☕️Credit Revolution

Good morning.

As regulators slam the door on hybrids for retail punters, private credit is throwing it wide open, and Revolution Asset Management is ready to make hay. With a new $3 billion vehicle quietly registered with ASIC, Revolution’s CEO Bob Sahota told Capital Brief that APRA’s controversial decision to shut down hybrids for retail investors by 2023 would boost demand for the much scrutinised private credit sector.

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Market movers

Uranium strength and upbeat project updates powered shares in Boss Energy and Mineral Resources higher on Tuesday, and lifting the ASX for a fourth straight session.

The quick sync

• Labor and the Coalition are set to turbocharge their YouTube ad blitz ahead of polling day, pushing political spend on the platform past $16.5m to sway voters. (Capital Brief)

• Labor's tax on unrealised super gains faces fierce VC backlash over fears it will choke startup funding and force investors to pay for profits they haven't made. (Capital Brief)

• As Dimitri Burshtein writes, Australia’s political class is clinging to reckless spending and empty promises as debt surges and strategic threats mount. (Capital Brief)

• Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says dealmaking and IPOs will rebound as policy clarity returns, despite rising layoffs and a slow start to 2025. (Bloomberg)

• Mark Carney's election win in Canada spells a warning for Peter Dutton. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Betr offers $360m bid for PointsBet after acquiring 19.9% stake. (Capital Brief)

• Stripe is eyeing Tyro Payments, whose share price has fallen due to competition with larger players. (AFR)

• BGH Capital explored a buyout of Endeavour Group but withdrew due to funding challenges linked to gambling exposure. (The Australian)

• Abacus Storage King is assessing a $1.9b bid with advisers' help, following its spin-off of self-storage properties two years ago. (AFR)

• Pfizer aims to acquire smaller drugmakers for up to $15b to boost its pipeline after the obesity pill failure and declining COVID-19 product sales. (Bloomberg)

Capital Markets

• Northern Star cuts FY25 gold output forecast, raises cost outlook. (Capital Brief)

• Woodside Energy has approved a US$17.5b LNG project in Louisiana, aiming to boost its global LNG output and secure long-term returns. (Capital Brief)

• PwC threatens to sack staff who don't comply with the new three-day office work rule. (Telegraph)

• Fortescue boosted March quarter shipments and lowered costs, maintaining its full-year guidance despite weather impacts. (Capital Brief)

• FNZ faces class action from 300+ employee shareholders across multiple countries. (AFR)

• Auckland Airport has delayed its second runway project by at least 10 years, citing improved operational efficiency. (Capital Brief)

• BlinkLab seeks $5m for a US clinical study ahead of FDA submission. (AFR)

• Whitehaven Coal remains on track to meet its full-year guidance despite weather-related disruptions in the March quarter. (Capital Brief)

• Delta Lithium to spin off gold assets into Ballard Mining and pursue an IPO amid high gold demand. (AFR)

• Elon Musk's involvement in US government policies, including his influence under Trump, cost him $113b, with Tesla's stock falling 33% since January. (Bloomberg)

• Political scrutiny and future rate cuts may pressure bank margins, challenging the status of bank stocks as safe-haven assets. (AFR)

• Vulcan Energy starts supplying renewable heat to EnergieSüdwest, expanding its German operations. (Capital Brief)

• Canva's Cliff Obrecht stirs investor anxiety with LinkedIn post about deal speed ahead of the company's IPO. (AFR)

• Economists warn Australia's AAA credit rating is at risk from election spending, but Albanese and Chalmers dismiss S&P’s concerns, suggesting political action will only come after a crisis. (Capital Brief)

• MinRes rules out equity raise as its debt hits $5.4b, and shares rise despite financial struggles. (AFR)

• Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada's Conservative Party, is projected to lose his seat in the election to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy, despite his party's strong performance, while Mark Carney’s Liberals are set to form the next government. (Capital Brief)

• Meta launched Meta AI, a standalone app based on its Llama model, to compete with ChatGPT. (Bloomberg)

• Inflationary pressures in the mining sector are easing as production costs fall, driven by lower commodity prices and a weaker Australian dollar. (AFR)

• BP’s Q1 profits halved, missing expectations, due to lower crude prices and a strategy shift away from green energy. (Capital Brief)

• UBS Australia ranks highly for sell-side research, despite not topping ECM league tables, in Extel Insights' inaugural rankings. (AFR)

• GM and Volvo pulled their 2025 profit guidance amid uncertainty over US tariffs. (Capital Brief)

• Marks & Spencer's systems were disrupted by a DragonForce ransomware attack, halting online orders and in-store payments as the company works on recovery. (Bloomberg)

• Peninsula Energy’s shares have dropped 70%, leading to a trading suspension and concerns over a production downgrade. (AFR)

• PwC forecasts AI will drive a 15% global economic growth by 2035, with Asia Pacific contributing $4.69t in 2025. (Capital Brief)

• Rio Tinto faces uncertainty over the Bell Bay smelter's future due to failed power supply negotiations with the Tasmanian government. (AFR)

• Trump will sign an order to ease 25% auto tariffs, addressing automakers' concerns about rising prices and reduced competitiveness. (Capital Brief) (AP)(Capital Brief)(Reuters)(Bloomberg)(WSJ)

• Netball Australia seeks expansion and private investment after a strong 2024 surplus driven by cost cuts and higher ticket sales. (AFR)

• Australia’s wine export boom to China is slowing as consumption in China and globally declines. (Reuters)

• UniSuper is cutting exposure to US markets and focusing on liquidity after significant investments in Silicon Valley firms. (AFR)

• YouTube has earned $16.5m in political ads during the Australian federal election, with Labor and the Coalition ramping up spending ahead of polling day. (Capital Brief)

• James Packer sells his Beverly Hills mansion at a steep $39m discount, closing at $93.5m after a year on the market. (SMH)(AFR)

• Wall Street banks finally offload Elon Musk’s US$13b X debt after Trump’s win and a surge in investor interest driven by Musk’s AI merger. (WSJ)

• Investors are piling into Australian banks as a so-called safe haven, but with weak growth and looming rate cuts, reality could soon bite. (AFR)

• After a rocky exit from Dominos, Don Meij launches a podcast to rebrand as a business guru, offering lessons from a global expansion that failed to deliver. (AFR)

• Mexico strikes a water deal with the US to defuse trade tensions and meet treaty obligations, easing pressure on president Sheinbaum as drought grips the north. (FT)

VC

• Fluency, an AI startup, raised $1.5m to enhance its platform that automates process documentation and boosts workflow efficiency for enterprises. (Capital Brief)

• GenEmbryomics cancels Nasdaq IPO, blaming US tariffs for investor hesitation. (AFR)

• MGA Thermal unveils world-first renewable system for continuous industrial steam. (Capital Brief)

• Economists warn a crisis may be needed to force fiscal discipline, as both major parties ignore S&P’s downgrade threat to Australia's AAA credit rating. (Capital Brief)

• Nike bets on Kim Kardashian and a stealth-built NikeSkims label to fix its women's business and claw back ground in the booming activewear market. (Bloomberg)

• Amazon denies internal tariff labelling plan after White House backlash and direct complaint from Trump to Bezos. (Bloomberg)

• Deloitte’s massive lease at Hudson Yards signals a high-end office market revival as trophy towers return to pre-pandemic demand. (WSJ)

• US consumer confidence plunges to pandemic-era lows as Trump's tariffs fuel recession fears and curb spending. (AP)(Conference Board)

• UPS cutting around 20,000 jobs due to 'new or increased tariffs'; 73 buildings closing. (USA Today)

• EA axes hundreds of jobs and shelves Titanfall spinoff as it refocuses on Apex Legends and Star Wars. (Bloomberg)

• Harvard apologises and promises sweeping reforms after scathing reports reveal antisemitism and anti-Muslim bias left students fearful and unsupported. (Bloomberg)

• China says it won’t kneel to Trump’s tariff pressure, positioning itself as a global defender against US trade bullying. (WaPo)(WSJ)(Bloomberg)(CNN)

• ABC staff slam chair Kim Williams’ “arrogant” conduct in comedian controversy, fuelling calls for an inquiry and fresh scrutiny of his leadership. (SMH)

• Scott Bessent warns China could lose 10 million jobs ‘very quickly’ if it doesn’t back down on tariffs, raising the stakes in Trump’s trade war. (Yahoo Finance)

People moves

• Carolyn McCann to act as Westpac's consumer banking head from May 12. (Capital Brief)

• Endeavour Group has appointed former Virgin Australia CEO Jayne Hrdlicka as its next CEO, starting January 2026. (Capital Brief)

• Anne Whitaker resigns from Telix board after brief tenure. (Capital Brief)

• Citi hires Laura Sutcliffe from UBS to lead healthcare research. (AFR)

• Cathy O’Connor will step down as CEO of oOh!media later this year after more than four years in the role. (Capital Brief)(The Australian)

• Matt James appointed permanent Chief Sales Officer at Nine Entertainment. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler