☕️Brace for Impact

Good morning.

With the S&P 500 losing US$5.4 trillion ($8.84 trillion) in market value over Thursday and Friday last week, now down 17% from its February peak, Evercore has become the latest brokerage to ratchet down its outlook for 2025 courtesy of Trump’s tariff onslaught.

Bloomberg reports that one of Wall Street’s most prominent bulls, Julian Emanuel, the firm’s chief equity and quant strategist, lowered his year-end forecast on the benchmark equities gauge to 5,600 points, roughly 10% above Friday’s closing level of 5,074. RBC Capital Markets, Goldman Sachs, Barclays and Yardeni Research have all slashed year-end targets too.

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Market movers

Shares in kitchen appliance maker Breville suffered one of Friday’s steepest falls as Trump’s tariff storm wiped $21 billion off the ASX and raised the risk of higher input costs in 2026.

There’s more pain ahead, with futures pointing to a 4.3% drop at the open after a torrid end to the week in global markets.

The quick sync

• Elon Musk breaks with Trump’s tariffs, pitching a US-EU free trade zone and open borders in a far-right forum. (NYT)(Reuters)

• As David Lang writes, in an era of escalating global turmoil, Australian firms need a chief global affairs officer or risk being caught flat-footed by the next shock. (Capital Brief)

• IPO hopes dim as StubHub, Klarna and Chime shelve listings amid a multi-trillion dollar stock rout and rising global trade tensions. (WSJ)

• As Labor stalls on local content quotas, film and tv producers say $1b in lost deals and 15,000 jobs have vanished—while the US ramps up pressure to kill the plan. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Intellihub buys Engie’s EV charging biz, expands top-three market position. (AFR)

• Allegro Funds has sold its majority stake in Questas to Five V Capital in a deal valuing the industrial group at $375m. (AFR)

• EBOS denied considering the acquisition of Real Pet Food Company, leaving experts confused, despite reports of prior discussions before CEO John Cullity's departure. (The Australian)

• Herbert Smith Freehills partners have approved a merger with US firm Kramer Levin, adding $700m in revenues and expanding its US presence. (AFR)

• Buyout talks for Country Road emerge, but Woolworths likely values it above $1b and is hesitant to sell. (The Australian)

• Chris Corrigan sells $500m Kooba farm stake to PSP Investments-backed venture. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Trump’s tariffs hit markets hard; ASX set to drop as RBA’s Bullock prepares to speak. (Capital Brief)

• Over 50 countries have initiated trade talks with the US following President Trump’s new tariffs, while officials downplay the economic impact of the measures. (Reuters)

• Trump’s tariff shock rattles junk bond markets, flashing a red light for the US economy’s health. (FT)

• Taiwan will not retaliate with tariffs against the US despite trade tensions, instead focusing on removing trade barriers and expanding investment in the US to maintain strong ties. (Capital Brief)

• Vietnam offers to remove tariffs on US after Trump’s action. (Bloomberg)

• India holds fire on US tariffs, pushing for a fall trade deal with Trump that could ease duties and reshape bilateral trade. (Bloomberg)

• Netanyahu races to Washington for crisis talks as Trump’s surprise tariffs hit key Israeli industries. (Reuters)

• iPartners has joined Carlyle and Varde in a $110m debt refinancing deal to stabilise struggling mining services firm Bis Industries. (AFR)

• Australian business leaders call for a local securitisation market to drive growth, questioning banks' role and regulatory impact. (The Australian)

• Jaguar Land Rover halts US exports after Trump’s 25% car tariffs. (Capital Brief)

• Broken Hill Mines’ $94m ASX listing upsized after strong demand. (AFR)

• NextDC CEO dismisses data centre correction fears amid Microsoft pull-back. (AFR)

• Super fund execs hit by phishing scam amid broader cyberattacks. (Capital Brief)

• Dutton scraps plans to end WFH and force 41,000 public service job cuts. (Capital Brief)

• Apple extends TikTok's stay on US App Store after Trump administration assurances. (Bloomberg)

• IAM slices off $20m from DAZN’s $1.8b Foxtel loan, letting private money chase big bank returns in the private credit boom. (Capital Brief)

• REA won’t be shaken by CoStar’s entry, says Ausbil’s David Lloyd, backing the property giant and tipping overlooked stocks set to benefit from US turmoil. (Capital Brief)

VC

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People moves

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The watercooler