☕️ Bull duel

Good morning.

Wall Street’s biggest brains are butting heads over where US stocks are headed. JPMorgan is reportedly betting on a solid run for the next decade, predicting annualized returns of 6.7% for big-name stocks—fuelled by solid fundamentals and the AI boom fattening corporate margins. On the flip side, Goldman Sachs strategists seem far less upbeat, forecasting a paltry 3% growth and warning they see a 72% chance that stocks may lag behind bonds.

JPMorgan’s brains argue America’s corporate giants have sharp elbows when it comes to keeping margins, while Goldman’s team warns that elevated Treasury yields could steal the show. Who’s your money on?

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Market movers

Stanmore Resources shares edged higher on Tuesday after the coal miner boosted production and sales in the September quarter, though the stock is still down over 25% this year.

With a solid cash position and production records under its belt, the company is sticking to its full-year guidance of 13.5 to 14 million tonnes of saleable coal.

The quick sync

• Former Macquarie execs build $450m Palisade impact fund aiming for zero emissions, waste and inequality. (Capital Brief)

• Deloitte warns Australia’s growth at risk from China’s slowdown, calls for new economic strategy. (Capital Brief)

• IMF cuts 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%, warning of rising risks from Middle East conflict and trade tensions. (Capital Brief)

• HSBC splits East and West markets and merges divisions, as new CEO Georges Elhedery aims to curb internal clashes and boost growth. (Capital Brief) (Reuters)

• Jamie Dimon privately backs Kamala Harris but stays silent, fearing Trump’s retaliation. (NYT)

• EY fires dozens of US employees for taking multiple online training courses simultaneously. (FT)

• Starboard's Jeff Smith urges Pfizer to overhaul its management after criticising its failure to convert Covid windfalls into shareholder value, citing US$20b ($30b) n in lost potential. (FT)

• IMF warns Australia's $3.9 trillion super sector poses financial stability risks due to easy switching into high-risk, illiquid assets. (AFR)

• Billionaire Richard White's alleged $7m gift of a waterfront mansion to a female WiseTech employee has sparked boardroom unease. (AFR)

• CSL halts late-stage trials but eyes acquisitions to boost its pipeline. (AFR)

Trading floor

M&A

• Hotel Property Investments directors urge shareholders to reject a takeover offer, stating it undervalues the company and lacks sufficient premium. (Capital Brief)

• The Pharmacy Guild urges rejection of the $8.8bn Sigma Healthcare and Chemist Warehouse merger, arguing it would dominate the sector and that concessions are merely tokenistic. (AFR)

• Golding Contractors secures a $1.6bn mining services deal with Stanmore SMC for coal mining operations. (Capital Brief)

• BGH Capital is competing with Blackstone for Singapore Post's Australian assets in a potential $1bn deal. (AFR)

• SunCable gains Singapore's conditional approval for its Australia-Asia PowerLink project to import green electricity. (Capital Brief)

• Harmony Gold Mining is interested in acquiring the $2bn Ravenswood Gold Mine, supported by its rising share price and cash reserves. (The Australian)

• Ontario Teachers Pension Plan is contemplating a sale of part of its stake in Spark NZ's mobile towers, after acquiring a majority stake valued at $1bn. (AFR)

• HSBC restructures by splitting operations into Eastern and Western markets, merging commercial and institutional banking divisions to streamline operations and reduce costs. (Capital Brief)

• Nine Entertainment may seek to bring Domain Group in-house to diversify from its volatile TV earnings after unsuccessful sales efforts. (The Australian)

• Vinyl Group will sell ads for Songtradr, boosting its media presence while Songtradr holds nearly 20% of its shares. (BNA)

Capital Markets

• Canva introduces AI image generator Dream Lab, powered by Leonardo.Ai's proprietary model, to enhance its product offerings. (Capital Brief)

• Tolu Minerals is raising $22m to fund its Tolukuma gold mine, with shares up almost 100% this year. (AFR)

• Adamantem Capital plans to IPO its Legend electrical business next year, adding to a growing IPO pipeline. (The Australian)

• Vitrafy Life Sciences is launching an IPO to raise $25-35m, targeting a $117.5m market cap by November. (AFR)

• BlackRock taps into AI frenzy with two new ETFs. (Reuters)

• Private equity management fees fall to lowest level since records began. (FT)

• Credit markets largely indifferent to US election, says JPMorgan (Bloomberg)

VC

• Commonwealth Bank’s x15 Ventures grows Unloan into a division of the bank, marking a venture capital success. (Capital Brief)

People moves

• Magellan Financial Group targets US growth as funds stabilize, with Kirsten Rahmani set to become CEO in six months. (Capital Brief)

• Former CEO Grant Colthup of ACCE Australia faces fraud charges after ASIC alleges he misused $2.2m from a Mine Digital customer who paid for Bitcoin but received nothing. (Startup Daily)

• Fletcher Building may face investor scrutiny at its AGM, with Simon Moutter suggested as a potential chairman candidate. (The Australian)

• Former Abercrombie & Fitch CEO Michael Jeffries faces charges over allegations of coercing men into participating in certain acts under false promises of modelling jobs. (NYT)

• JPMorgan sues ex-adviser for allegedly poaching US$250m ($374m) client assets after jumping to Wells Fargo, claiming he’s already lured US$24m worth of accounts. (Bloomberg)

The watercooler