☕️ Bookbuild buzz

Good morning.

Bloomberg is reporting Figma’s IPO is nearing 40 times oversubscribed and guiding above the revised US$30-US$32 range. That’s hot on its own, but the structure tells us even more about where the market’s at.

Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Allen & Co are leading an auction-style bookbuild, the kind you saw more of during the 2021 peak. Investors have to state both size and price, not just the usual non-detailed orders.

Circle ran a similar structure last month, popped 168% on debut, and now trades almost 6x above issue. If Figma, which prices tomorrow, holds this momentum, it could fast-track the likes of Canva, Netskope and others already eyeing the runway.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in Viva Energy fell Tuesday after the company reported a sharp drop in tobacco sales dragged first-half convenience revenue down 10%.

The quick sync

• Labor’s push to scrap non-compete clauses for most workers sparks warnings from small business and tech groups over serious unintended consequences. (Capital Brief)

• The OECD remains agnostic on AI’s impact, saying it's too early to tell if the technology will drive a productivity boost. (Capital Brief)

• KKR makes first Australian climate play with CleanPeak, eyes more regional deals from its new transition fund. (Capital Brief)

• ASX-listed Resolution Minerals is chasing a Nasdaq listing through a Trump-backed US firm, using bold microcap tactics to ride the critical minerals wave in America. (AFR)

Trading floor

M&A

• Monadelphous wins $150m in contracts with Rio Tinto, Newmont, and others. (Capital Brief)

• Sydney Desal plant auction begins, but a pre-emptive bid likely looms. (AFR)

• Union Pacific to buy Norfolk Southern in $85b deal, creating first U.S. coast-to-coast rail operator. (Capital Brief)

• Lazard seeks buyers for HMC’s $950m Neoen renewables unit, eyeing higher resale. (The Australian)

• Solstice Media buys Australian Traveller to fuel growth plans. (AFR)

• KKR eyes more Asia-Pacific climate deals after $500m CleanPeak investment. (Capital Brief)

• HSBC may sell Australian retail bank in global streamlining move. (AFR)

• BlueScope’s sale rights are deterring bids for Whyalla Steelworks. (The Australian)

Capital Markets

• Viva Energy's sales fell 10%, but earnings remain on track. (Capital Brief)

• Capricorn Metals wins approval to expand gold output and boosts resource estimates. (Capital Brief)

• Helloworld CEO Andrew Burnes lifts earnings despite global travel headwinds. (AFR)

• APG to invest $1b in Octopus Australia's renewable energy platform. (Capital Brief)

• Banks to refund $60m and shift low-income customers to low-fee accounts after ASIC review. (Capital Brief)

• Bennelong-backed Touchstone AM fully shuts down amid investor withdrawals. (AFR)

• Woodside to operate Bass Strait gas assets, targeting $92m in synergies and new gas projects. (Capital Brief)

• Liontown misses FY25 targets, eyes cost cuts and recovery in FY26. (Capital Brief)

• Worley shares rise as LNG partner secures $23.2b funding, unlocking major contract. (Capital Brief)

• APG commits $1b+ to expand Octopus Australia's renewables platform. (AFR)

• Gold miners slide as trade deals ease tensions and gold prices fall. (Capital Brief)

• Boss Energy dives further as analysts cut targets over Honeymoon cost concerns. (Capital Brief)

• Citi pitches $1b SIS ANZ private security IPO to local investors. (AFR)

• Polynovo forecasts over 3× earnings growth in FY25 on global sales surge. (Capital Brief)

• IMF lifts global growth forecast on early trade and lower U.S. tariffs. (Capital Brief)

• Ford cuts Liontown lithium order as EV demand drops, adding pressure to miner's finances. (AFR)

• Figma IPO nears 40× oversubscription, may surpass $20b valuation. (Capital Brief)

• OECD undecided on AI's economic impact, excludes it from forecasts. (Capital Brief)

• Forrest-backed Greatland loses $1b in value after weak gold output estimates. (AFR)

VC

• Stake.com founder Ed Craven is bankrolling Maincode, a Melbourne start-up building a sovereign AI foundation model to put Australia on the global stage. (AFR)

• Lovable and Build Club launch beginner-friendly AI coding course. (Smart Company)

People moves

• After skipping a board call during a media storm over his drinking, NAB boss Andrew Irvine was back on the client circuit, typo-strewn LinkedIn post and all. (AFR)

• Deloitte is struggling to convince its top staff to accept equity partner promotions as falling unit values turn career milestones into financial setbacks. (AFR)

The watercooler