☕️ Deal pressure

Good morning.

Another Monday morning, another outlook tale of banker bullishness. The latest missive comes via the Australian Financial Review, with Morgan Stanley’s Richard Hersey predicting “fertile terrain” for M&A, thanks to Trump’s pro-growth agenda, pent-up demand and an easing rate environment. JPMorgan’s Mark Carlile echoed the sentiment, reporting cautious optimism as dealmakers watch for signals from the incoming administration.

This follows last week’s forecast in The Australian, where Deutsche Bank’s Emma-Jane Newton said 2025 could be the busiest year for deals “in many years,” citing a flood of RFPs and narrowing valuation gaps.

With trillions in private equity coffers globally, stabilising inflation and international buyers circling undervalued Australian assets, the pipeline is bulging. But execution risk remains elevated and political uncertainty looms. The pressure is on to turn bullish chatter into hard results.

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Market movers

Insignia Financial gained almost 2% on Friday as it said it had not received a takeover proposal from Brookfield after a media report claimed the investment giant was considering a bid. Reports today are that Bain Capital is set to match CC Capital’s $4.30-a-share bid for the company.

The quick sync

• Nine Entertainment’s power shake-up under interim CEO Matt Stanton reshuffles its hierarchy, boosting Tory Maguire and Matt James while sidelining legacy execs in a bold restructure. (Capital Brief)

• Australia's jobs data this week could upend RBA rate cut bets as unemployment stays stubbornly low. (Capital Brief)

• ANU faces backlash as vice chancellor Genevieve Bell’s $1m salary and Intel payments spark outrage over governance failures and a "broken" university system. (Capital Brief)

• BoQ's turnaround hits turbulence as business banking boss Chris Screen quits, leaving the bank’s profit-focused strategy without a key leader. (AFR)

• Small business restructures have surged 210% as ATO debt recovery ramps up, pushing struggling companies to seek last-ditch survival plans. (The Australian)

Trading floor

M&A

• The Supreme Court weighs ByteDance's TikTok sale mandate, with national security and free speech at stake, as Frank McCourt offers to buy its US operations. (Capital Brief)

• PEP plans a 2025 exit from Equiniti, targeting a $316m payout after losses. (AFR)

• Bankers expect a deal surge and higher fees in 2025, fueled by private equity and a Trump-friendly business environment. (AFR)

• KKR's Laser Clinics eyes sale as global PE firms show interest in the health and wellness sector. (AFR)

• Bain Capital counters CC Capital's bid for Insignia Financial with a matching $4.30 per share offer. (AFR)

• Regal Partners' King brothers split their stake to attract ETF investors and pursue ASX index inclusion. (AFR)

• Chow Tai Fook considers selling a stake in Alinta Energy, hiring advisers for the process. (Bloomberg)

• EG Group, the Issa brothers' petrol station empire, plans a US$13b US IPO, ditching UK forecourts as it shifts focus to American growth. (FT)

Capital Markets

• Colonial First State posts 17% returns for MySuper customers and plans to focus on private equity and infrastructure investments. (The Australian)

• Employment data may shape the Reserve Bank's rate cut outlook amid inflation concerns. (Capital Brief)

• Small businesses facing debt are increasingly using SBR legislation for restructuring, with appointments set to surge as the ATO pursues debt recovery. (The Australian)

• Apple defends DEI programs as Meta, Amazon, and others roll them back under legal and political pressure. (Capital Brief)

VC

• Tennis Australia raises $50m for AO Ventures to invest in sports and entertainment tech start-ups. (AFR)

• Yang Rongfeng leads modular construction innovation in Australia to tackle the housing crisis. (GlobalNewsWire)

People moves

• The Greens demand university reform as ANU's Genevieve Bell faces scrutiny over Intel ties and job cuts. (Capital Brief)

• Nine Entertainment's 'Nine2028' restructure grants more influence to publishing boss Tory Maguire and sales chief Matt James. (Capital Brief)

• Meta vows to maintain diversity in Australia, despite scrapping its global DEI team and easing content moderation policies. (AFR)

• Bank of Queensland’s business banking head resigns, hindering turnaround efforts focused on growth in that division. (AFR)

• Nicola Proud claims Linktree fired her unfairly, citing fabricated allegations and demotion before maternity leave. (AFR)

• Alice Weidel, the ex-Goldman Sachs analyst turned AfD leader, uses fiery rhetoric and a polished image to push Germany’s far-right closer to historic electoral gains. (FT)

• US hedge fund boss Boaz Weinstein is pushing to shake up the struggling UK investment trust market, targeting seven trusts in a bold £266b overhaul. (FT)

The watercooler