of its minority stake in Automic Group. (AFR)

• KKR buys the OSTTRA joint venture from S&P Global and CME Group for $3.1b, despite market volatility from tariff issues. (Reuters)

• Incitec Pivot extends the timeline for buyers of its fertiliser business due to market volatility, with a sale expected by mid-year. (The Australian)

Capital Markets

• ASX gains 1.3% on US tariff reprieve, led by healthcare and tech stocks. (Capital Brief)

• Trump denies tech tariff break, says electronics still face levies amid China-focused trade crackdown. (Capital Brief)

• Trump’s chaos hits fintechs hard, delaying big IPOs like Klarna and eToro amid market uncertainty. (Capital Brief)

• Botanix Pharmaceuticals is raising $40m via a share offering at 33¢ each. (AFR)

• DroneShield wins $32.2m in APAC defence deals for anti-drone systems. (Capital Brief)

• Bellevue cuts production outlook, raises $156.5m, and launches strategic review after COO quits. (Capital Brief)

• Barrenjoey handled a $300m line in Sigma Healthcare, with 100 million shares traded before Monday’s market open. (AFR)

• Macquarie downgraded by Morgan Stanley as capital markets slump delays recovery to 2028. (Capital Brief)

• UBS boosts gold price forecast and upgrades Newmont due to trade wars and economic uncertainty. (Capital Brief)

• Anchorage Capital Partners is meeting with lenders to secure additional funding for Specialised Linen Services. (AFR)

• Clorox fined $8.25m for false claims about ocean plastic in GLAD bags and ordered to improve compliance. (Capital Brief)

• Li Ka-Shing to sell 43 ports for US$19b, with opposition from China and the US, amid concerns over unpaid fees and political tensions. (Capital Brief)

• EBR Systems' FDA-approved heart device aims to prevent heart failure, tapping into a $6b market. (AFR)

• Meta faces an FTC antitrust trial that could result in selling Instagram and WhatsApp, as the FTC argues Meta holds an illegal monopoly in social networking. (Capital Brief)

• Goldman Sachs saw record profits in equities trading in Q1, but investment banking fees dropped due to market volatility. (Capital Brief)

• Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan lead a $16.5b borrowing spree, raising funds through bond offerings, with more banks expected to follow. (Bloomberg)

• LVMH missed Q1 revenue targets amid trade tensions and declining demand in the luxury sector. (Capital Brief)

• IFM Investors exits the government's embattled Climate Active scheme, joining a wave of corporate departures that cast fresh doubt over its future after the election. (The Australian)

• Blue Origin’s all-female celebrity crew, including Katy Perry and Lauren Sanchez, makes history with 11-minute spaceflight. (BBC)(Blue Origin)

• BoQ’s branch buyback battle heats up, with 70 owners demanding double the payout and setting the stage for a costly showdown. (AFR)

• NSW Chief Justice in push to overhaul Australia’s mandatory $10,000 legal training system, after thousands of graduates slammed it as costly, low-value and open to cheating. (SMH)(AFR)

• Scape edges closer to a $3bn-plus Aveo deal, now courting capital partners to seal the high-stakes acquisition of the retirement living giant. (The Australian)

• Trump-driven volatility is freezing fintech fundraising and IPOs, with Klarna and eToro among high-profile casualties as Australian startups face tougher US expansion prospects. (Capital Brief)

VC

• Venture capital funding in Australia saw a strong start to 2025, with $993m raised in Q1. (Capital Brief)(AFR)

People moves

• Adairs has appointed Trent Peterson as permanent chair and added former T2 Tea CEO Rachel Kelly to its board. (Capital Brief)

• Clayton Larcombe, once a Sydney funds manager, transitions to AI investing in the Middle East after facing scrutiny over his previous track record. (AFR)

The watercooler