☕️ Charged questions

Good morning.

Firmus is mid-roadshow for one of the biggest local IPOs of the decade and the pitch looks good (think Tasmanian hydro power, green AI factories, USD5.5 billion valuation).

Capital Brief’s Hugo Mathers reports, however, that down in Tasmania, the state-sanctioned deal holding it all together is attracting the wrong kind of attention. The questions seem to have arisen in a bit of an information vacuum, and after a long line of companies were knocked back for access to the same renewable grid over price or availability.

So far, no one has explained how Firmus managed to skip the queue.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in packaging company Orora plunged on Friday, extending an 18% selloff the previous session after the company downgraded its full-year guidance and paused its share buyback. UBS cut its 12-month price target to $1.70 and slashed earnings forecasts by up to 27% across FY27 and FY28 due to weaker demand and disruption to Orora’s Saverglass glass bottle division from constrained shipping access at its United Arab Emirates plant.

The quick sync

• Humanforce acquires Emprevo and ShiftMatch in an eight-figure deal to accelerate US and UK expansion. (Capital Brief)

• Short sellers target PEXA as regulatory pressure mounts and NSW court blocks its transaction fee. (Capital Brief)

• Australia faces stagflation and further rate rises regardless of how US-Iran peace talks unfold. (Capital Brief)

• Greg Moriarty faces a baptism of fire as he replaces Kevin Rudd at a testing time for the US alliance. (Capital Brief)

• Anthropic's bumper week puts the software industry on notice as AI disruption fears accelerate. (Capital Brief)

• Magellan gets shareholder support for Barrenjoey merger but faces lingering questions over transparency and the Lowy family's outsized role in the deal. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Magellan shareholders back Barrenjoey merger; shares rise. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• Alisa and Lysandra Fraser put al.ive skincare brand up for sale. (AFR)

• Rio Tinto’s US boron assets draw bids, valued up to USD2b. (Reuters)

• Hugh van Cuylenburg seeks sale of Resilience Project wellbeing business. (AFR)

• MYOB partners with Microsoft in AI push amid accounting software competition. (Smart Company)

• Radiology Partners linked to potential bid for I-MED ahead of IPO. (The Australian)

• Zen Energy in exclusive sale talks with Swiss buyer amid auction process. (AFR)

• Ramsay Health Care may sell UK arm amid restructuring plans. (The Australian)

• Humanforce buys Emprevo and ShiftMatch in expansion push. (Capital Brief)

Capital Markets

• FDA accepts Telix’s TLX101-Px application for brain cancer imaging. (Capital Brief)

• Dexus faces legal dispute over alleged unauthorised sharing of Melbourne Airport stake information. (AFR)

• Blackstone files USD2b IPO for AI-focused data-center investment vehicle. (Bloomberg)

• Fortescue aims for 24-hour renewable-powered Pilbara operations by 2027. (Capital Brief)

• Hyundai recalls 5,000 EVs in Australia over battery fire risk. (Startup Daily)

• Morgan Stanley cuts ASX tech valuations by 20% over AI disruption risks. (AFR)

• Rural towns push for more migrants to fill labor shortages despite political opposition. (Capital Brief)

• La Trobe Financial to launch retail commercial real estate fund amid private credit demand. (AFR)

• Electro Optic Systems says director’s pre-announcement share trade was compliant and not insider-driven. (Capital Brief)

• Cannon-Brookes defends Atlassian after $37b AI-driven valuation fall. (AFR)

• Anthropic’s new AI fuels fears of disruption to software firms and rising cyber risks. (Capital Brief)

• Qantas nears testing of Project Sunrise A350s and plans celestial-themed aircraft names. (AFR)

• US inflation rises sharply in March as energy prices surge. (Capital Brief)

• General Atlantic weighs $1b+ IPO for Mable, hires four banks. (AFR)

• Australia faces economic risks despite US-Iran ceasefire and peace talks. (Capital Brief)

• Australia may boost cost-of-living support amid fuel price shocks from US-Iran conflict. (Capital Brief)

• Ventia under pressure as telco exposure weighs on valuation. (The Australian)

• Brambles faces potential $100m+ shareholder payout over misleading profit forecasts. (AFR)

• Property values soften as rates and geopolitical risks weigh on housing market. (Capital Brief)

• Oppo launches Find N6 foldable phone with upgraded pen support. (AFR)

• Grattan Institute calls for stronger fiscal buffers to prepare for future crises. (Capital Brief)

• Firmus IPO faces scrutiny over unclear Tasmanian energy deal. (Capital Brief)

• Short sellers target PEXA amid regulatory pressure on fees. (Capital Brief)

• Failure of US-Iran talks set to weigh on risk assets Monday. (Bloomberg)

• Vaucluse mansion owned by Smorgon dynasty members gets a $10m discount. (SMH)

• Wall St banks set to report $40b trading haul as Iran war rekindles volatility. (FT)

VC 

• Sydney startup Haast secures $17.2m Series A to scale AI compliance tools. (Capital Brief)

People moves

• Former Big Un CEO Richard Evans pleads guilty to insider trading over pre-collapse disclosures. (Capital Brief)

• Life360 CEO Lauren Antonoff announced job cuts as the company restructures to become an AI-native business. (Capital Brief)

• Hungarians sweep away Orban after 16 years in seismic vote. (Bloomberg)

The watercooler