☕️BlueS(cope) Clues

Good morning.

BlueScope chair Jane McAloon’s latest public spat with wannabe suitors SGH and Steel Dynamics was interpreted by the market as a signal the takeover deal is slipping away, but that read might not have been what McAloon was going for.  

In a sharply worded letter lodged on the ASX on Thursday, McAloon outlined the ASX-listed steelmaker’s objections to the bidders’ latest proposal, arguing the “best and final offer" of $34 per share was effectively worth $31 per share once dividends the company has already promised to pay were taken into account.

A source close to the situation told Capital Brief the letter was BlueScope’s attempt at saying “we want to be constructive”. King & Wood Mallesons M&A partner Daniel Natale echoed the observation, suggesting that McAloon’s letter could be interpreted as BlueScope offering a path forward.

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Market movers

Shares in engineering group Worley fell 10.2% on Thursday after it reported a 30% drop in first-half statutory profit to $152 million, with investors spooked by $82 million in restructuring charges that dragged earnings lower.

The quick sync

• Economists support trimming the capital gains tax discount but remain split on exempting new housing to lift supply. (Capital Brief)

• John Wylie’s Policy Institute Australia urges a $20b decade long competition reform push. (Capital Brief)

• Firmus could be the ASX’s best chance in years to stop Australia’s top tech companies listing overseas, writes Kal Jamshidi. (Capital Brief)

• Allens appoints superannuation head Marc Kemp as managing partner from 1 July, replacing Richard Spurio after a decade in the role. (Capital Brief)

• AI loomed large over results season, but with few software names on the ASX, Australia’s market largely avoided the global SaaS sell-off. (Capital Brief)

• Qantas will add 8,500 jobs by 2030 but Vanessa Hudson says AI driven efficiencies could reshape corporate teams. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Star Entertainment strikes refinancing deal with WhiteHawk to aid debt and turnaround efforts. (Capital Brief)

• KKR eyes $3b Ausgrid smart meters sale, targeting core-plus infrastructure opportunity. (AFR)

• Elders to sell Killara Feedlot to Australian Meat Group for $196m, with little EPS impact. (Capital Brief)

• Future Group buys Towers Watson trustee business, moving services in-house and affecting EQT Holdings. (AFR)

• BlueScope flags bid concerns to SGH and Steel Dynamics but keeps takeover door open. (Capital Brief)

• US bidders likely to overlook Australian dollar strength in 2026 M&A deals, says Ashurst. (AFR)

• Macquarie AM may buy 50% of Victoria’s $4b land titles registry from Aware Super. (AFR)

• Victory Capital sparks bidding war with offer for Janus Henderson. (FT)

Capital Markets

• Nvidia stock climbed after forecasting record revenue of around USD78b, boosted by AI demand. (Capital Brief)

• The US imposed a 10% tariff on Australian goods, and Australia is pushing for it to be removed. (Capital Brief)

• Qantas stock dropped after weak FY26 revenue guidance overshadowed solid first-half profits. (Capital Brief)

• EnergyAustralia revamps retail arm after 86% earnings fall. (AFR)

• Super Retail’s half-year profit fell nearly 20% as higher costs offset revenue growth. (Capital Brief)

• Sigma Healthcare’s first-half profit rose 19% on strong Chemist Warehouse sales and expansion. (Capital Brief)

• Ramsay swung to a $160.7m half-year profit as stronger Australian admissions offset UK weakness. (Capital Brief)

• Chemist Warehouse sees sales boom from weight-loss drugs; cheaper versions could boost demand. (AFR)

• Lynas’ half-year profit jumped to $80m on stronger rare earth demand and higher prices. (Capital Brief)

• Cleanaway’s half-year profit rose 18%, driven by solid waste growth, prompting a guidance upgrade. (Capital Brief)

• Glue Store to exit Australia after $8.4m loss, closing or selling all stores. (Smart Company)

• Corporate Travel posted steady first-half results and aims to resume ASX trading in Q4 despite audit issues. (Capital Brief)

• Coles rejects claims its “Down Down” campaign misled shoppers on prices. (AFR)

• Karoon’s annual profit dipped 2% on weaker oil prices but still beat expectations. (Capital Brief)

• ANZ now forecasts an RBA rate hike in May amid elevated inflation. (Capital Brief)

• DroneShield surges on $22m contract deal with a western military customer. (Capital Brief)

• Cettire’s future uncertain amid months of falling sales and losses. (AFR)

• Perpetual shares gain as first-half profit soars 349%, aided by lower costs and stronger asset management. (Capital Brief)

• Bapcor reports $105m half-year loss and plans $200m equity raise. (Capital Brief)

• Australia to launch $132m AusAlert system sending loud emergency phone alerts nationwide. (Capital Brief)

• Atlas Arteria’s profit drops 39% on higher French tax, toll revenue rises. (Capital Brief)

• Worley’s first-half profit falls 30% on $82m restructuring costs; underlying earnings steady. (Capital Brief)

• IDP Education shares rally despite 25% HY profit fall on tighter immigration rules. (Capital Brief)

• AI dominated global earnings, but Australia’s market remained relatively insulated. (Capital Brief)

• Santos may demerge underperforming Australian assets in strategic review. (The Australian)

• The U.S. moves to sever Swiss bank MBaer’s access to its financial system over alleged Iran‑ and Russia‑linked money laundering. (Capital Brief)

• Wylie’s think tank calls for $20b to boost Australia’s competition policy. (Capital Brief)

• CBA flags $1b in potentially fraudulent home loans, including AI‑made documents. (AFR)

• Economists back CGT discount cut, debate carving out new homes. (Capital Brief)

• Wall Street turns to complex trades to dodge AI ‘implosions’. (FT)

• US applications for UK citizenship hit an all-time high.(Bloomberg) (FT)

• Jefferies holds USD135m exposure to collapsed UK lender MFS. (Reuters)

• Private credit’s great divide: imminent crisis or ‘no big deal’. (Bloomberg)

• Marathon's Richards says private credit software defaults could hit 15%. (Bloomberg)

VC 

• UpGuard raised $105m in a Series C round led by Springcoast Capital Partners. (Capital Brief)

• ASX must secure Firmus to keep Australia’s startups from listing overseas. (Capital Brief)

People moves

• Qantas aims to add 8,500 jobs by 2030, supporting staff re-skilling amid AI changes. (Capital Brief)

• Luke Anear returns as SafetyCulture CEO to lead AI-focused Sydney operations. (Startup Daily)

• Tim Church named sole head of Morgan Stanley Australia’s investment banking after strong performance. (AFR)

• Allens names Marc Kemp as managing partner, replacing Richard Spurio. (Capital Brief)

• WEF chief Børge Brende steps down over Epstein links; interim CEO appointed. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler