☕️ Bonus miss

Good morning.

Wall Street’s bonus pool is swelling for the first time since 2021, but don’t expect smiles from retail or commercial bankers.

Johnson Associates projects debt underwriters will be pocketing projected jumps of 25%–35%, and equity teams won’t be far behind at 15%–25%. Trading desks could see up to a 20% lift in equity and 10% in fixed income, while private credit remains the talent magnet with at least a 10% hike.

Alas, Johnson says retail and commercial banking staff are staring down flat or shrinking (up to -5%) payouts thanks to sluggish lending growth and rising credit losses. Either way, the Street is clearly betting Donald Trump’s regulatory tweaks will keep M&A sizzling into 2025.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Paladin shares got hammered on Tuesday after it slashed its FY25 production guidance and withdrew all other guidance. Langer Heinrich's ramp-up is a mess, mainly because of what sounds like pretty serious ore and water issues. The mine will be shut for at least two weeks in the second half of November for upgrades.

The quick sync

• Appen's deep pay cuts of up to 90% for contractors amid cost-cutting efforts have sparked global backlash, with workers reporting severe financial hardship and unreliable compensation. (Capital Brief)

• Amazon's top lawyer, David Zapolsky, urged Australian policymakers to avoid broad Big Tech regulations, stressing the need for tailored reforms that support innovation. (Capital Brief)

• Monash University’s review of its funding for 360info, the open-source research newswire it launched in 2022, raises uncertainty over the agency's core financial support amid sector-wide cost pressures. (Capital Brief)

• Atlassian CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes dismissed AI climate fears at the National Tech Summit, says AI's energy needs will drive the adoption of renewables due to their cost-efficiency. (Capital Brief)

• The once much-hyped genetics-testing startup 23andMe faces "substantial doubt" about survival amid revenue declines and mass layoffs. (FT)

• Labor’s $80m funding for Rex has sparked anger among rival airlines, questioning why takeover offers were ignored amid rising city airfares since Rex’s collapse. (AFR)

Trading floor

M&A

• Elliott Management is pushing for a split of Honeywell International. (Capital Brief)

• The Australian government has provided an $80m lifeline to Regional Express to prevent further disruption to regional air travel. (AFR)

• The Schiphol Group, Vinci, and Stonepeak are potential bidders for North Queensland Airports Group. (The Australian)

• Herbert Smith Freehills and Kramer Levin plan to merge to create one of the world's largest law firms. (Capital Brief)

• TCorp, a major Australian investment firm, has invested over $150m in Cyan Renewables. (AFR)

• Bigtincan's board continues to recommend the merger with Investcorp AI Acquisition Corp, despite opposition from a minority shareholder. (Capital Brief)

• Several companies, including Yancoal, Stanmore Coal, and Peabody Energy, are competing to acquire Anglo American's steelmaking coal assets. (The Australian)

• HMC Capital, led by David Di Pilla, has been unsuccessful in acquiring Neoen's Victorian portfolio. (AFR)

• Aristocrat Leisure is selling its Plarium mobile gaming business to focus on its core gaming operations. (Capital Brief)

• Alvarez & Marsal has been appointed as an advisor for the potential $4bn sale of Novotech. (AFR)

• Nourish Ingredients partners with Chinese firm CABIO Biotec to scale vegan fat production. (Capital Brief)

• United Petroleum Group is speculated to be considering a takeover bid for Retail Food Group. (The Australian)

• Wilson Asset Management (WAM) eyes potential takeover of Platinum Asset Management and has requested access to Platinum's financial data. (AFR)

• The Liechtenstein royal family's LGT Group has acquired CBA's high-net-worth wealth management business. (BNA)

Capital Markets

• European stocks and currencies plunged as Donald Trump’s tariff threats and a hawkish new administration rattled markets, spiking Treasury yields and cutting rate cut bets. (FT)

• Merchant Funds has frozen redemptions on one of its funds due to liquidity issues. (AFR)

• Wall Street bonuses are expected to increase this year, with the exception of retail and commercial banking. (Capital Brief)

• David Di Pilla's HMC Capital has added five more brokers to the team working on the IPO of its $2.6bn data center company. (The Australian)

• Quadrant Private Equity is raising a new $500m fund to invest in tech, healthcare, and direct-to-consumer businesses. (AFR)

• Aurizon increased its share buyback by $100m, maintaining earnings guidance amid expected gains in grain harvests and bulk volumes. (Capital Brief)

• ASIC sues Cbus, alleging 10,000 members faced $20m losses from insurance delays exceeding 90 days and reporting failures. (Capital Brief)

VC

• Scalare Partners has raised $4.3m through a backdoor listing on the ASX. (Startup Daily)

• Retail AI startup Hivery has gone into administration. (Capital Brief)

• Matched, a goal-matching platform, has raised nearly $500k in an angel round to help people find mentors and advisors. (Startup Daily)

• Venture capitalist Craig Blair argues that investors should tolerate "deeply flawed" founders if they can deliver strong returns. (AFR)

• Edexia has been accepted into Y Combinator and received $500k in funding. (BNA)

People moves

• Saudi Arabia's US$500b Neom project, facing delays, budget issues and leadership upheaval, saw CEO Nadhmi al-Nasr abruptly depart amidst criticisms and escalating financial strain. (WSJ)

• Healthcare analyst Melissa Benson has moved from Wilsons to Barrenjoey Capital Partners. (AFR)

• Imperium Markets has formed a new advisory board to guide its blockchain-based financial initiatives. (AFR)

• Peter Lee has released the results of his annual broker review, highlighting the most well-regarded analysts and traders. (AFR)

The watercooler