☕️ Dealcation Declared

Good morning.

The M&A market in the US just clocked its busiest week since 2021, blindsiding everyone who booked August off. Union Pacific’s US$71.5 billion rail play is leading a wave of large-cap deals pushing lawyers and bankers back into boardrooms. Palo Alto Networks–CyberArk, Baker Hughes–Chart Industries and others were also in the mix.

After months of talk and little action, the oft-cited ‘pipeline’ is finally moving. Kraft Heinz is weighing a breakup, Kenvue is exploring strategic options and LVMH is in talks to sell Marc Jacobs. And of course, Figma just declared the IPO window wide open. Before long, the next thing in focus will be bonuses.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Capstone Copper surged Friday after it posted record Q2 copper production and earnings, with output set to rise in H2 2025.

The quick sync

• IREN shifts from crypto mining to AI data centres but does so outside of Australia despite local calls for such infrastructure. (Capital Brief)

• Palantir hires CMAX Advisory amid Greens' call to freeze its government contracts. (Capital Brief)

• Lachlan Murdoch is preparing for a pivotal legal double-header: a $15.5b Trump lawsuit and a renewed fight over the Murdoch family trust set to reignite in October. (Capital Brief)

• The Guardian’s profits are up and reader revenue leads the way. But behind the $42m result, staff exits and HR complaints reveal tensions. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Adamantem pulls ahead of PEP in Nexon takeover race. (AFR)

• Perpetual nears wealth unit sale; Oaktree leads, EQT may rejoin. (The Australian)

• BMI Resource Recovery eyes $1b+ sale after strong growth under Irvine family. (AFR)

• Coronado to launch asset sale as interest shifts to U.S. Buchanan mine. (The Australian)

• Anglo and Peabody may go to court over $5.87b coal deal after mine fire. (AFR)

• Agnico Eagle eyes $1.2b Bellevue Gold amid WA expansion push. (The Australian)

• Lendlease calls third round of bids for Keyton; AustralianSuper in final stage. (AFR)

• Oyo buys Airbnb platform MadeComfy for $50m to enter Australasian market. (AFR)

• New Murchison rejects Meeka Metals’ takeover bid amid takeover speculation. (The Australian)

Capital Markets

• Opec+ ends 2024 oil cut early, raising output by 547,000 bpd in September amid market and diplomatic pressures. (Capital Brief)

• Greatland Gold faces heat after profit warning post-ASX debut. (AFR)

• Canberra approves $5b Marinus Link project amid political tensions in Tasmania. (AFR)

• Silver Mines launches $30m raising after 62.5% share rally. (AFR)

• Howden says 70% of Australian firms underinsured, eyes growth. (AFR)

• Cannon-Brookes’ Atlassian stake and control shares are central to divorce talks as the company faces $5.4b in total losses since listing. (AFR)

• Cue Clothing posted losses before Hilco takeover amid 2024 sales slump. (AFR)

• AFCA's “quick and dirty” push to clear its complaints backlog risks exposing thousands of financial dispute decisions to challenge. (The Australian)

• UBS says caps on bank stocks in the ASX 200 are needed to protect super from growing exposure to housing market risks. (AFR)

VC 

• None

People moves

• None

The watercooler